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Newsletter #285

September 28-October 4, 2008

   
What's New on SUSRIS
  --Rediscovering Diplomacy: America's Reputation in the Middle East - Amb Chas W. Freeman, Jr., on "Middle East Interviews" 
  --Saudi Arabia Moves Up on Index of Economic Freedom 
  --Ramadan Diary - As Fasting Ends, the Lessons of Ramadan Continue - Faiza Saleh Ambah 
  --Special Report - SUSRIS Quarterly Report - A Summary of Articles, Interviews and Special Reports from Jun 1-Sep 30, 2008 
  --Foreign Policy of Saudi Arabia - Prince Saud Al-Faisal at the United National 63rd General Assembly 
  --Arabian Knight: Colonel Bill Eddy USMC and the Rise of American Power in the Middle East - Assignment Arabia - An Excerpt from Chapter 5 (Part Two) Thomas Lippman 
In the News

  --A New City in the Saudi Desert
  --Saudi investors suffer losses due to US crisis
  --Karzai Seeks Saudi Help in Peace Talks
On the Calendar
  -- Arab-US Policymakers Conference
  -- Middle East Institute 62nd Annual Conference
Keeping Track - Recent SUSRIS Items
This Week's News - September 28-October 4, 2008
About SUSRIS
   

What's New on SUSRIS This Week

Click for complete item (HTML)Click here to access the audio file of Amb Chas Freeman's interview with radio host Todd Feinburg and their conversation about America's reputation in the Middle East.Rediscovering Diplomacy: America's Reputation in the Middle East - Amb Chas W. Freeman, Jr., on "Middle East Interviews"

"..Citing critical developments in the region that have gone forward without American participation Freeman describes how the United States' influence in the Middle East has diminished. Freeman's conversation with Feinburg touched on what would need to be done to reverse the damage that has been done but, based on the lack of ideas being put forward by the presidential candidates, he was not optimistic that the next Administration were prepared to reverse the situation.."  [more]

Click for complete item (HTML)Click here to read about Saudi Arabia moving up on the Index of Economic Freedom.Saudi Arabia Moves Up on Index of Economic Freedom

"..Saudi Arabia is the world’s 60th freest economy, and is ranked 6th out of 17 countries in the Middle East-North Africa region, according to this year’s “Index of Economic Freedom” report by The Heritage Foundation, a Washington-based think-tank and The Wall Street Journal. The Kingdom’s overall score is above the regional average, the report said. It’s economy “is 62.8 percent free (and).. ..overall score is 1.2 percentage points higher than last year, reflecting improved scores in four of the 10 economic freedoms,” the report said.."  [more]

Click for complete item (HTML)Click here to read the final article in the Ramadan Diary series by Faiza Saleh Ambah.Ramadan Diary - As Fasting Ends, the Lessons of Ramadan Continue - Faiza Saleh Ambah

"..Before we began our three-day Eid al-Fitr holiday, marking the end of Ramadan, I came across an article in a Saudi newspaper with a checklist of what makes a successful Ramadan. First on the list: Recognizing that one can change for the better and acquiring patience and strong will. This month my deficiencies have shone as if spotlights were directed at them.."  [more]

Click for complete item (HTML)Click here to review the quarterly production summary that lists SUSRIS article, interviews and special reports from June 1, 2008-September 30, 2008.Special Report - SUSRIS Quarterly Report - A Summary of Articles, Interviews and Special Reports from Jun 1-Sep 30, 2008

"This compilation provides a summary of SUSRIS articles, interviews, essays, items of interest and special reports distributed between June 1 and September 30, 2008. You can find more news and resources in the weekly SUSRIS newsletters.."  [more]

Click for complete item (HTML)Click here to read Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud Al-Faisal's address to the United Nations General Assembly.Foreign Policy of Saudi Arabia - Prince Saud Al-Faisal at the United National 63rd General Assembly

"..The tremendous developments that have taken place in the transport, communications, media and information technology sectors have helped to facilitate and expand contact and interaction among all the peoples of the world with their various religions, beliefs, cultures and languages. No part of our human family, in all its rich diversity and fertile pluralism, currently lives in isolation without affecting or being affected by others. However, while these advances improve the human condition, they were used by extremist minorities in every religious or cultural community who are seeking to propagate notions of intolerance, exclusion, racism and hatred. We all therefore need to work together in an earnest manner, under the auspices of the United Nations, in order to create an environment conducive to promotion of the values of dialogue, tolerance and moderation and the establishment of relations of cooperation and peace among cultures, peoples and states based on mutual respect and shared determination to overcome divisions and differences.."  [more]

Click for complete item (HTML)Click here to read an excerpt from "Arabian Knight" by Thomas Lippman talking about the assignment of Colonel William Eddy to Saudi Arabia in 1944."Arabian Knight: Colonel Bill Eddy USMC and the Rise of American Power in the Middle East" - Assignment Arabia - An Excerpt - Thomas Lippman

"..Eddy's promotion effectively terminated his regional reporting assignment; he was now the president's full-time emissary to Saudi Arabia. Thus it fell to Eddy to carry out the unprecedented task of orchestrating the meeting of the president he served and the King to whose government he was accredited. Given that the two leaders were so far apart in background, education, language, religion, and knowledge of the world that they might have been from different planets, it was going to require all of Eddy's skill and experience to bring it off.."  [more]

   

In the News

Click for complete item (HTML)A New City in the Saudi Desert

"..Amr al-Dabbagh has no doubt that if he builds it, they will come. The governor of the Saudi Arabian General Investment Authority (SAGIA) is one of the brains behind King Abdullah Economic City, a $27 billion development rising out of the desert 100 km north of Jeddah, and he can already envision the arrival of its first residents. "It won't be long before it starts taking shape," he says, of the city that, when completed 20 years from now, will be roughly the size of Washington, D.C., with a population of more than 1.5 million.." [more]

