Editor's Note:

This compilation provides a summary of SUSRIS articles, interviews, essays, items of interest and special reports distributed between October 1 and December 31, 2008.  You can find more news and resources in the weekly SUSRIS newsletters listed below and on the SUSRIS.org web site (link here).  

You may also find useful resources through the index to the SUSRIS Special Sections.  These are compilations of SUSRIS articles and interviews, related media reports, web links, photos and more that address a significant topic in the relationship or developments in the Middle East that touch on US-Saudi interests.  We hope you check these SUSRIS Special Sections when there are occasions you need references not found elsewhere.

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Energy: Hard Truths - (AUSPC 2008)
Jim Burkhard
Dec 31, 2008

"..In 2005 the Secretary asked the NPC what does the future hold for oil and gas supplies and what supply and demand strategy does the Council recommend to ensure greater economic prosperity and stability for the U.S.? Pretty big question, pretty tall order. When we started to look at how to tackle this question we said, “Gee, you really cannot look at oil and gas in isolation.” Coal, nuclear, renewables, they impact oil and gas. And you cannot look at the United States as an isolated actor in the energy market. So what we needed to do was to develop a comprehensive energy assessment at the global level to develop the insights and recommendations that we came up with, and that’s what we did. The study conducted in 2006 and 2007 involved around 350 people from a range of industries and disciplines. There are of course oil and gas companies that participated in it. We also had power companies, financial institutions, universities and a number of NGOs and foreign companies because we did want to get that global reach and input for the study. At the end of the study we came up with what we called six hard truths about energy that framed the recommendations we made to the Secretary and I’ll go over each of these six hard truths and I’ll briefly summarize the recommendations we made.."

Energy: The Long View - (AUSPC 2008)
Jay Pryor
Dec 30, 2008

"..My message today is this. The Middle East has been a reliable, steadfast supplier of energy to the world for many years. And the U.S. must strive tirelessly to build and strengthen its long-term partnerships with this region. The foundation for our long-term partnerships with the Middle East is already firmly in place. My company, Chevron, for example has a 75-year partnership with the region. One of our panelists gave the very beginning, 1933, the seventh well drilled in a string of wells struck oil in Saudi Arabia. Our operations span the petroleum value chain in the Middle East from exploration and production, of course, through the value chain to petrochemicals as was mentioned, through to marketing and refining.."

Peace for the Mideast
Prince Turki al-Faisal
Dec 29, 2008

"..President-elect Barack Obama is about to inherit not just a nation entrenched in two wars but a world of instability and an entire Middle East that is sick with discord. While disputes in this region may seem eternal, there are reasons to be optimistic. If Obama joins with forces for peace and stability and acts boldly, his presidency could have a marked impact on world affairs. The best medicine yet formulated for the Israeli-Palestinian dispute is the Arab peace initiative of 2002. One must consider the prospect of "peace" in context.."

On the Eve of the GCC Summit: A Conversation with
John Duke Anthony
Dec 28, 2008

"..I’d like to start by saying that contrary to what many might expect, the topics that are likely to engage the Summit most seriously and for the longest discussions will not necessarily be the events of the previous few days or even the period immediately leading up to the summit. Certainly, such topics as Israel’s major resort to armed force against the Palestinians in Gaza; the onset of a global recession; the international financial crisis; and the continuing plummet in the price of oil will all be discussed, but they will not be the main event.." 

Iran Capturing Iraq
Dr. Kenneth Katzman
Dec 27, 2008

"..With the conventional military and WMD threat from Saddam removed, Iran now seeks to insure that Iraq can never again become a threat to Iran, whether U.S. forces are in Iraq or not. I used to ask, with panels like this, two years ago, I would ask my peers on the panel does Iran want the United States in Iraq or do they want us out of Iraq? And the answer that would universally be given two years ago is both, or neither. Well now I think the answer is becoming clear, clearer. Having secured Shia control over Iraq, Iran now -- they were ambivalent two years ago until Shia control was consolidated -- now that it is consolidated, Iran wants the United States out of Iraq.." 

Opening the Aperture on Defense Cooperation
Ambassador Barbara Bodine
Dec 26, 2008

"..I think defense has been treated, defense cooperation has been treated increasingly far too narrowly. We’re looking at things; we’re looking at places. And I don’t discount the need for the military cooperation and the sales cooperation that’s been well outlined here, nor do I discount at all the threats that the Gulf States face. The Gulf has become over the last several years, certainly since I was in Kuwait, almost a continuous string of U.S. military facilities -- bases and access that range all the way from Oman to Kuwait. The sales figures Doctor Cordesman has very well outlined those. They are astronomical and we’ve had longstanding engagements with the militaries. Mr. Blanchard has described them as legacy arrangements. These are not insignificant and they are not unimportant and they do need to go forward but I do think we need to open the aperture considerably when we think about defense cooperation both from our point of view and from the Gulf States’ point of view.."

Saudi-U.S. Cooperation: Building Dialogue
Amb Robert Jordan
Dec 23, 2008

"..One of my very most esteemed interlocutors in those days was a gentleman who had left public service at that time and gone into the private sector, thankfully briefly. Prince Turki al Faisal became a good friend and advisor in many ways during those very difficult years in which we were trying to both preserve the relationship and figure out how we jointly were going to approach the problems of the terrorist threat, the unknown situation within the Kingdom. I certainly echo what Ford Fraker has said, that the Saudis, particularly after the bombings in Riyadh in May of 2003 and then later the attacks in Jeddah in 2004, stepped up their game in a dramatic way so that we really now have captured or killed virtually all the leadership of Al Qaeda in the Kingdom. Doesn’t mean there is not a threat. There is of course. But the vigilance that we have seen that has been dramatic and even while it is dramatically underreported in the press in the Western world.."

Saudi Arabia's 2009 Budget: Jadwa's Forecast
Dec 23, 2008

"..King Abdullah presented the Kingdom's 2009 budget yesterday. It will be the largest budget in Saudi Arabia's history with $126.7 billion in expenditures based on revenues of $109.3 billion and a deficit of $17.3 billion. The 2009 budget, according to a Saudi Gazette report, "will continue to focus on: optimizing use of available resources giving priority to projects that ensure sustainable and balanced development as well as more employment opportunities and job creation, infrastructure and social services, especially education, health, social affairs, municipal services, water and sewage, and roads, projects related to science and technology and e-government capital expenditures to boost economic activities and enhance the prospects of economic growth.".."

