As many readers know, SUSRIS is a private-sector, non-partisan information resource sponsored by the Washington-based National Council on US-Arab Relations. Not having any affiliation with any government, it sometimes takes us by surprise to be approached in email or phone calls from visa applicants and others seeking this or that government service, from this or that government. I'm sure we, in turn, surprise people when they learn that our editorial offices are located in Tennessee's Highland Rim. 

We occasionally joke that we have Tennessean Al Gore, the self-styled "creator of the Internet," to thank for enabling us to work from such a great location. The downside of relying on the Internet and the telephone so much is in missing some of the pop-up opportunities to stay connected to people that is presented in places like Washington, our former base of operations. We were recently thrilled to learn that Mr. Rami Khouri, columnist and executive editor of Beirut's Daily Star -- the leading English language newspaper in the Middle East -- was visiting our neighborhood recently -- as a guest lecturer at Maryville College, on the doorstep of the Great Smoky Mountains National Park.

Mr. Khouri arrived in Maryville to speak at the college's �When East Meets West: The U.S. and the Middle East� lecture series fresh from his panel appearance on the CNN special report, "In God's Name: A Global Summit with President Clinton." Mr. Khouri's presentation at Maryville, titled, "What Has Broken Down? The Perils and Promise of Communications Between the Arab World, the Middle East, and the West," kept a large audience engrossed for almost two hours, demonstrating both his endurance and his passion for dialogue. We were fortunate that Mr. Khouri was able to spend time, afterward, to elaborate on some of the points made in his presentation and to focus in on US-Saudi relations as seen from the perspective of someone who reports on regional developments.

{Mr. Khouri's Maryville College presentation will be provided in full on SUSRIS' companion web site ArabiaLink.com.]

SUSRIS: Mr. Khouri, thank you for sharing your perspectives on the Middle East with us today.   How would you describe the state of the Saudi-US relationship?

Rami Khouri: It strikes me that the Saudi-American relationship has passed through its most difficult moments and there is a serious attempt on both sides to try to get back to normal. 9-11 was a difficult time obviously because there were Saudis among the terrorists. The Bush Administration responded with talk of draining the swamp -- you have these Middle Eastern countries from which terrorism emerged and attacked the United States. Therefore these societies need to radically reform. 

That initial broad-brush simplistic approach has shown its weaknesses and limits. I think there is now a much more realistic understanding of the facts. The terrorists are attacking Arab countries as much as they are foreign countries, and Saudi Arabia has been a victim numerous times. There is an appreciation in the United States that the Saudis are seriously fighting the terrorism threat, while six, eight years ago the Americans probably felt they weren�t doing enough. That was obvious. There has been a clear change in the Saudi approach to fighting terrorism. 

Also the Saudis have always been quite realistic and sensible in their oil policies. In terms of price stability and supply stability the relationship has always been a functional one between the United States and Saudi Arabia. There have been no problems there. 

One of the most interesting aspects of the relationship in recent years has been the Saudis being barometers of wider Arab sentiments. For instance, the Saudis are constantly telling the Americans and the world about the need to solve the Palestine problem. This is a key element of fighting radicalism in the region. 

There was also a recent interesting development during the Lebanon war when the Saudis released a statement chastising the United States. 

The Royal Court was publicly chastising the United States, not just chastising but warning the United States. They were very frank, blunt words from friends of the United States saying, look there are problems in this region which are partly caused by Israeli policies and American support for those policies which are creating tremendous anger and tension and pressures in the region -- the Arab world has tried the peace option, and if it doesn�t work there is always a war option. 

The Saudis weren�t saying they are going to go to war. What they were saying is that masses of people will not be silent forever in the face of injustice. If America is seen to be complicit in Israeli aggression or occupation or barbaric warfare, especially against civilians, then the anger will be directed against America as well. That was very startling to me. It was very striking because the Saudis above all else are discreet. They don�t identify countries by name like that. They don�t talk of a war option. This was really unprecedented Saudi public political language -- unprecedented in my lifetime. 

The United States should understand it as being a very significant sign or barometer of the nature of concern in the Arab countries -- concern about the trend of radicalism, extremism, public political anger and the role of the United States and Israel in that process. So that strikes me as something quite new and important and the more that the Saudis speak out like this, honestly, the better it is for everybody.

SUSRIS: The Royal Court statement you are referring to followed a public denunciation by Saudi Arabia of Hezbollah and its backers for �creating a gravely dangerous� situation. In light of the earlier message blaming Hezbollah and its sponsors what was behind the second message, the Royal Court statement? Was it a reflection of the discontent of the so-called �Arab Street�?

Khouri: You know, I think the two statements are not contradictory, because the second statement wasn�t saying Hezbollah was right. The first statement said that Hezbollah was reckless or whatever the word they used, I can�t remember 

SUSRIS: �Miscalculated adventures,� I believe.