Click for complete item (HTML)Saudi investors suffer losses due to US crisis

"..Many Saudi and Gulf investors suffered heavy losses after some American and Gulf banks used their funds to buy risky mortgage bonds just before the subprime mortgage crisis erupted in the US. “At least 35 Saudi investors are facing semi-bankruptcy as a result of purchasing US mortgage bonds,” Al-Riyadh Arabic daily said quoting business sources. However, the paper said it was not yet clear how much would be the total losses caused by the US economic crisis to Gulf banks.."  [more]

Click for complete item (HTML)Karzai Seeks Saudi Help in Peace Talks

"..Afghan President Hamid Karzai said Tuesday he has asked the king of Saudi Arabia to help facilitate peace talks with the Taliban in order to bring an end to the Afghan conflict.. ..Karzai said there has not yet been any negotiations, only requests for help. But he said that Afghan officials have traveled to both Saudi Arabia and to Pakistan in hopes of ending the conflict. "For the last two years, I've sent letters to the king of Saudi Arabia, and I've sent messages, and I requested from him as the leader of the Islamic world, for the security and prosperity of Afghanistan and for reconciliation in Afghanistan.. ..he should help us," Karzai said.."  [more]

   

On the Calendar

Arab-US Policymakers Conference
Washington - Oct 30-31, 2008
Transitioning the White House: Challenges and Opportunities for Arab-US Relations
[more]

Middle East Institute 62nd Annual Conference
"US Middle East Policy: Pathways to Renewal"
November 20-21, 2008
[more]

   
Keeping Up - Recently on SUSRIS
IOI - Rediscovering Diplomacy: America's Reputation in the Middle East - Amb Chas W. Freeman, Jr., on "Middle East Interviews"
IOI - Saudi Arabia Moves Up on Index of Economic Freedom
IOI - Ramadan Diary - As Fasting Ends, the Lessons of Ramadan Continue - Faiza Saleh Ambah
Special Report - SUSRIS Quarterly Report - A Summary of Articles, Interviews and Special Reports from Jun 1-Sep 30, 2008
IOI - Foreign Policy of Saudi Arabia - Prince Saud Al-Faisal at the United National 63rd General Assembly
Sep 28

IOI - Arabian Knight: Colonel Bill Eddy USMC and the Rise of American Power in the Middle East - Assignment Arabia - An Excerpt from Chapter 5 (Part Two) Thomas Lippman

Sep 27
Sep 26 IOI - Ramadan Diary: Waging 'Inner Jihad' on an Empty Stomach -
Sep 24 IOI - Arabian Knight: Colonel Bill Eddy USMC and the Rise of American Power in the Middle East - Saudi Arabia - An Excerpt from Chapter 5 (Part One) Thomas Lippman
Sep 23 IOI - Saudi Arabia - National Day
Sep 19 IOI - Introduction Excerpt from Arabian Knight: Col. Bill Eddy - Thomas Lippman
Sep 17 IOI - Ramadan Diary - Halfway Through the Ramadan Fast -
Sep 15 Interview - Exclusive - Arabian Knight: Col. Bill Eddy - Thomas Lippman
Sep 9 IOI - Ramadan Diary - A Month of Fast and Feast -
Sep 5 IOI - Rights Commission Opens Women's Branch
Sep 4 Interview - Exclusive - American Businesses and Saudi Opportunities: Missing the Action? - A Conversation with Khaled Al Seif
Sep 3 IOI - Ramadan Diary - "Enough Faith to Fast?" - Faiza Saleh Ambah
Sep 1 IOI - Ramadan in Saudi Arabia
Aug 30 IOI - Saudi Arabia Update - Thomas Lippman Talks with "Middle East Interviews"
Aug 29 IOI - The Middle East: Evolution of a Broken Regional Order - Paul Salem
Aug 26 Special Report - GCC Ministerial Meeting in Jeddah
Aug 23 IOI - Conventional Arms in the Gulf - Anthony Cordesman
Aug 22 IOI - Globalization and the Future of the Oil Market - Ali Al Naimi
Aug 15 IOI - Saudi Arabian Energy Profile - Energy Information Administration
Aug 12 IOI - "Prophets and Princes: Saudi Arabia from Muhammad to the Present" by Mark Weston - Introduction
Aug 11 IOI - "Prophets and Princes: Saudi Arabia from Muhammad to the Present" Foreword by Amb Wyche Fowler, Jr.
Aug 9 IOI - Saudi Inflation Shock - Call for Government Action - Arab News
Aug 6 IOI - King Abdullah Interview - 20/20 - Barbara Walters - Redux
Aug 6 IOI - King Abdullah Interview - 20/20 - Richard Haass Comments - Redux
Aug 6 IOI - King Abdullah Interview with GulfWire - Redux
Aug 5 Interview - Exclusive - King Abdullah: Racing or Nudging to the Future? - A Conversation with Mark Weston
Aug 1 Interview - Exclusive - The Rule of King Abdullah: A New Paradigm - A Conversation with Jean Francois Seznec
   