Saudi Arabia's 2009 Budget - Analysis
Dec 23, 2008

"..The 2009 budget offers two surprises. First, it is expansionary at a time when the global economy is in a spending turmoil. Saudi Arabia outlined a spending program that should offer encouragement to the private sector. Second, actual spending in 2008 increased by SR100 billion ($26.66 billion), which is more than 24 percent of budgeted spending. The authorities are quite aware that 2009 will be a difficult year for oil revenues and a deficit is forecast of SR65 billion. This could easily be covered by tapping into the huge foreign asset pool of more than $450 billion in foreign assets managed by the Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency (SAMA). People tend to have short memories, hence we should not brush aside the fact that in 2008 Saudi Arabia registered its largest surplus in its history (SR590 billion) while other countries in the G-20 are trying to contain their budget deficits and some are even on the verge of receiving International Monetary Fund (IMF) bailouts.."

Saudi Arabia's 2009 Budget - An Overview
Dec 23, 2008

"..Saudi Arabia [Mon., Dec 22] announced an SR475 billion ($126.7 billion) economic stimulus budget for 2009, allocating more money for education and increasing public spending by 15.8 percent (SR65 billion), despite a sharp decline in oil prices that have dipped to $43 a barrel. Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Abdullah, who unveiled the Kingdom’s largest-ever budget during a Cabinet session at Khoraim Gardens, said a record SR225 billion has been allocated for new projects and SR122 billion is slated for education, training and scholarship. The king said the budget allocation for new projects in 2009 was 36 percent more than the allocations made in 2008.." 

Consequences of the Oil Price Crash
Jean-Francois Seznec
Dec 21, 2008

"Professor Jean-Francois Seznec of Georgetown University recently spoke with Todd Feinburg about how the crash in world crude oil prices is affecting oil producing countries. Seznec, fresh on the heels of a tour of the region, shares his insights through the Web site "Middle East Interviews," a nationally syndicated radio talk show hosted by Feinburg. They walked through the consequences of declining oil revenues and the prospects for future oil pricing in Saudi Arabia, Iran, the UAE and elsewhere."

Defense Cooperation: Industry Perspective
Jeffrey McCray
Dec 20, 2008

"..As a defense contractor there isn’t really a way or a forum to look at defense cooperation on a GCC wide basis. Defense cooperation ranges or can range from the delivery of equipment and services on individual contracts through local assembly, local manufacture programs, to the establishment of long-term partnerships, which we have done in some countries in the region, and potentially to the establishment of joint ventures, which we have also done in various places in the Gulf.." 

Election 2008: Arab World Views - (AUSPC 2008)
Media Panel (Part 2)
Dec 19, 2008

"..So the source of information for the general American public is TV news media, primarily Fox News, which has many, many more viewers than say CNN or BBC certainly. If you look at Fox News and if you look at just the three top TV news media, a firm out of Germany called Media Tenor did a media content analysis over the period of, the beginning of 2007 until March of 2008 and looked at how Islam and Muslims were portrayed in that time period of about 18 months and what they found was that the majority of coverage on Islam was negative. They actually went and did a qualitative analysis of all statements made. And in news, this isn’t just editorials, it should be neutral. It shouldn’t be positive, it shouldn’t be negative. But when you have the majority as negative that’s alarming.."

Oil on a Slide: OPEC Acts, Again
Dec 18, 2008

"The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) yesterday agreed to slash 2.2 million barrels from its daily production — its single largest cut ever — while bloc outsiders Russia and Azerbaijan announced their own cutbacks of hundreds of thousands of barrels from the market. “I hope we surprised you,” OPEC President Chekib Khelil said when asked whether the size of the cut would shock moribund oil markets into an upward trend. “If you’re not surprised we need to do something about it.” And yet markets weren’t impressed."

Iran and Iraq: Challenges in Transition
Wayne White
Dec 18, 2008

"..On Iraq, I think it's clear from the intense wrangling over the U.S.-Iraqi Status of Forces Agreement, the SOFA, or a memorandum of understanding, or whatever title this agreement will eventually bear in recent months that Iraqis want the American role in Iraq to be reduced quite considerably. Since this is likely to occur regardless of what Washington wants or doesn't want, it's best for all concerned on the American side to get used to the idea that for better or worse, the Iraqis will be progressively taking over at a pace far faster than would have been anticipated just six months ago.."

The Centrality of Saudi Arabia
Amb Wyche Fowler
Dec 16, 2008

"..I want to suggest to the new President, whoever he may be, that the most important role for him to play as he looks at the Middle East is to recognize the centrality of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in all geopolitical, religious issues in that region. There will not be an acceptable solution, acceptable in the Middle East and acceptable to the United States of America in Afghanistan, in Iraq without the centrality of Saudi Arabia in that process. There will not be an acceptable solution to the issues that we have with the Iranians without the advice if not consent, acquiescence, of Saudi Arabia to our new policies. And I hope that with a new Administration that the State Department will understand, as we seem to forget -- King Abdullah’s Interfaith Dialogue Initiative has reminded us -- that King Abdullah is not only the chief executive, the chief monarch of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, his title is Abdullah Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques. And he is looked to by all of Islam not only to protect and revere the Two Holy Mosques in Saudi Arabia but I submit by extension to make sure that Islam’s third holiest site in Jerusalem is protected and revered.."

Saudi Arabia and the Global Financial Crisis
Brad Bourland
Dec 16, 2008

"The world is passing through an unprecedented financial crisis. Global financial conditions worsened to the point that the financial system almost ceased operating in early October. Conditions have since improved, but not without massive wealth destruction, as banks have been forced to write down hundreds of billions of dollars, huge financial institutions have gone bankrupt or been bailed out by governments and stock markets have plunged." 

