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ITEM OF INTEREST
August 31, 2009

Gulf Threats, Risks and Vulnerabilities:
Terrorism and Assymetric Warfare
Anthony H. Cordesman and Adam C. Seitz

Editor's Note:

The Burke Chair in Strategy, held by Dr. Anthony H. Cordesman, at the Center for Strategic and International Studies released a briefing on Gulf security that will be of great interest to SUSRIS readers. "Threats, Risks and Vulnerabilities in the Gulf: Terrorism and Asymmetric Warfare," authored by Dr. Cordesman and Adam Seitz, provides a comprehensive understanding of the threats in the Gulf that challenge U.S. and Saudi defense and security establishments. We commend it for your review and addition to your Gulf information resource bookmark list. This SUSRIS item provides the introduction and link to the complete report, an update to a report circulated earlier this year.

Gulf Threats, Risks and Vulnerabilities:
Terrorism and Assymetric Warfare
Anthony H. Cordesman and Adam C. Seitz

While much of the world has focused on Iran's missile developments and possible nuclear capabilities, this is only one of the risks that threaten the flow of petroleum products from the Gulf - a region with some 60% of the world's proven conventional oil reserves and 40% of its natural gas. Far more immediate threats have emerged in terms of asymmetric warfare, terrorism, piracy, non-state actors, and other threats.

The Burke Chair at CSIS has developed a new briefing that provides an overview of these threats, showing current trends and highlighting the strategic geography involved. This brief looks beyond Gulf waters and examines the problems created by Iran's ties to other states and non-state actors throughout the region. It highlights Iran's capabilities for asymmetric warfare, but it also examines the threat from terrorism and the role it can play in nations like Yemen. It looks at the trends in piracy and in the threat in the Gulf of Aden, Red Sea, and Indian Ocean.

The key issues addressed are:

Terrorism
Asymmetric Warfare;
Maritime and Border Security;
Combating Piracy;
Critical facilities and Infrastructure;
Role of Chokepoints; and
Role of State and Non-State Actors

Countermeasures include:

Prepare for all types of threats, and full spectrum of terrorism and asymmetric warfare;
Jointness and inter-ministry cooperation;
Regional and international cooperation
Focus on both active and passive defense;
Broad, non-compartmented situational awareness with real world operational response - critical value of IS&R and C4I;
Intelligence Cooperation
Gaming and "red teaming"
Design civil and commercial facilities and infrastructure for deterrence and defense.

This briefing is entitled Gulf Threats, Risks and Vulnerabilities: Terrorism and Asymmetric Warfare, and can be found on the CSIS web site [click here].

This report is the third report in a series of three. The two previous reports in the series are available on the CSIS website:

"Iran Status Report: Iran and the Challenges to US Policy" [click here]

"GCC-Iran: Operational Analysis of Air, SAM and TBM Forces" [click here]

Additional work on Iran's military and nuclear capabilities and the threats they pose to regional security are available at [click here]

In addition, a new CSIS/Praeger book on Iranian military forces and Iran's missile and WMD programs, entitled "Iranian Weapons of Mass Destruction" will be published in September, 2009. Copies can be ordered at: [click here]

Detailed Burke Chair Reports on Iran can be found here:

Also from Dr. Anthony Cordesman

Dr. Anthony H. Cordesman. (Photo: Patrick Ryan) Dr. Anthony H. Cordesman holds the Arleigh Burke Chair in Strategy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and is Co-Director of the Center's Middle East Program. He is also a military analyst for ABC and a Professor of National Security Studies at Georgetown. He directs the assessment of global military balance, strategic energy developments, and CSIS' Dynamic Net Assessment of the Middle East. He is the author of books on the military lessons of the Iran-Iraq war as well as the Arab-Israeli military balance and the peace process, a six-volume net assessment of the Gulf, transnational threats, and military developments in Iran and Iraq. He analyzes U.S. strategy and force plans, counter-proliferation issues, arms transfers, Middle Eastern security, economic, and energy issues. [Click here for more]

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