More News this Week

~~~~~~~~ [ Oct 04] ~~~~~~~~~

Prince Turki Wins Legal Battle against French Channel [Oct 4]
"Prince Turki Al-Faisal, former Saudi ambassador in Washington, has won a legal battle against the French TV channel France 3 that had accused the prince in a documentary program two years ago that he had prior knowledge of the terrorist attacks against the United States on Sept. 11, 2001. 'The French Appeals Court rejected on Wednesday an appeal filed by the channel on a previous convicting verdict issued by the Court of First Instance,' said an official statement carried by the Saudi Press Agency late Thursday. The appeals court upheld the verdict of the Court of First Instance, increased the compensation that should be paid by the channel to the prince, and ordered the channel to telecast a frank apology at the beginning of its main news bulletin within one week of the issuance of the ruling, the statement added.." [more]

Saudi Investors Suffer Losses Due to US Crisis [Oct 4]
"Many Saudi and Gulf investors suffered heavy losses after some American and Gulf banks used their funds to buy risky mortgage bonds just before the subprime mortgage crisis erupted in the US. 'At least 35 Saudi investors are facing semi-bankruptcy as a result of purchasing US mortgage bonds,' Al-Riyadh Arabic daily said quoting business sources. However, the paper said it was not yet clear how much would be the total losses caused by the US economic crisis to Gulf banks. It also said that some Gulf banks had played the role of intermediaries for US banks and companies to sell high-risk mortgage bonds to Gulf investors in lieu of attractive commissions.. ..'The Saudi stock market lost 30 percent of its value in 2008 while Dow Jones lost only 22 percent,' he pointed out.. ..Meanwhile, economists predicted that the Saudi stock market index would decline further as a result of the effect of global economic crisis. They said the Eid Al-Fitr holidays had saved stock dealers from major losses.." [more]

US Group Allowed to Establish Iran Office [Oct 4]
"The US has granted rare approval to a US-based group to establish an office in Iran, the State Department said on Thursday, stressing however that US policy towards the Islamic Republic has not changed. The American Iranian Council (AIC), a research and policy think tank devoted to improving ties between the two arch enemies, was given a licence to establish a presence in Tehran by the US Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), officials said. 'We understand that a licence has been granted to the American-Iranian Council but would refer you to the Office of Foreign Asset Control at the Treasury Department for any information regarding OFAC licences,' the office of State Department spokesman Sean McCormack said. The OFAC enforces US sanctions against countries such as Iran, Sudan and Cuba. Treasury Department spokesman Robert Saliterman said the department 'does not confirm or deny the issuance of licences.' But, he added that 'licences for NGOs are based on foreign policy guidance.' McCormack’s office explained that US policy towards Iran 'has not changed' with the approval given to AIC.." [more]

Bechtel Wins Saudi Smelter Deal [Oct 4]
"US-based Bechtel, one of the world's premier engineering, construction, and project management companies, has clinched a key aluminium smelter project in Saudi Arabia, said a media report. Betchel has been appointed as the engineering, procurement and construction management contractor for Al-Zabirah smelter project at Ras al-Zour, Meed reported, without saying how it got the information. The smelter is being developed by Alumco, a joint venture of Saudi Arabian Mining Company (Maaden) 
and the British-Canadian company Rio Tinto Alcan.." [more]

Sri Lanka Targets Saudis for Tourism [Oct 4]
"Citizens and expatriates from Saudi Arabia have been increasingly visiting or traveling through Sri Lanka. 'There has been a 30 percent jump in tourist and business traffic from Saudi Arabia and we are going to focus more on the Kingdom and the rest of the Middle East as they have great spending capacity, especially in the wake the economic boom,'.. ..This year alone, from January to date, 5,000 Saudis and 10,000 expatriates from the Kingdom visited Sri Lanka, he said, adding that his country is 
planning a series of road shows in Riyadh, Jeddah and Dammam later this year to focus on its potential as a tourist resort for Saudi families. 'Saudis are increasingly realizing that the Indian Ocean island is a value-for-money holiday resort, and what interests them is the availability of halal food all over. The island’s starred hotels, which offer 15,000 rooms, all display Qibla direction signboards in rooms,' Musthapha said. The country has a 10 percent Muslim population and is dotted with mosques.." [more]

~~~~~~~~ [ Oct 03] ~~~~~~~~~

Saudi Arabia Can Rein in the Taliban and al-Qaeda [Oct 3]
"Far removed from the global credit crunch, another international crisis continues to inflict a different kind of carnage on the security and stability of the West.. ..Next week it will be seven years since the war on terror was officially launched when the US military, with British support, unleashed a devastating bombardment on 31 al-Qaeda and Taliban targets in Afghanistan. But despite the heroic efforts of coalition forces and the deployment of vast resources, the West appears no closer to achieving its long-term objective of eradicating the threat posed by Islamist groups and helping to turn failed states into ones capable of sustaining democratic government based on the rule of law.. ..Which makes this week's suggestion that the Afghan government is seeking Saudi Arabia's help in negotiating a peace deal with the Taliban all the more encouraging.. ..If any country has the ability to rein in the murderous activities of the Taliban and al-Qaeda, it is Saudi Arabia, a point that needs to be reinforced when Prince Turki makes an official visit to London this month to discuss bilateral security issues.." [more]

Saudi Arabia's Economic Cities Ease Grip of Religious Power [Oct 3]
"..If all goes to plan, the King Abdullah Economic City and three sister developments in Hail, Jizan and Medina will by at least 2020 be vibrant communities in a country with high unemployment and an over-reliance on oil. Allowing women to drive cars and possibly permitting cinema houses, they may also add to the few bubbles of freedom in Saudi Arabia -- where suffocating gender restrictions have been eased in recent years, to the ire of many religious conservatives.. ..In the 'economic cities,' many expect the clerics to be kept at a distance from social life, the workplace and education. 'Society has changed fundamentally and the measure of it is that the official fatwa [religious edict] of old no longer has the hold it had,' said reformist cleric Abdelaziz al-Gasim. He said social and political taboos had been broken, citing women revealing their faces in some public places and popular participation in 2005 municipal elections, diluting the idea maintained by the clerics of absolute obedience to the ruler.. ..But adding to concerns is a sense that the future of the cities is tied up with the fate of social and political reforms. Many liberals fear the king's successors will be less concerned with openness and relaxing clerical control.." [more]