Regional Defense Challenges: A New Administration, A New Congress
Christopher Blanchard - (AUSPC 2008)
Dec 15, 2008

"..To date the Bush Administration working with Congress has supported a variety of longstanding and new security cooperation programs to respond to these conditions and other conventional and unconventional threats. These programs include what I call legacy programs. These are longstanding programs, for example with Saudi Arabia, such as the Saudi Arabian National Guard modernization program, the Military Training Mission – these continue to serve as the principal U.S. military liaison relationships with the Saudi National Guard and the Ministry of Defense and Aviation. They continue to operate through the mechanism of the foreign military sales program and both programs in the last 12 months, 16 months have seen potential sales notifications to Congress that will extend the programs commitment and activities well into the next Administration.." 

Manama Dialogue: Continuity and Commitment
Robert M. Gates
Dec 14, 2008

"..The President-elect asked me to stay on as Secretary of Defense and, as you know, I accepted. I am honored to continue leading the Department of Defense, and am doing everything in my power to ensure a smooth transition. On that note, I should mention that more extensive planning has been done across the government in preparation for this transition than at any time I can remember – and I have worked for seven presidents, soon to be eight. So anyone who thought that the upcoming months might present opportunities to “test” the new administration would be sorely mistaken. President Obama and his national security team, myself included, will be ready to defend the interests of the United States and our friends and allies from the moment he takes office on January 20th.."

AUSPC 2008 Panel - Geo-political Dynamics: Iran and Iraq - Engagement is the Answer - Gen. Joseph P. Hoar
Dec 13, 2008

"..As you recall, the subject is challenges and opportunities for Iraq and Iran. One of the difficulties that we face is that we can change neither geography nor history of the region, and both are really important. And I'm not going to go into any great detail, but with respect to the geography, and General Scowcroft touched on this a moment ago, the solutions to both of these problems are in some measure greater or lesser, dependent on the neighbors. And if you start over in Central Asia, with India, with Afghanistan, go up into Central Asia, Russia, the countries in the Caucuses, Turkey, Ukraine, obviously Syria, Lebanon, Israel, not to mention the GCC countries and Egypt, all of these countries have a role to play to a greater or lesser degree. And we can't expect that part of it to change.."

Energy: The Integral Element - (AUSPC 2008)
Nabilah Al-Tunisi
Dec 11, 2008

"..Energy is an essential driver of the world's economic health and social well-being. And in some shape or form energy touches the daily life of all of us.. ..Energy has been an integral element in the relationship between the United States and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia for the last three quarters of a century. This year, in fact, Saudi Aramco is celebrating the 75th anniversary of signing the original concession agreement between the Saudi government and the Standard Oil Company of California, predecessor of today's Chevron, which opened the Kingdom to oil exploration and marked the birth of our company.." 

Hajj Reflections
Siraj Wahab
Dec 11, 2008

"It has been a hugely successful Haj. The efforts of the Saudi government have been lauded again and again by pilgrims in Mina. The organization of the stoning ritual through the use of the new Jamrat complex was excellent. It is inconceivable that there could ever be another stampede tragedy. As we write, it is 5 p.m. and the pilgrims who are leaving on Wednesday from Mina are rushing to avail themselves of transport and be out of the city within the hour. Pilgrims not outside the environs of Mina by sunset must remain in their tents for one more night." 

Election 2008: Arab World Views -  (AUSPC 2008)
Media Panel (Part 1)
Dec 10, 2008

"..As far as the Middle East is concerned the region that now during the George Bush reign we call it the Greater Middle East. after George Bush's tsunami, or rampaging years, it's more fragmented, politically, economically it's facing a great deal of uncertainty with few islands of exceptions, such as in the Gulf, but even there, there's new uncertainty on the horizon. There is something that you haven't seen in recent years, that is the rising tensions, the sectarian tensions between the Sunni and the Shia. Various entrenched Arab autocratic regimes as well as Iran, which is worse than autocratic, are facing tremendous social, economic challenges, not only from assertive and at times armed groups but also from the growing army of young men and women who are facing an uncertain future. Many of them are underemployed, many of them will be unemployed.." 

Energy: A Complex Interdependence - (AUSPC 2008)
Karen Harbert
Dec 9, 2008

"..There really is no issue that brings U.S.-Arab relations into starker relief than energy. It really highlights the opportunities and challenges of our relationship. It reveals a complex interdependence. It embodies the risks and rewards of collaboration. But most importantly, I think it shows the importance of maintaining and sustaining a healthy relationship between the Arab world and the United States people.." "..Demand for energy is going to go up by over 50 percent between now and 2030. Seventy percent of that demand is going to be in the developing world. Electricity demand is going to go up by 100 percent, and yet one and a half billion people don't have access to electricity.."

Regional Defense: A Need for Credibility, Effectiveness and Transparency
(AUSPC 2008) - Anthony Cordesman
Dec 8, 2008

"..I have watched people in the GCC military now for more than twenty years set the right priorities. I watched U.S. commanders focus on the right goals. But the results, while they have often been a steady improvement in the military capabilities of individual states have not been to create an effective Gulf Cooperation Council or to create the climate where the role of the United States and outside powers can be minimized, and the role of the Gulf can be strengthened.."

Media Note: 60 Minutes - "The Oil Kingdom"
Dec 7, 2008

"THE OIL KINGDOM - Despite the pledge of President-elect Barack Obama and others to lessen America's use of foreign oil, Saudi Arabia - the world's largest oil supplier - isn't worried. That's what Saudi officials told Lesley Stahl when she visited the oil kingdom and toured its vast petroleum facilities, which are gearing up to produce even more. Richard Bonin and Kathy Liu are the producers."

A Hajj Diary: A Reluctant Pilgrim's Grudging Return Home
Faiza Saleh Ambah - Part 5
Dec 7, 2008

"..Tradition says that the Kaaba was built by Adam and rebuilt by Abraham and the descendants of Noah. It is known as the House of God and is the center of our circumambulations. At one point, the crowd circling the large cube slows as we make our way around four Lebanese women causing a traffic jam. They have stopped to pray, kneeling on the marble skirt that surrounds the Kaaba, and just in front of a shrine that contains the footsteps of Abraham. Their husbands are standing and holding hands, forming a human chain around them.." 

