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NOTE: This is the
summary of Mahmoud Abdul-Baqi and Nansen Saleri's presentations which
were given to the CSIS in Washington
on February 24, 2004
Global Outlook:
World energy demand is
expected to increase at an annual rate of 1% to 2% over the next 15
years, reaching an annual demand of 107 million barrels per day by
2020, partly as an anticipated consequence of growth in China, India
and other South East Asian economies.
Worldwide oil reserves at
year-end 2002 stand at 1050 billion barrels, of which 65% (or 686
billion barrels) is in the Middle East, with Saudi Arabia being the
principal player. The Middle East contributes about a third of total
world production, has a reserves-to-production life of 92 years and
is expected to play a pre-eminent role in the global energy theater.
Overview of Upstream
Operations:
Saudi Aramco's current
operations encompass 1.5 million square kilometers, comprising 85
fields, 320 reservoirs and 25% of world oil reserves. Current daily
production capability stands at 10 million barrels of crude oil and
9.6 billion cubic feet of gas. The Company's strategy calls for an
annual reserves replacement of its crude production, while adding 5
trillion cubic feet gas reserves through an integrated exploration,
delineation and development program.
Reserves and Future
Potential:
Saudi Aramco's oil and gas
reserves conform to industry standards. Reserves attributable to
enhanced oil recovery (EOR) processes are excluded, underscoring the
conservative nature of the Company's reserves. Year-end 2003 proved
oil reserves totaled 260 billion barrels. Incremental probable and
possible reserves (over and above the 260 billion barrels) are
estimated to be 103 billion barrels. Exploration, delineation and
development efforts have increased Saudi Aramco's oil initially in
place from 600 to 700 billion barrels during the past 20 years. Vast
unexplored acreage exists in the Rub' al Khali desert region, the
northern basin (along the border with Iraq) and the offshore Red Sea
Basin. US Geological Survey 2000 projections point to additional
recoverable oil resources ranging from 29 to 161 billion barrels to
be discovered in Saudi Arabia by 2025. The Company projects its oil
initially in place volume to reach 900 billion barrels by the same
date.
Reservoir Development
and Management Practices:
The stewardship of Saudi
Arabia's hydrocarbon reserves is Saudi Aramco's paramount objective.
The Company develops and manages its rich portfolio of hydrocarbon
reserves, employing state-of-the-art technological resources,
best-in-class reservoir management practices and a world-class
professional workforce. The emphasis is on long-term production
sustainability and maximum recovery.
Sophisticated diagnostic
capabilities (empowered by numerically-intensive computational
models) and comprehensive reservoir surveillance programs are two
key enablers assuring high accuracy field production forecasts,
superior operational efficiency and optimal reservoir development
strategies.
Synopsis:
Saudi Aramco's proved oil
reserves of 260 billion barrels, represents a conservative figure,
by established industry (SPE/WPC/AAPG) standards. Significant upward
potential for reserves additions exists. Oil-focused exploration and
delineation efforts, application of EOR processes and continual
emphasis on existing and future technologies - custom-fit to the
Company's reservoir portfolio - will certainly engender a major
expansion in Saudi Aramco's reserves base in the decades ahead,
commensurate with global market conditions and requirements.
The Company is committed to
maintaining its pre-eminent role as a reliable, cost-effective and
environmentally friendly global oil supplier. If called upon,
sustained daily crude production levels of 10, 12 and 15 million
barrels per day can be readily maintained through 2054 and beyond.
Saudi Aramco has the financial, organizational and technical
capabilities to do so.
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