The Saudi-Syrian Cold War Unfolds in Tripoli [Oct 3]
"The Cold War between Syria and Saudi Arabia playing itself out in the northern Lebanese city of Tripoli is taking the Lebanese crisis into unchartered territories where all the microcosms of inter-Arab animosity are vying for power in Lebanon. Saudi Arabia seems reluctant to accept the implications of the May 7 clashes which broke out on the streets of Beirut when the main Sunni force in Lebanon, the Future movement led by Saad Hariri, suffered a swift blow from Hezbollah, the Syrian and Iranian backed Shiite group.. ..both Saudi and Syrian regimes have one thing in common: a vague structure of security power not conducive to analyze the rationale behind their policies. Riyadh's political options are predictable and built on the premise of a Sunni-Shiite divide, while the Syrian leadership, existing in a more complex environment, muddled along in somewhat of a state of disarray since 2001, where a the political line followed by Damascus remains blurred.." [more]

Oil Falls Near $94 on Concerns of Weakening Demand [Oct 3]
"Oil fell more than $4 towards $94 a barrel on Thursday, as the US dollar rose and as the US Senate's approval of a $700 billion bailout of the financial sector failed to allay concerns over weakening fuel demand in the world's top energy consumer.. ..The Senate's approval of the rescue plan initially reassured European stock markets, but US stocks fell sharply after weak US economic data. The dollar's advance to a near 13-month high against the euro and a basket of major currencies put pressure on oil. But oil's fall also reflected a shift in sentiment to focus more on falling demand in industrialised countries.. ..'Expect crude to track firmer equity markets for a little while longer,' said Edward Meir, of broker MF Global. 'But we expect the two to eventually decouple.' 'On its own, we think crude will not fare as well, and will be particularly vulnerable heading into the fourth quarter," he said. "We would not be surprised to see $75-$80 on WTI (US crude) by the end of the year.'.." [more]

Shariah Courts to Try Terror Suspects: Naif [Oct 3]
" Interior Minister Prince Naif announced late Wednesday night that all suspected militants arrested for plotting to carry out terrorist attacks in the Kingdom would be transferred to Shariah courts shortly to take action against them. 'God willing, they all will be transferred to the judiciary to give its verdict on them in accordance with what God has ordained to prevent sedition. ... We don’t punish anybody except on the basis of a court verdict,' the prince said.. ..Last June, the Interior Ministry announced the 
arrests of 701 suspected militants for plotting to carry out terrorist attacks. Some of the detainees, according to Maj. Gen. Mansour Al-Turki, the ministry’s spokesman, were planning to stage terrorist attacks on oil fields and other vital installations. 'You know that Islam is targeted and your country with all its honor and pride is an Islamic country with Qur’an and Sunnah being its constitution... and we depend on ourselves after God the Almighty,'.." [more]