A Hajj Diary: Pelting the Pillars, Again
Faiza Saleh Ambah - Part 4
Dec 6, 2008

"..Like soldiers preparing for battle, we put on our face masks, strap on our waist pouches, and count our pebbles - we need 21 today, seven for each of the Jamaraat pillars. We're told that tradition dictates that we go from the smallest obelisk to the largest. They represent the devil's three appearances before Abraham. Pilgrims throw pebbles to send away Satan in the same way Abraham is said to have done. There's a sense of excitement and adventure and danger as we move slowly behind a camp employee carrying a banner with the name of our camp, The House of Faith. "If he drops the banner, I'll pick it up and continue walking," jokes Reem. "You guys just follow me.".."

A Hajj Diary: A Pilgrim Fends Off Temptation with Pebbles and Prayers
Faiza Saleh Ambah - Part 3
Dec 5, 2008

"..After dawn prayers Saturday in Mina, the 10 of us squeeze into the four-wheel drive heading for Arafat, where we will spend the day in prayer until sunset. We're seated in the back and I ask my sisters Reem and Taghreed if, like me, they find our guide attractive. Reem's answer is a smile. She intones the Talbiya (the oft-repeated hajj prayer): "Here I am God. Here I am. Answering your call. Here I am, God, at your service.." "What? You mean I shouldn't even think that?" I ask. "You can think it, but then take it out of your mind," Taghreed says. "And not share it," adds Reem.."

A Hajj Diary - On Hajj, Battling Sin and Doubt - Faiza Saleh Ambah
Part 2
Dec 4, 2008

"..For the next five days I'm asked to concentrate only on God. "We're not going to talk about guys, or gossip or anything," Reem warns me. "I'm going to take advantage of the next five days and I don't want the two of you to distract me," she says, but I think she means mainly me. Consider hajj a short board meeting, says my cousin Allal. "Concentrate on prayers and God and trying to be a better person during the next five days and forget everything else." As we head to our rooms to get ready for ihram (state of hajj-related sacredness; also the pilgrims' garb), she looks closely at my hands. "Is that nail polish? And on your feet too?" She shakes her head in consternation and fetches cotton and nail polish remover."

Saudi National Security and the Saudi-US Strategic Partnership
By Anthony Cordesman 
Dec 4, 2008

"The US faces major problems in restoring its reputation and strategic partnerships all over the world. Every opinion poll that has addressed the subject has shown that the last eight years have done immense damage to America's position. There are few areas, however, where US action is more urgent than in the Gulf and in dealing with Saudi Arabia. The US has now agreed to withdraw from Iraq. There never was a significant chance that Iraq would emerge as a stable strategic partner, and it is now clear that any degree of partnership will be limited and constantly subject to the uncertainties of Iraqi politics and sectarian and ethnic tensions. It has been nearly 30 years since anyone could think of Iran as a "pillar" in US security, and it is clear that even the most successful dialog with Iran will still leave the need to deter and defend against Iranian opportunism in the Gulf. The worst case is a nuclear-armed Iran that seeks some form of regional hegemony."

A Very Critical Time:  Examining Iran and Iraq  (AUSPC 2008)
Lt. Gen. Brent Scowcroft
Dec 3, 2008

"..It’s a very critical time, and the title of the conference “Transitioning the White House” is very important. Now we’re supposed to talk about Iran and Iraq, but I want to make a couple of preliminary comments because I think there’s some danger in separating the various issues of the region because they tend to spill over on each other in a variety of ways. And what I want to say is just a few words about the Palestinian peace process. I think it is a major source of the problems in the region. It’s a major source of anti-Americanism in the region. It’s a major rallying point for extremists in the region. And the solution to that problem would make a great contribution to the other issues that beset us in the region.."

A Hajj Diary: The Pilgrimage to Mecca - One Woman's Journey
Faiza Saleh Ambah - Part 1
Dec 3, 2008

"..Spending a week with two million Muslims from more than 120 countries, performing rituals more ancient than Islam itself, in the largest single gathering at one place for one purpose in the world, appeals more to the journalist than the Muslim in me. I am wary of, but no less excited by, the idea of an appointment in the desert with God. Pilgrims performing the hajj, which starts Jan. 30 (the eighth day of the last month of the Muslim lunar year), seem to be answering a call, keeping a promise. "Here I am lord, at your service, here I am," is the chant that announces the start of the pilgrimage. As a Muslim with more questions than certainties, I wonder at the meaning of the daily rituals that make up the pilgrimage: the seven circuits around the Kaaba (the cube-shaped stone structure in the middle of the Grand Mosque) in Mecca, the reenactment of the search for water by Ishmael's mother Hagar, the march to and from the desert, and the vigil on Mount Mercy on the plains of Arafat, where the last verses of the Koran were revealed.." 

Foundations for Change in the Arab World
Muna Abu Sulayman
Dec 2, 2008

"..These are some of the questions that we face at the foundation and I’m sure many of you on a daily basis. And in the fallout of the current global economic crisis the amount of people living in poverty is sure to skyrocket. We are going to end up paying a very high price for poverty, which is why we need to work together to find lasting global solutions to end poverty and not just fix outdated systems. The United Nations Development Program, which I am an Ambassador of, has eight millennium goals. To end poverty, to improve people’s lives, improve living conditions, and they are very well known. The eighth goal, the last one, the one that calls for global partnership for development is not as well known. Yet out of all the goals, it is the most important. Otherwise we will never be able to tackle the enormous amount of problems facing humanity. Like the rest of the world there is a growing number of Arabic mavericks. I hate saying that word, but they really are mavericks. Businessmen who have taken the task of changing the world. And they do it through a lot of philanthropy.."

SUSRIS EXCLUSIVE - The Hajj in Perspective: A Conversation with David Long
Dec 2, 2008

"..The Hajj is one of the five pillars or the foundation of Islam and therefore it is the obligation of everyone who is physically and financially able to do so to make the Hajj once in their lifetimes. Pilgrimages to Makkah actually predate Islam, but the Hajj is considered by all Muslims to be divinely inspired by God as set down in the Qur'an and the Sunna. It is one of the Five Pillars of Islam, the others being: the profession of faith - "there is no God but God and Mohammed is the messenger of God"; Zakat or charity; prayer five times a day, and fasting during Ramadan. The rites are based on the instructions Muhammad gave in his Farewell Hajj just before he died. They have remained virtually unchanged to this day.." 