Khouri: Yes, something like that. Other people in the Arab world said the same thing, including many people in Lebanon. So it was just surprising that they said it in public -- not that they said it, but that they said it in public. But it was an honest statement that reflected their views and many other people held those views. 

The second statement, which was critical of the United States and referred to the United States by name, was obviously a reaction to events on the ground. It didn�t negate the first statement. It said that while Hezbollah was practicing adventurism or whatever, the Israelis are now doing something much worse, the Americans are supporting them and there are consequences to this kind of policy. 

It reflected the seriousness of the situation in terms of popular Arab sentiment. It also reflected Saudi concerns that the Arab regimes themselves are uncomfortable with this kind of mass political anger. It�s unlikely that the widespread anger of the man on the street in the Arab world is going to threaten any Arab regime. I don�t expect there to be any threats to Arab regimes. What it does do, however, is to increase the support for some of the Islamist groups around the region. It�s possible -- in some cases that individuals already angry with what�s going on and humiliated -- it�s possible a few of them will go off and join terror groups like bin Laden�s. So it could possibly lead to greater terrorism and that terrorism is directed against Arab regimes and leaderships as well as Israel and the United States. So I think the Royal Court statement accurately reflected those concerns.

SUSRIS: I�d like to come back to the regional relationships because there are a lot of pieces here to discuss but first let�s finish talking about the elements of the Saudi-US relationship. The connections at the government and business levels seem to be much better off than the people to people relationship. How do you assess the connections and perceptions of the publics on both sides? Where are we now? Where are we going? Is it getting worse? Is it getting better?

Khouri: My sense is that the people to people relationship is actually deteriorating a little bit, not massively, but it�s still defined by a combination of ignorance, some resentment and some anger, on both sides. It�s not helped by the kind of high-level American statements, especially by President Bush, constantly talking about Islam and fascism and terrorism, and Islam and fascism and terrorism in the same breath, speech after speech after speech. That tends to reinforce the image in the United States public, which is ignorant of Islam and Arabs because they don�t interact with those societies.  It tends to expand this perception in the United States that Islam as something problematic, broadly speaking. Islam is not associated with baseball and Crackerjacks and fun times. Islam is associated with threats, with threat levels and societies that have a lot of anger against the United States and occasionally send terrorists to the United States.

The people to people relationship in both directions remains I think mired in the quagmire, the mud of post 9-11. Even though governments are doing okay, and business people will always find a way to do business, the people to people perceptions are not good. 

It works the other way too. Many people in Saudi Arabia and the Arab world are concerned about American attitudes towards them. They are worried about security and visa issues. They are worried about what will happen if they invest their personal money in the United States. Will it get confiscated one day? These are real concerns that they have. 

This situation is a consequence of acts of violence by terrorists, but also acts of violence by governments, like the situation in Iraq that I think many Saudis have problems with. So it�s a function of acts of individuals, terrorists, governments, whatever acts of violence. It is also a function of the rhetoric that you hear and this is where the American side, I think, is more at fault. The Saudis tend to be quite measured in their public statements. That�s why the Saudi statement during the Lebanon crisis was so dramatic. It is in the nature of Saudi diplomacy is to be discreet. Arabs in general tend to be low key. They don�t like to wash their dirty laundry in public, but the Saudis are even more discreet. So I think it�s a situation that�s going to stay like it is for a while. 

The good news, though, is that when people meet on an individual or group level, whether it�s for sports or tourism or business or education or whatever they need, they meet and everything is fine. These tensions dissipate like a fog lifting when the sun comes out. It doesn�t worry me in the long run because we know how these tensions emerged and we know that they are quite thin and superficial. So I�m not too worried about it. 

SUSRIS: Let�s get back to the regional relationships. What do you think is the view from Riyadh of increasing Iranian influence around the neighborhood? 

Khouri: I don�t know the Saudi government thinking that well. The only thing I can comment on is what I see happening in the region. There you see evidence of Saudi concern about Iran, about what�s going on in Iraq, about Hezbollah in Lebanon. 

There are Saudi concerns over the signs the political order in the Middle East is changing. There are signs, as well, of possible forces that could lead to more tension and violence and instability. The Saudis are clearly concerned about Iranian influence. It is sometimes used, implemented or activated through other Shiites, like Hezbollah, and sometimes through political alliances with others such as the Syrians or even Hamas, which is a Sunni movement. 

So I think it is not so much a Shia problem as it is an Iranian radical problem. The fear is not that the Shiites are getting stronger and Iran is empowering the Shiites in the Middle East. You have Saudi Shiites and you have Shiites from other Arab countries but I think the Arab identity is probably stronger than the Shiite identity. 