Saudi Overspends by $23bn to Meet its Social Obligations [Oct 3]
"Saudi Arabia overshot its budgeted expenditure by nearly $23 billion (Dh84bn) in 2007 as the Kingdom was again tempted by a surge in oil prices to meet its civilian and defence obligations,official figures showed yesterday. But the budget again recorded a massive surplus although it was much lower than the record actual positive balance in the 2006 budget.. ..The decline was caused by a drop of around 400,000 barrels per day in the Kingdom's crude output from nearly 9.2 million bpd to 8.8 million bpd. 
Saudi Arabia has largely exceeded budgeted spending over the past few years as oil prices have surged far above its conservative forecasts of $40 a barrel. The Opec de facto leader, which controls a quarter of the world's extractable crude deposits, has used its massive fiscal surpluses to slash soaring public debt and rebuild its foreign assets after a sharp fall in late 1990s due to persistent budget deficits and relatively low oil prices. The public debt hit a record SR690bn to exceed the country's gross domestic product in 1999.." [more]

~~~~~~~~ [ Oct 02] ~~~~~~~~~

Beijing, Riyadh Buttress Oil Prices [Oct 2]
"Two stalwart forces are still standing between the world's slumping economies and a steep drop in oil prices: China and Saudi Arabia. The credit crisis and fears of a recession have sparked some predictions in recent weeks of an imminent plunge in crude prices. A global recession could clobber demand, causing a surplus in supply and a swift fall in oil prices, the argument goes. But so far, prices have been surprisingly resilient, bobbing around $100 a barrel for weeks, despite the U.S. stock-market turmoil and congressional wrangling over a financial-rescue package. Two of the main forces keeping oil aloft, analysts say, are China's continuing thirst for oil and the ability of Saudi Arabia to tighten the spigot on world supplies when it pleases.. ..The big question now is how much China's economy will cool over the next several months as it absorbs the pain from the travails in its chief export markets in North America and Europe. There are already signs of an economic slowdown in China.." [more]

Below the Poverty Line! [Oct 2]
"It is sad to be thirsty when you are only a few steps away from a river. It is painful to go to bed hungry in a place where good food is plentiful. It is appalling to suffer from poverty while everything around you is a sign of wealth. These words come to our mind when we read newspaper reports everyday about the vacillation of some government institutions in dealing with the problems of poverty and of those of the needy in Saudi Arabia. The Ministry of Social Affairs does not think that it is the only party concerned with the issue of poverty. It might be right. The Ministry of Labor, for instance, is supposed to be concerned with this case too, but it is tolerating a state of laissez-faire and, as a result, 'some' private sector operators have been exploiting man's need for work, failing to set minimum wages, and paying the lowest prices for using people's energies.. ..There is no explanation for the wavering of some government institutions that are concerned with tackling poverty. They have no excuses either, given the personal interest that King Abdullah Bin Abdulaziz has shown in this issue. This good king considers tackling poverty as one of the priorities of his reign and as one of his important objectives. As for those who are trying to play down the size of the problem by saying that it is 'limited and mostly confined in isolated areas,' they should revise the meaning of the word poverty.." [more]

Bahrain for Forum of Arabs, Israel [Oct 2]
"The foreign minister of Bahrain has called for the creation of a regional grouping of Arab states with Israel, as well as Iran and Turkey, a newspaper reported yesterday. 'Israel, Iran, Turkey and Arab states should sit together in one organisation,' Sheikh Khaled bin Ahmed al-Khalifah was quoted in the pan-Arab daily Al Hayat as saying. 'Aren’t we all members of a global organisation called the UN? Why not (come together) on a regional basis? This is the only way to solve our problems. There’s no other way to solve them, now or in 200 years.' Al Hayat, which interviewed the Bahraini chief diplomat in New York, said he had proposed the establishment of a regional bloc in a speech to the UN General Assembly. The Gulf kingdom is a major ally of the US and has a free trade agreement with Washington. It also hosts the US Navy’s Fifth Fleet....Earlier this year, Bahrain appointed the Arab world’s first Jewish ambassador as its envoy to Washington. Only two Arab countries — Egypt and Jordan — have full fledged peace treaties with Israel. Forging ties with Israel without a solution to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict is generally unpopular among ordinary Arabs.." [more]

Renowned Writer Al-Jifri is Dead [Oct 2]
"Famous Saudi writer and novelist Abdullah Al-Jifri died yesterday after a prolonged illness. He was 69. His body will be buried in Makkah after funeral prayers at the Grand Mosque this afternoon. Al-Jifri enriched Arab culture and heritage by writing more than 60 novels and thousands of literary and informative articles. Al-Jifri completed his secondary education in Makkah and worked as a civil servant in different government departments before joining the Ministry of Information.. ..He also wrote articles in Sayidaty magazine and Al-Hayat Arabic daily and supervised the cultural file of Al-Majalla magazine. His columns under the title 'Shades' attracted a large number of readers — Saudis as well as non-Saudis.. ..In 1984, he received a prize from the Arab Educational, Cultural and Scientific Organization before winning the Ali & Mustafa Ameen Journalism Prize in 1992. He received another award in 1998 during the second conference of Saudi men of letters.." [more]

Oil May Fall to $50 in Global Recession [Oct 2]
"Crude-oil prices may fall as low as $50 a barrel next year, about half current levels, in the ``unlikely'' event of a global recession, weighing on shares of petroleum producers, Merrill Lynch & Co. said. Such a scenario, where global growth in Gross Domestic Product falls to 1.5 percent, isn't the base-case forecast, the bank said today in a report. Merrill cut its 2009 average price estimate for West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark oil grade, by 16 percent to $90, citing falling demand and the start of new fields in Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. Crude-oil future prices have fallen almost a third in New York since reaching a record $147.27 a barrel on July 11, driven by concerns a worsening financial crisis in the U.S. is crimping energy demand. U.S. oil use is declining faster than expected, while European consumption is falling.. ..A decline in prices to $50 would impede investment decisions on projects.." [more]

~~~~~~~~ [ Oct 01] ~~~~~~~~~

Saudi Arabia Eyes Healthcare Privatisation [Oct 1]
"Saudi Arabia is planning to privatise large swathes of its healthcare sector to meet surging demand for medical services better, according to a senior Saudi official. As oil revenue trickles down into the economy and increases household wealth, demand for better healthcare services is rising in the kingdom. But even oil-rich Saudi Arabia is blanching at the spiralling prospective costs and is welcoming private sector involvement.. ..The government finances more than three-quarters of the healthcare industry, which was 'unsustainable given population growth projections, as well as spiralling healthcare costs,'.. ..The move to involve the private sector is part of a trend in the region. Khaled Jaouni of Ithmar Capital, a Dubai-based private equity firm, said authorities throughout the Gulf were gradually moving towards being a regulator of medical services rather than a provider.." [more]

Saudi Blogging Round-up [Oct 1]
"Blogging in Saudia Arabia can carry risks. The Saudi authorities detained one blogger, Fouad al-Farhan, for four months this year after he called for political reform. But people are still speaking their minds online. Topics in this selection of posts include a fatwa, repressive Arab regimes, religion as empowerment, and menswear with a twist.. Ahmed Omar, an engineer from Dhahran, discusses the recent fatwa issued by his country's most senior judge. Sheikh Salih Ibn al-Luhaydan said it was permissible to kill the owners of satellite TV channels which broadcast immoral programmes.. ..Fouad al-Farhan was the blogger imprisoned by Saudi authorities earlier this year. He is known as the 'dean' of Saudi bloggers, as he was the first to write using his real name.. ..Aysha is a Saudi Arabian script writer who has recently returned to her country with her husband and child, after two years in the US.. ..Saudi Jeans is the blog of Ahmed al-Omran, a student in Riyadh. His first post was written on Saudi Arabia's national day.." [more]