The Hajj and Its Impact on Saudi Arabia and the Muslim World
David E. Long
Dec 1, 2008

"Each year, 2 million Muslims perform the Hajj, or Great Pilgrimage to Makkah. One of the Five Pillars of Islam, the Hajj is required of all believers once in their lifetimes provided they are physically, mentally and financially able. For the duration of the Hajj and the traditional visit to al-Madinah afterward, the Saudi government must insure that the Hajjis are provided with adequate housing (mainly in tents), food, water, health and sanitation, ground transportation, and public safety and security." 

SUSRIS EXCLUSIVE - Moving in the Right Direction
A Conversation with Ambassador Ford Fraker
Part 3
Dec 1, 2008

"..We’re clearly on an upward trajectory. The dark days of 9/11 are well behind us, as are the events of 2003 and 2004 in the Kingdom when there were pitched battles in the street against extremists, Westerners were targeted and killed and compounds invaded. During those years, a number of major international financial institutions and companies left the Kingdom. Both sides were deeply shocked by these events. As I said at the conference today, CIA Director, General Hayden will tell you this is the best, most productive counter terrorism partnership we have in the world, especially when you couple it with the fact that King Abdullah clearly is winning the minds and hearts battle with the populace.."

Kingdom Steps Up Hajj Preparations
P.K. Abdul Ghafour
Nov 29, 2008

"Saudi Arabia has stepped up preparations for the annual pilgrimage, the largest gathering of Muslims in the world, which begins on Dul Hijjah 8 of the lunar calendar. Nearly three million pilgrims from around the world are expected to perform Haj this year. Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Abdullah has instructed public and private Haj agencies to mobilize all their resources to make this year’s Haj operation a resounding success. The government has implemented a number of new projects to help pilgrims perform their duties peacefully and comfortably.." 

USCENTCOM and the Future: Establishing the Right Strategic Priorities
Anthony Cordesman
Nov 28, 2008

"..The U.S. must do more than find solutions to dealing with its withdrawal from Iraq, and finding ways to reverse the course of the Afghan conflict. It needs to rethink the overall structure of its military posture and strategy in the Middle East, Central Asia, and South Asia. This requires the U.S. to address its diplomatic and aid efforts as part of a broad approach to the region, but it also requires a new focus for USCENTCOM and significant changes in the way the US approaches the entire area of operations. The Burke Chair has developed a summary briefing on what these changes should be, and the key areas that the new Administration and USCENTCOM commanders should examine. This briefing is entitled "USCENTCOM and the Future: Establishing the Right Strategic Priorities".."

SUSRIS EXCLUSIVE - Managing the Marriage - A Conversation with Ambassador Ford Fraker - Part 2
Nov 26, 2008

"It probably took me about 27 seconds to figure out the visa issue was the single biggest impediment to the bilateral relationship moving forward. I was warned about it before I arrived in Riyadh and it was instantly crystal clear and it moved right to the top of the list. The visa issue had become sort of a litmus test for the overall relationship and the commitment of the United States to Saudi Arabia. Every time I went to see senior Saudi officials they did not want to talk about Iran or Iraq. They wanted to talk about visas. It was overwhelming the relationship.." 

SUSRIS EXCLUSIVE - Managing the Marriage - A Conversation with Ambassador Ford Fraker - Part 1
Nov 24, 2008

"..We are seven years past 9/11, which was truly a tragic event. From the intelligence we’ve collected since then, we know for a fact that 9/11 was a deliberate attempt by Osama bin Laden to split the Saudi-US relationship. Bin Laden’s primary objective was Saudi Arabia and the moderate Muslim countries, not America. He knew full well that he would have no chance at striking Saudi Arabia effectively, or the other moderates, if they were closely allied to America. So every time I sit with a senator or a congressman, and the phrase “15 of the 19” is brought up as a reason for not doing something we should be doing, then bin Laden is winning. Both countries are being manipulated by someone who had a political agenda.."  

Security Cooperation in the Gulf: Actions -- Rather than Words and Good Intentions - Anthony Cordesman
Nov 22, 2008

"..The Southern Gulf states and the U.S. must make major changes in their national security posture over the next few years. U.S. withdrawals from Iraq, the rising potential threat from Iran, and the need to meet new security challenges all require substantial changes in the security posture and forces of each Gulf country and in the size, structure, and deployment of U.S. forces in the Gulf. Cooperation between the Gulf states is only one aspect of these force shifts but it is a critical one. The Burke Chair at CSIS has developed a new briefing on such cooperation that strongly challenges the idea that Iran is an emerging hegemon in the region. It draws on a briefing prepared for the 17th annual policymakers conference of the National Council on US-Arab Relations.." 

Update on Global and Local - Financial Conditions - Nov 19
Brad Bourland
Nov 19, 2008

"..Pressure within Opec is mounting for another oil production cut, possibly in advance of its next scheduled meeting in Algeria on December 17 (there is an informal Opec meeting in Cairo on November 29). We think that in the prevailing economic environment, most Opec producers would be content with prices of between $70 and $80 per barrel. Unless oil recovers to this level, Opec is expected to cut production further this year and during the first half of next year. Lower oil prices and production will slow the rate of economic growth in Saudi Arabia next year and cut the budget and current account surpluses. While the collapse in oil prices has clear negative impacts on the Saudi economy, prices of other important commodities have also fallen fast as concerns about demand have intensified. Since the end of June the Reuters commodity price index has dropped by 48 percent. The price falls are across the range of commodities, covering industrial raw materials, food products and precious metals.."

Saudi VLCC Hijacked by Somali Pirates
Nov 18, 2008

"..The seizure of an Aramco oil tanker, the Sirius Star, brings home to many people the extent of both the scourge and the dangers it poses for the Kingdom’s well-being if not confronted. This part of the world has always lived on trade, maritime trade in particular. Oil has not changed that. It has magnified it. These pirates, unless stopped, will continue their murderous, pillaging ways. This will not be the only tanker seized. There will be others. With cargoes around two million barrels, the pickings are just too tempting.." 