I always thought nationalism was stronger than religious identity in most cases. You saw this with the Iraqi Shia in Iraq during the war with Iran. National identity is very strong. What you have is an Iranian government that is radical and exporting this radicalism. They are trying to mobilize allies and partners around the region to form a loose resistance and rejection front including Hamas, Hezbollah, Muslim Brothers, Syria, some progressives, some nationalists, whatever. The purpose is Iran�s fight against American hegemony and against Israeli occupation as they see it. That�s what worries the Saudis a little bit. This is my perception and you see it in situations where the Saudis try to step in and play a mediating role when they can. For example, as with Syria and Lebanon, at one point they were trying to play a role 

SUSRIS: They certainly played a significant role in the recent Lebanon crisis, providing $1.5 billion to stabilize the economy and for emergency relief. Is this the type of role we can expect to see them play?

Khouri: Well, they get drawn into these situations sometimes. They are a major Arab power -- a financial power, a religious power. Their ideology is low key but they do have an ideological orientation. It is quite pro-Western and pro-free market. But they also have very principled stands on issues so I think they�re constantly trying to balance all of these factors. 

They are not very happy with the mainstream Islamist movements, in my opinion, but they can probably live with them better than they can live with the terrorist movements. 

The Saudis are challenged by the circumstances of the region around them and their own terror and radicalism problems at home. They are challenged to be more decisive and more active diplomatically, probably more than they would like to be. Their tendency is to be low key and quiet, but you can�t have such a big power in the region being docile. And of course you know there is the Iranian issue with nuclear weapons and the threats against Iran that result.

SUSRIS: That�s where I was going next, the nuclear question. The Saudis are in a difficult situation. Riyadh doesn�t want Iran to develop a nuclear weapon but also doesn�t want the United States to resort to a military confrontation. How can those positions be reconciled?

Khouri: Yes, it is a concern for the Saudis, and their concerns are twofold. They are concerned about Iran having a nuclear weapon and throwing its weight around the region. Iran is not going to actually use such a weapon. I think the Saudis are just concerned about a more assertive Iran. 

They are concerned about the implications of an American-Israeli attack against Iran to stop the nuclear developments. That would be bad because they might get dragged into it. They might be a target of Iranian revenge. They are concerned about the environmental issues -- nuclear fallout. Obviously, everybody in the Gulf shares that concern. The Saudis are concerned about a radical change in the balance of power in the region. If the West accommodates Iran with some kind of arrangement that asserts Iran�s supremacy in the Gulf the Saudis obviously wouldn�t like that. If there is a deal between Iran and the West, which is possible, I think that would allow Iran to have continued strong influence in the region.

The way to offset that is to solve the Arab-Israeli problem. When you solve the Arab-Israeli problem you take away a huge element that Iran exploits to penetrate the region and develop close working relations beyond their borders. If you solve the Arab-Israeli question you wouldn�t have Hamas and Iran; and Syria and Iran. It would change the dynamics in the region, and therefore change Iran�s relationship with the region. 

Saudi concerns about Iran fall into several categories but a lot of the issues are not in the Saudi�s hands to do anything about. It�s the Iranian-American relationship that�s key.

SUSRIS: Saudi Arabia has great strategic interests in Iraq and again Iran is a major player there. Saudi Arabia has tried to play a role. Last year they facilitated an emergency summit in Cairo bringing all the Iraqi parties together that resulted in more Sunni participation in the December vote. But compared to the high stakes in Iraq for Saudi Arabia there is only so much they can do. Where do you see the possibilities or the limitations for Saudi Arabia vis a vis Iraq?

Khouri: My impression is that from the region only the Iranians now can play a significant role externally. The Iranians and the Americans are the two key parties right now who can have a role in Iraq. Saudi Arabia? I just don�t know. 

SUSRIS: Stand back and be nervous?

Khouri: Yeah I think they�re obviously nervous but I don�t know if they are just standing back, but I honestly just don�t know. But being nervous, clearly most people in the region are worried about Iraq, because the implications are serious. 

In both directions, if Iraq succeeds like the Americans want it to succeed -- which is not likely, there�s perhaps a two percent chance that Iraq becomes stable and democratic and prosperous without the American forces there. Who knows, it might happen. I doubt it, but maybe a few years down the road it could happen.

SUSRIS: Two percent isn�t very good odds.

Khouri: Yes, the chances are really slim, very unlikely. I just leave that two percent there because you never know, you can�t read the future. You might have a miraculous transformation. The Iraqi politicians could get together. They could agree to a constitution. Americans could leave. The Iraqis could stop the terrorism. It�s possible. It�s in fact in Iran�s interest to help bring that about, because if there is a stable Iraq is going to be very friendly with Iran. 