Saudi Arabia's Grand Mufti Talks to Asharq Al-Awsat [Oct 1]
"Saudi Arabian Mufti Sheikh Abdulaziz Al al-Sheikh warned against the dangers of the Al-Qaeda organization and its leader Osama Bin Laden and emphasized that this organization has brought nothing but 'chaos and destruction' to the Muslim world. In an interview with Asharq Al-Awsat, Al al-Sheikh emphasized the insincerity of Bin Laden's call and said: 'A Muslim should not be deceived by propaganda and his position on any call should be based on reflection and on close scrutiny of its outcome'. He described the Al-Qaeda organization as 'a bloody and corruptive organization that sows corruption in the ummah [Community of Islam] and destroys property'. The Grand Mufti of Saudi Arabia is not totally satisfied with the steps being taken to repulse the danger inherent in the ideology of the terrorist organization, saying that 'there is delinquency' in this regard. He said that ideological terrorism is 'dangerous and a prelude to practical terrorism'. He emphasized that the war on deviant thoughts should be the strongest.. ..The text of the interview is as follows.." [more]

Saudi, Most Neighbours Start Eid Feast [Oct 1]
"Saudi Arabia, the birthplace of Islam, and most of its neighbours started to celebrate the Eid al-Fitr feast yesterday to mark the end the holy fasting month of Ramadan. Bahrain, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Yemen also started the holiday yesterday, media reports said. The timing of Eid can vary in different countries depending on the sighting of the new moon, which marks the start of the month in Islam’s lunar calendar. Regional stock markets are closed during the holiday. The Saudi 
bourse, the Arab world’s largest, has the longest break and will re-open on October 6.." [more]

Color, Glitter Enliven Saudi Women's Black Abayas [Oct 1]
" For years, the only thing sold openly in Saudi stores selling women's cloaks were of the all-black, drab covering variety. Now, streaks of vibrant color, bands of glittering crystal — even sheaths of sexy leopard skin prints — are showing up on the racks. And that's not all. Women are snapping them up and even sometimes wearing them in public. For stores to openly stock the new generation of cloaks, or abayas, and for some women to wear them in public are not just fashion statements. They are risky acts of defiance in a nation where the powerful religious police have for years raided stores to confiscate "illegal" abayas as part of their mandate as guardians of the kingdom's rigid interpretation of Islamic teachings.." [more]

~~~~~~~~ [ Sep 30] ~~~~~~~~~

Karzai Pleas for Saudi Peace Role [Sep 30]
"Afghan President Hamid Karzai has said that he has made repeated efforts over the last two years to engage Saudi Arabia in peace talks with the Taleban. The president said there had not yet been any direct negotiations, only requests for help. He said that Afghan officials had travelled to Saudi Arabia and to Pakistan to kick-start the process. The comments came during the president's traditional message to the Afghan people during the Eid holiday.. ..'The preparation for negotiations is going on, on a daily basis. Our envoys travelled many times to Saudi Arabia and to Pakistan, but the discussions have not started yet. We hope that it happens soon.' Saudi Arabia was one of the few countries to recognise the Taleban government when they ruled Afghanistan before being overthrown by US forces in 2001. President Karzai has in the past urged Taleban fighters to lay down their weapons and return to their homes.. ..Our correspondent says that many Afghan and western officials believe that the insurgency cannot be defeated militarily and that a political accommodation must be reached, but there has been fierce disagreements between Western countries and the Afghan government as to how this process should proceed.." [more]

Saudi Oil Policy 'Linked to Western SWF Moves' [Sep 30]
"Saudi Arabia is increasingly linking its policy of how much oil it should pump to measures in the West against sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) given its fast growing foreign assets, a leading Saudi bank said yesterday. The Kingdom could decide on higher oil production if it feels that return from its oil revenues is high enough in the long term, the Saudi American Bank (Samba) said in its latest monthly bulletin. The report said Riyadh's oil policy is determined by its perception of the fact that oil is an exhaustible resource with a finite revenue stream, and a source of national wealth which presents intergenerational equity issues. 'Essentially the Kingdom faces a choice between extracting or preserving oil reserves. Amongst the many complex and interlinked factors influencing this choice is the rate of return available on reinvesting the proceeds of extracted oil'.. ..'if these returns are high there is an increasing incentive to produce more oil and transform the proceeds into other forms of wealth which can be enjoyed by future generations,' the bulletin said. 'Conversely if returns are low, there is more of an incentive to leave oil in the ground. This issue has become more topical as it touches on the mounting public concern expressed in some OECD countries over the activities of SWFs.'.." [more]

Arabtec Looks to Expand into Saudi as Liquidity Dries Up in Dubai’s Market [Sep 30]
"Dubai’s Arabtec Holding is looking to expand into Saudi Arabia as it looks to mitigate any potential slowdown in the UAE real estate sector. The UAE’s largest construction firm by market value has been looking to diversify from its core business and expand into new markets over the last year and chief executive Riad Kamal said in an interview yesterday it was now turning to Saudi Arabia. The firm expects to win three contracts in the kingdom next year worth in total as much as 3bn riyals ($800mn), Kamal told Reuters. “'audi Arabia has a very big and solid market and there are a limited number of contractors there but huge projects being developed,' he said. Fuelled by a more than fivefold rise in oil prices since 2002, the world’s largest oil exporter has been developing multibillion dollar projects to attract foreign investment and fill a shortage of housing units for the local market.." [more]

Iraq: Saudi Arabia Hands Over 16 Detainees [Sep 30]
"Iraq says Saudi Arabia has handed over 16 Iraqi detainees as part of a prisoner exchange between the neighboring countries. The Iraqi government says 16 of 443 Iraqis detained in Saudi Arabia were handed over Tuesday. A statement from National Security Adviser Mouwaffaq al-Rubaie says the Iraqi judiciary will investigate them. Authorities have not given reasons for their imprisonment. Iraq's government said earlier that eight Saudi detainees already have been returned to their country. The exchange is the outcome of a joint security operation between the two countries. It comes amid indications of a decrease in tension between the Shiite-led government and Iraq's predominantly Sunni Arab neighbors.." [more]