"Culture of Peace" Conference - President Bush's Remarks at the United Nations
Nov 14, 2008

"..Mr. Secretary General, distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen: Laura and I are pleased to be back here at the United Nations, and I am grateful for the opportunity to once again address the General Assembly. I want to thank King Abdallah of Saudi Arabia for his leadership and for convincing us all to come together to speak about faith. I appreciate the participants who recognize the transformative and uplifting power of faith. One of my core beliefs is that there is an Almighty God -- and that every man, woman, and child on the face of this Earth bears His image. Many years ago, faith changed my life. Faith has sustained me through the challenges and the joys of my Presidency. And faith will guide me for the rest of my days.."

"Culture of Peace" Conference - King Abdullah's Remarks at the United Nations
Nov 13, 2008

"..Throughout history, preoccupation with differences between the followers of religions and cultures has engendered intolerance, causing devastating wars and considerable bloodshed without any sound logical or ideological justification. It is high time for us to learn from the harsh lessons of the past and concur on the ethics and ideals in which we all believe. Matters on which we differ will be decided by our Omniscient Creator on the Day of Judgment. Every tragedy suffered in today’s world is ultimately a result of the abandonment of the paramount principle enunciated by all religions and cultures: The roots of all global crises can be found in human denial of the eternal principle of justice. Terrorism and criminality are the enemies of every religion and every civilization. They would not have appeared except for the absence of the principle of tolerance. The alienation and the sense of loss which affects the lives of many of or young, leading them to drugs and crime, became widespread due to the dissolution of family bonds that Almighty God intended to be firm and strong. Our dialogue, conducted in a constructive manner, should, by the grace of God, revive and reinstate these lofty ideals among peoples and nations. No doubt, God willing, this will constitute a glorious triumph of what is most noble over what is most evil in human beings and will grant mankind hope of a future in which justice, security and a decent life will prevail over injustice, fear and poverty.."

A Call for Unity: King Abdullah Addresses the UN
Nov 13, 2008

"..Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Abdullah yesterday urged world leaders attending a historic conference on interfaith dialogue at the United Nations to learn lessons from the past and establish justice in order to end violence. “We say today with a single voice that religions through which Almighty God sought to bring happiness to mankind should not be turned into instruments to cause misery,” the king said in his keynote speech at the Culture of Peace Conference organized by the UN General Assembly. “Human beings are created equals and partners on this planet. Either they can live together in peace and harmony or they will inevitably be consumed by the flames of misunderstanding, malice and hatred.”.." 

Interfaith Dialogue: "Culture of  Peace" Meet at the United Nations
Nov 12, 2008

"..General Assembly President voices hope that global meeting on values will spur action - UN News Centre -- "..The General Assembly President expressed optimism today that the high-level “Culture of Peace” gathering, which kicks off tomorrow with the leaders and senior officials from dozens of nations, will hasten action on such global obstacles as hunger and poverty. Speaking to reporters in New York, Miguel D’Escoto underscored that the two-day Assembly plenary meeting at United Nations Headquarters is not about religion, which he said can be a “very divisive subject.”.." 

Saudi Interfaith Dialogue/UN "Culture of Peace" Conference
Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon Q&A
Nov 11, 2008

"..We need to be very realistic and practical. In fact, the world has suffered a lot because of the lack of appreciation, the lack of understanding, and mutual respect and the differences of opinions in religions and faith and culture. This is a good start. As you may know, a number of initiatives have been made by a number of countries in the United Nations. And all these initiatives should have some complementary effect. Among them, the Saudi King's initiative will also be very important. We also have an Alliance of Civilizations. And the high-level representation of Member States at this time also demonstrates the willingness of the Member States to have some better understanding and more appreciation of different cultures and different faiths and religions. I sincerely hope that this will be a very good start.." 

President-Elect Obama: Reactions
Nov 6, 2008

Saudi king seeks sense of Obama policy on U.S. trip - Andrew Hammond - Reuters - "Wary about the direction of U.S. policy in the region, Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah will have a chance to put out feelers to president-elect Barack Obama during a visit to the United States next week. The Saudi monarch and his delegation will attend a two-day United Nations session in New York on an "interfaith dialogue" he launched this year and then attend a summit of world leaders in Washington on the global financial crisis. "They will do their best to sound out what the president is going to be like, but these sorts of things always take time," said Saudi political analyst Khaled al-Dakhil. Obama's election pitch featured a promise to end U.S. dependence on Middle East oil within 10 years, open dialogue with Iran and a draw down of the U.S. presence in Iraq. Those all have the potential to deeply trouble the Saudi leadership, which has relied on an oil-for-security U.S. alliance since the 1940s that has survived regional upheavals and kept the Saud family in power against often tall odds. A message of congratulation from the 85-year-old king to Obama, 47, betrayed what was on the Saudi leadership's mind.." 

West Asia and the Next President: More of the Same Won't Do
Ambassador Chas W. Freeman, Jr. (USFS, Ret.)
Oct 31, 2008

"..The next president must adjust our policies to make them more effective. But he must also help Americans to persuade the world that we are still fitting partners in the pursuit of global prosperity and tranquility. Nowhere is this task more urgent than in the realm of Islam. In my travels in Arab and Muslim lands I find the same nostalgia for America as it was before 9/11 that one encounters in other parts of the world. No one likes how we now behave or what we have become, but they remember when we behaved with greater humility and when we more closely resembled what we aspire to be. They admire that America. They are ready to work with it, if it can be restored. The next president must restore that America. The world is ready to meet him halfway.."

Saudi Banking Health: Central Bank Governor Update
Oct 28, 2008

"..The governor of the Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency (SAMA), Hamad Al-Sayari, said yesterday that no Saudi bank faces liquidity problem and that the stock market downturn does not have anything to do with the country’s fundamentals but is due to people’s fear. Addressing a press conference here, Al-Sayari said SAMA expects the nonoil sector in the Kingdom to maintain the growth rate of the past year -- between 5 percent and 6 percent. "Government spending rose above 19 percent over the past nine months, while the volume of bank loans rose 39 percent in the third quarter of this year," Al-Sayari said. Hinting at the government's plan to go ahead with development projects in anticipation of a surplus budget this year, Al-Sayari said: "Economic growth will be strong by the end of the current year and in the next year, particularly in the nonoil sector."