~~~~~~~~ [ Sep 29] ~~~~~~~~~

Arab Nations Will Reject Any Partial Peace Deal With Israel [Sep 29]
"Arab nations will totally reject any partial or interim solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict because historically such arrangements have become permanent, Saudi Arabia's foreign minister said on Saturday. While supporting current Israeli-Palestinian negotiations to reach 'a comprehensive final solution', Prince Saud Al Faisal said 'the least we expect from Israel during these negotiations is that it should halt all colonisation operations.' 'The continuation of colonisation activity in the occupied Arab 
territories renders the negotiations meaningless and makes it difficult for us to convince our peoples of the feasibility and benefits of achieving peace,' he said.. ..Prince Saud said the colonisation problem continued to be the 'one issue that threatens to bring down the whole peace process.'.." [more]

Saudi Arabia Backs Doha Agreement [Sep 29]
"Saudi Arabia's foreign minister praised over the weekend Lebanon's efforts to implement the Doha agreement, as his Egyptian counterpart said his country's diplomatic efforts had allowed feuding Lebanese to reach the accord. Saudi Foreign Minister Saud al-Faisal said during his speech at the United Nations General Assembly on Saturday that the kingdom supported the Doha agreement, which paved the way for improved relations between Lebanese parties. Faisal said he hoped that the Lebanese would agree to halt the internal use of weapons. He also praised the recent agreements reached between Syria and Lebanon regarding diplomatic exchanges and border demarcation. He added that he supported efforts to undertake national dialogue, and underlined the importance of the Lebanese state having the ability to assert its authority throughout the country.." [more]

Saudi Kayan Enters US $6 bn Financial Deal for New Complex [Sep 29]
"An affiliate of the Saudi Basic Industries Corporation (SABIC), the Saudi Kayan Petrochemical Company (SAUDI KAYAN), entered into US$6 billion financing arrangements (SR 22.5 billion ) for 15 years with a group of banks and financial institutions to finance part of the expenses of building its new (Saudi Kayan) complex in Jubail Industrial City. The complex will be the world's largest integrated petrochemical complex. The financing package is diverse and includes local, regional, international, Islamic and export credit agency debt. Saudi Kayan was advised by Arab Banking Corporation, BNP Paribas and Samba. The initial Mandated Lead Arrangers are ABN AMRO Bank N.V., Arab Banking Corporation, BNP Paribas, HSBC Bank plc and Samba Financial Group.. ..The SAUDI KAYAN complex, currently under construction, is expected to go on-stream in 4th Q 2010 .." [more]

Saudis Invest More Than $2 Billion in Joint Projects with Lebanon [Sep 29]
"The head of the Saudi-Lebanese Business Council has said that the body will launch in the near future projects worth $2.67 billion between Saudi Arabia and Lebanon after a two-year standstill. The Council 'will soon launch projects worth 10 billion Riyals ($2.67 billion) in the fields of trade, agriculture, industry, tourism, and real state between the two countries,' Abdul Muhsin al-Hkeer told alaswaq.net website on Sunday. 'The stabilizing situation in Lebanon pushes Saudis' to invest in Lebanon, he said, adding that 'the security and political stability constitute a fundamental investment factor.' 'Everybody here (Saudi Arabia) feels comfortable and is optimistic about the positive developments' in Lebanon, al-Hkeer told the site. He said the announced projects come after a two-year standstill as a result of the deteriorating situation in Lebanon.." [more]

Saudi Shares Fall 14.8% in Ramadan and 20.2% in Q3 [Sep 29]
"Despite its rebound by 6.6% yesterday, Saudi shares ended Ramadan trading with a sharp decline of 14.8%. Saudi shares also ended the third quarter down 20.2%, becoming the worst performer among all Gulf stock markets with a decline of 32.4% since the beginning of the year. One day before the start of the Eid vacation, Gulf markets registered a strong rise on the approval of the rescue package by the US Congress estimated at $700bn to save the financial institutions. The Saudi market saw the biggest rebound, of 6.6%, after a series of declines which pushed the index down below 6.900 points for the first time in 15 years.." [more]

~~~~~~~~ [ Sep 28] ~~~~~~~~~

No Interim Peace Deal With Israel, Saudi Says [Sep 28]
"Arab nations will totally reject any partial or interim solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict because historically such arrangements have become permanent, Saudi Arabia's foreign minister said Saturday. While supporting current Israeli-Palestinian negotiations to reach 'a comprehensive final solution,' Prince Saud Al Faisal said 'the least that we expect from Israel during these negotiations is that it should halt all settlement operations.' 'The continuation of settlement activity in the occupied Arab territories renders the negotiations meaningless and makes it difficult for us to convince our peoples of the feasibility and benefits of achieving peace,' he said. At a Security Council meeting Friday on Israeli settlements, held at Saudi Arabia's request, Saud said the settlement problem is the 'one issue that threatens to bring down the whole peace process.'.." [more]

Concerns Grow Over Saudi’s $26bn Economic City [Sep 28]
"Envisaged as the largest real estate project of its kind in Saudi Arabia, the $26bn King Abdullah Economic City is intended to transform the west coast port area of Jeddah into a centre for foreign investment. But three years after the project was announced leading analysts are growing sceptical of its future, with many now questioning the economics of the venture. Roughly the size of Washington DC, King Abdullah Economic City (KAEC), is intended to be a cornerstone for diversifying the economy away from oil.. ..Saudi lags behind more moderate Gulf business hubs in attracting foreign investors because of its draconian investment rules and tightly regulated bureaucracy. Al Qaeda’s continued presence in the kingdom, where the group has repeatedly targeted foreign workers and interests makes the project even less appealing for international investors. KAEC is the first concerted effort by the kingdom’s rulers to redress this by creating a foreigner-friendly enclave modeled on tax-free business parks in the UAE and governed by its own regulations and laws. 'Although nothing has been said officially about increased liberties, behind the scenes people are saying that the cities will have to open up to attract foreign investment,'.." [more]

Saudi Call to Meet Nuclear Obligation [Sep 28]
"Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal yesterday called on Iran to comply with its nuclear obligations to spare the Middle East region 'devastating conflicts, futile arms races and serious environmental hazards.' 'We take very seriously the undertakings of Iran to fully and strictly respect its obligation to prevent the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction,' he said in written remarks circulated at the 192-member UN General Assembly. 'We hope that this obligation will be put into practical effect in such a way as to ensure a peaceful and rapid solution to the problem of the Iranian nuclear programme and save the region from devastating conflicts, futile arms races and serious environmental hazards,' he added. His remarks were released as the UN Security Council met to consider a short draft resolution reaffirming existing sanctions against Tehran over its refusal to suspend sensitive nuclear fuel work which could be used to build a nuclear weapon.." [more]

Saudi Stocks Hit 1-Year Low [Sep 28]
"Saudi Arabian shares fell, with the benchmark index closing at its lowest in almost 15 months, on concern that the US banking crisis will affect local lenders and liquidity ahead of the Eid al-Fitr holidays. The Tadawul All Share Index declined 2% to 6,993.13 in Riyadh, its lowest level since July 3, 2007. The index has dropped 7.8% in four trading days. Of the stocks in the index, 96 fell, 21 rose and eight were unchanged. 'Investors are worried the events in the US will have an impact on banks here; I am sure 
we are exposed slightly,’' said Waleed Madani, vice president at investment bank Financial Transaction House. 'Sentiment is bad, there is little liquidity in the market and we are in the final days before the holidays.’'.." [more]

Kingdom’s ‘Economic Freedom Index’ Raised [Sep 28]
"Saudi Arabia is the world’s 60th freest economy, and is ranked 6th out of 17 countries in the Middle East-North Africa region, according to this year’s 'Index of Economic Freedom' report by The Heritage Foundation, a Washington-based think-tank and The Wall Street Journal. The Kingdom’s overall score is above the regional average, the report said. It’s economy 'is 62.8 percent free (and).. ..overall score is 1.2 percentage points higher than last year, reflecting improved scores in four of the 10 economic freedoms,' the report said. Saudi Arabia scored very well in fiscal freedom, labor freedom, and business freedom. Except for a 2.5 percent Islamic zakat charitable contribution, the government imposes no taxes on personal or corporate income. The labor market is flexible, the report noted. In the most recent year, overall tax revenue as a percentage of GDP was 5.1 percent.." [more]

Kingdom’s Current Account Surplus to Reach SR517.5bn [Sep 28]
"Saudi Arabia’s current account surplus, because of high oil export revenues, is expected to reach an all-time high of SR517.5 billion ($138 billion) this year compared to SR356.25 billion ($95 billion) in 2007. According to the National Commercial Bank’s (NCB’s) Saudi Economic Perspectives report, July 2008, which was released recently, the Kingdom’s oil export revenues are expected to increase by 26 percent to a new record of around SR971.25 billion ($259 billion) in 2008. Non-oil exports are also expected to grow at a slightly slower pace of around 8 percent to SR112.50 billion ($30 billion). Nevertheless, total exports are forecast at around SR1.08 trillion ($289 billion) in 2008, compared to SR873.75 billion ($233 billion) in the previous year.. ..However, the government will most likely exceed budgeted expenditures by an average of 13-15 percent to reach around SR507 billion. The government’s inflation alleviation package, which includes a public sector pay rise and direct subsidies on foodstuffs, building materials, and other consumer goods will probably be one factor for the government’s overspending this year.." [more]

Saudi Arabia Helping With Secret Taliban Peace Talks [Sep 28]
"Saudi Arabia is helping arrange secret peace negotiations with the Taliban aimed at reducing violence in Afghanistan, according to newspaper reports. The Observer reports that the British and Afghan governments had held talks with the rebel group, that was deposed from power in the 2001 invasion, in Pakistan's city of Quetta, which involved a list of demands from both sides. Discussions, with logistic and diplomatic support provided by Britain, are said to be taking place with district-level Taliban officials and Afghan president Hamid Karzai is also aware of the negotiations, it is thought.. ..A Foreign Office spokesman told the Observer he had no knowledge of the Saudi initiative but stated that the British government supported the Afghan state's policy of reconciliation.." [more]

Oil Prices and the GCC: Could the Region be Stoking Oil Prices? [Sep 28]
"With constrained supply and growing demand, the exportable surplus from the GCC has fallen for the first time and this appears to be unavoidable, rather than intentional. Record oil prices are no longer driving GCC growth, but GCC growth may be driving up oil prices.. ..The specific case of the oil-surplus GCC shows that domestic demand growth has exceeded supply growth, and as a result the exportable surplus of oil has fallen in 2007. With record economic growth reflected in rising energy demand, the shrinking exportable surplus is likely to stoke oil prices. Hence, having once been the swing producer of oil, the GCC may no longer be able to play a role in rectifying the global imbalance.. ..Saudi’s ability to step into the void, as it had in the past, has been missing in recent years.. ..The special relationship that the US has with Saudi Arabia is contingent on an uninterrupted supply of oil at a reasonable price. In exchange for this, we believe the US maintains a security umbrella on the GCC, which explains why it acted so swiftly after Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990.." [more]

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