Update on Global and Local - Financial Conditions - Oct 25
Brad Bourland
Oct 25, 2008

"..Opec has indicated that if oil prices continue to slide it could meet again before its next scheduled meeting in December. Analysts will be watching how closely Opec members comply to their new quotas, as historically compliance has generally not been strong. We think there is a chance that oil prices will drop further as the deterioration in the outlook for demand has been accompanied by a reversal in speculative positions. It takes some time to physically lower oil production so it will be a few months before the real effect of the production cut back can be judged. Under the new agreement Saudi Arabia’s production quota was reduced by 466,000 barrels per day from 8.943 million barrels per day to 8.477 million barrels per day. Production has been persistently above quota over the last 12 months, though we understand that it had already been cut back over the last two months. Lower production combined with lower prices will impact negatively on economic performance. Nonetheless, we believe that the strong internal growth dynamics within Saudi Arabia means that economic performance will remain healthy.."

The Vulnerability of Arab Economies
Anouar Boukhars
Oct 25, 2008

"..The perfect financial storm now descending on the Middle East threatens to derail the economic ambitions of the oil rich Gulf states and wipe out the modest economic growth and progress witnessed in the non-oil producing areas of the region. Perhaps even more troubling, the crisis has exposed the vulnerability and inadequacy of the institutional foundations of Middle Eastern economies and raised serious questions about the economic judgment of the region's authoritarian leaders and their ability to weather the current financial tsunami.."

OPEC Slashes 1.5 MBPD from Production Ceiling
Oct 25, 2008

"..The Extraordinary Meeting having been convened in order to allow the Conference to discuss the current global financial crisis, the world economic situation and their impacts on the oil market, the Conference began by emphasizing that it shared the concern of the international community – of which OPEC Member Countries are an integral part – over ongoing developments in financial markets. The Conference observed that the financial crisis is already having a noticeable impact on the world economy, dampening the demand for energy, in general, and oil in particular. This slowdown in oil demand is serving to exacerbate the situation in a market which has been over-supplied with crude for some time, an observation which the Organization has been making since earlier this year. Moreover, forecasts indicate that the fall in demand will deepen, despite the approach of winter in the northern hemisphere.."

Needed: A New Vision of Inter-State Cooperation
Soli Ozel
Oct 24, 2008

"..The next decade will undoubtedly be a hectic one in the region. One does not have to be a genius to divine as much. The American-led war against Iraq both brought to an end a particular strategic balance that existed in the region since the modern Middle East was shaped and destroyed the social basis of political power in Iraq--with serious spillover effects elsewhere. In addition, the failure of that American enterprise, or at least the failure of its originally declared aims, combined with the unwise disinterest of the Bush administration in the moribund Middle East peace process, created a vacuum. As in all such cases, this vacuum is being filled by diverse regional actors.."  

Saudi Strategies to Counter Terrorism: The War of Ideas
Abdullah Ansary
Oct 20, 2008

"..The global war on terror - what have we learned?.. ..Obviously we have learned that countering terrorism requires coordinated multilateral efforts that go well beyond operations to capture or kill terrorist leaders. Fighting terrorists has become a "war of ideas." Terrorists have crafted and disseminated a compelling narrative that resonates with audiences around the world, expanding and energizing their ranks. Their "center of gravity" - their source of strength - are these ideas and their ability to spread them. Al-Qaeda propagates a message that combines dubious religious justifications with tales of an imaginary "Clash of Civilizations." Muslims around the world are told, by an impressive media infrastructure run by the terrorists that it is their individual religious duty to join the terrorists and take up arms in defense of Islam against the West. Military force alone will never beat this narrative and, in some cases, simply makes the problem worse. As long as this narrative can be effectively propagated, it will draw in new converts to the terrorists' radical ideology. Going on the offensive against terrorists requires attacking their center of gravity, their narrative.." 

Energy, Recession and Responsibility
Oct 18, 2008

"..There is, however, a real economic link between high oil prices and recession. The one has helped triggered the other -- as Saudi Arabia and one or two other producers warned might happen on more than one occasion over the summer when the oil price rocketed. It has been seen in airlines going bust or airline staff being laid off because of high aviation fuel prices; in rising prices, particularly of food, because of rising transport costs; in other businesses forced to either lay off staff or close their doors because of uncontrollable energy costs; in people canceling vacations and cutting back on spending because of inflation triggered, again by soaring energy prices.. ..some oil producers have to accept a degree of responsibility. Last month, when OPEC, much against Saudi Arabia’s advice, voted to cut production in an effort to keep prices high, they acted — like the speculators and the bankers — from self-interest. They could not see, or would not see, the damage that excessively high oil prices was doing, not just to the global economy but to long-term demand as well, with high prices pushing consumers to look to alternative technologies.." 

SUSRIS EXCLUSIVE -The Vital Triangle: China, the United States, and the Middle East - Chapter Three - Saudi Arabia: The Pivotal State
Jon B. Alterman & John W. Garver
Oct 17, 2008

"Of all the Arab states finding themselves between the United States and China, Saudi Arabia is the most pivotal among them, and of all of the Middle Eastern countries, Saudi Arabia has courted China most assiduously. As mentioned above, King Abdallah's first overseas trip upon ascending the throne was to China. His visit in January 2006 made him the first Saudi king ever to visit the People's Republic. In 2007, Saudi Arabia (along with Angola) was China's largest source of foreign oil, exporting more than a half million bbl/d. By the end of the decade, Saudi and Chinese officials expect that number to double. Saudi exports to China have grown remarkably quickly; as recently as 1995, Saudi Arabia ranked twenty-fifth among China's suppliers.." 

Update on Global and Local Financial Conditions - Oct 16
Brad Bourland
Oct 16, 2008

"..The economic outlook for Saudi Arabia is deteriorating. Oil prices dropped below $75 for the first time in over a year yesterday and could well slip below $70 per barrel by end-Friday. We expect Opec to cut production in order to defend prices of around this level (though its next scheduled meeting is not until November 18) and indications are that Saudi Arabia has taken off the market much of the supply increase it introduced in the summer. Lower oil production and prices will dramatically reduce the budget and current account balances, though in both cases we still expect relatively comfortable surpluses.."

SUSRIS EXCLUSIVE - The Vital Triangle: China, the United States,
 and the Middle East - Chapter One - Introduction
Jon B. Alterman & John W. Garver
Oct 15, 2008

"From Washington, Hu went on to Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, where the mood was much different. A carefully scripted tour went off without a hitch, and the two countries signed agreements strengthening cooperation in several areas, including energy exploration and security. Hu also became one of the first foreign leaders ever to address Saudi Arabia's Consultative Council, the country's appointed parliamentary body. There were no protestors, no uncomfortable conversations, and no damage control. Two nations made narrow agreements in their mutual interest, uncomplicated by either country's sense of its global role or its global responsibility. Saudi Arabia has gas and oil; China needs gas and oil. On that basis, agreements were made. Hu's Arabian sojourn piqued interest in the United States, in part because the U.S. agenda with each country is so complicated. The U.S.-Saudi relationship has been close for more than a half-century, but what began as a relationship in the 1930s principally about oil and energy security has evolved into one that also concentrates heavily on counterterrorism, radicalization, the Arab-Israeli conflict, Iraq, Iran, and human rights.

SUSRIS EXCLUSIVE - The Vital Triangle: China, the United States, and the Middle East  
A Conversation with Jon Alterman
Oct 13, 2008

"You know, on the one hand, there’s just a business driven desire to diversify. They understand China is, without question, a growing market. They hear talk in the United States about ending dependence on Middle East oil, which upsets Middle Eastern producers who wonder about the future of the relationship. China is much quieter, although people in China, Chinese strategists, certainly talk an awful lot about ending dependence on Middle Eastern oil. But realistically they’re not so sure how they can do that. There are also some ways in which the American-Saudi relationship is bound up in emotion. Americans want to have an emotional relationship. Saudis with experience in the United States have an emotional relationship. There’s a way in which the relationship with China is a pure business relationship. It’s unsentimental. It’s based on financial principles. There’s a certain attractiveness in not getting emotionally involved for many Saudis who feel that they’ve been burned by the United States. The idea of a country that doesn’t profess a desire to change Saudi society is attractive. If it is not an alternative, it is at least a supplement to the long standing U.S. relationship.."

The US, Israel, the Arab States and a Nuclear Iran
Anthony Cordesman
Oct 10, 2008

"Iran's nuclear ambitions and missile programs, and their interactions with its growing capabilities for asymmetric warfare, are becoming steadily more critical security issues for the US, Iran's neighbors, and the international community. The foreign and domestic policy implications for the US will be a major issue the next administration must address during its first months in office. Iran's actions, and the Iraq War, have already made major changes in the military balance in the Gulf and the Middle East. Iran may still be several years to half a decade away from becoming a meaningful nuclear power, but even a potential Iranian nuclear weapon has already led Iran's neighbors, the US, and Israel to focus on the nuclear threat it can pose and its long-range missile programs.

SUSRIS EXCLUSIVE - Reforms and Relations: Perspectives on the Kingdom
A Conversation with Amb Chas Freeman
Oct 8, 2008

"..I believe King Abdullah is very rapidly becoming Abdullah the Great. If you look at his record over the time of his regency when he was Crown Prince, he was acting in many ways as chief of state. Since he became king I've been struck by the scope of change. It has been quite extraordinary. He has with remarkable speed, in the Saudi context, changed many things; but he is at a very advanced age and he is quite conscious that he can't count on being King for a long time.."

Economic Developments: A View from Riyadh
Brad Bourland
Oct 8, 2008

"..Global and regional stock markets are overwhelmed by panic. While the plunging share prices are creating some strong investment opportunities, investor confidence is exceptionally fragile and a sustainable recovery is not likely in the near term. The declines of this week are putting more pressure on political leaders and discussions of G7 leaders on Friday and global financial leaders at the IMF/World Bank meetings on Saturday and Sunday should be closely watched. The chances of a large-scale coordinated rescue package across the leading global economies are growing day by day. Jadwa will be reporting from these meetings. Interbank rates have been pushed up throughout the GCC, as interbank lending has dried up. This process began well before the extreme stresses in global interbank markets of the past few weeks (though this has heightened the interbank strains, particularly in the UAE), but is related to the global financial turmoil.." 

Rediscovering Diplomacy: America's Reputation in the Middle East
Amb. Chas. W. Freeman, Jr. on "Middle East Interviews"
Oct 3, 2008

"..Citing critical developments in the region that have gone forward without American participation Freeman describes how the United States' influence in the Middle East has diminished. Freeman's conversation with Feinburg touched on what would need to be done to reverse the damage that has been done but, based on the lack of ideas being put forward by the presidential candidates, he was not optimistic that the next Administration were prepared to reverse the situation.." 

Kingdom’s ‘Economic Freedom Index’ Raised
Querubin J. Minas
Oct 2, 2008

"..Saudi Arabia is the world’s 60th freest economy, and is ranked 6th out of 17 countries in the Middle East-North Africa region, according to this year’s “Index of Economic Freedom” report by The Heritage Foundation, a Washington-based think-tank and The Wall Street Journal. The Kingdom’s overall score is above the regional average, the report said. It’s economy “is 62.8 percent free (and).. ..overall score is 1.2 percentage points higher than last year, reflecting improved scores in four of the 10 economic freedoms,” the report said.."

As Fasting Ends, the Lessons of Ramadan Linger
Faiza Saleh Ambah
Oct 1 ,2008

"..Before we began our three-day Eid al-Fitr holiday, marking the end of Ramadan, I came across an article in a Saudi newspaper with a checklist of what makes a successful Ramadan. First on the list: Recognizing that one can change for the better and acquiring patience and strong will. This month my deficiencies have shone as if spotlights were directed at them.."