In any case, if Iraq succeeds and becomes a stable democracy many people in the Arab countries may not like that because they might find it intensifies the pressure on them to become more democratic. I am not just talking about the Saudis. Many Arab countries are not happy with that prospect. On the other hand, if it gets worse, if a civil war breaks out, that�s bad as well as any possible consequences and we already have some of the negative consequences -- the expansion of terrorism training, experience and networks. So yes, the Saudis are concerned about it.

SUSRIS: What do you think Americans should know about Saudi Arabia?

Khouri: I think the American public should be aware of the slow but steady attempts at reform in Saudi Arabia. There is recognition among Saudis that they must evolve their system. They don�t want radical change. They don�t want change forced on them from outside. But they do understand -- the leadership, clearly, and the mainstream of society too -- the need for an evolution. 

Whatever you want to call it -- reform, more liberal, more democratic, more participatory, more modern, whatever word you want to use -- there has to be an evolution in the system that allows people to participate more in decision-making. That is the big Saudi challenge, and the government and the mainstream in society, they get it. They understand that and they are trying to bring about change in a very slow, steady, systematic manner. It�s probably slower than many people want, but the fact is that it is happening.

SUSRIS: Is it too fast for some?

Khouri: Yes, but I think the pace is realistic for most Saudis. Yes, some people might complain. But the important fact is that it is starting to happen. You are getting women doing things that they couldn�t do before. There has been voting in municipalities. There�s a process that is moving faster than it was before. And I think that�s important to understand. 

These societies only move at their own pace. You can�t force a process of reform from outside or a pace that is determined by outside. Saudi Arabia is very conservative, very traditional. It had been politically very static. It�s now evolving, moving, which is a significant historical phenomena in the context of the Arab world. 

The important thing is to keep it going, to keep the process going. Speed it up when you can but make sure it doesn�t stall, because many reform processes in Arab countries have been launched but after lots of promises and big hopes then they were completely ignored or frozen. So maybe the Saudi approach to slower change but at a steady pace, maybe that is a more appropriate way. We will have to see.

SUSRIS: King Abdullah has been on the throne for a little over a year, and we wish him a long life, but will the Saudi commitment to reform outlast him?

Khouri: My hunch is that reform in Saudi Arabia is not completely personality driven. It is partly personality driven. Generational change is a factor. You have a whole generation who are 35 years old and younger who have been educated and exposed to the world. The demography of Saudi Arabia is very different than it was in 1970 during the first oil boom. So this is a whole different demographic ballgame. 

There is the fact that you do have reformers in the system, in the bureaucracy, in the royal family. There is greater private sector interaction with everyone talking about these issues so I think it is not something that will be stopped or reversed whenever there is a succession. That�s my hunch.

SUSRIS: Thank you Mr. Khouri for taking time to talk with us here in Tennessee and have a safe trip home.

[Mr. Rami Khouri was interviewed on the campus of Maryville College, Maryville, Tennessee, USA on September 20, 2006]

Introduction of Rami Khouri by Karyn Adams, Director of Communications, Maryville, College

As executive editor of the largest English-language newspaper published throughout the Middle East, Khouri conducts research and writes extensively on the range of roles Middle Eastern culture, politics and religion play worldwide.

He is a senior associate at the Program on the Analysis and Resolution of Conflict at the Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs at Syracuse University and a fellow of the Palestinian Academic Society for the Study of International Affairs in Jerusalem.

Previously the editor-in-chief of The Jordan Times and writer for international publications, such as The Financial Times, The Boston Globe, and The Washington Post, Khouri was also the general manager of Al Kutba Publishers in Amman for 18 years and continues to be a consultant for the Jordanian tourism ministry on biblical archaeological sites. 

He is the author of A View from the Arab World, an internationally syndicated weekly political column at www.agenceglobal.com.

Well-respected among his peers, academics and the media, Khouri has severed as a Nieman Journalism Fellow at Harvard University and was appointed a member of the Brookings Institution Task Force on U.S. relations with the Islamic World.

More about Rami Khouri

Rami George Khouri is a Palestinian-Jordanian and US citizen whose family resides in Beirut, Amman, and Nazareth. 

He is editor-at-large of the Beirut-based Daily Star newspaper, published throughout the Middle East with the International Herald Tribune. He is an internationally syndicated political columnist and author. 

Recent Articles by Rami Khouri

• Region in Crisis - Qana: Into Uncharted Diplomatic Terrain - Rami G. Khouri - SUSRIS IOI - Jul 31, 2006

• Time to Bring Home Arab Human Development - Rami G. Khouri- SUSRIS IOI - Jan 21, 2005

• Saudi-US Relations Perspectives: Crisis in the Middle East - SUSRIS Special Section

• Crisis in the Region: Who Is Responsible? - SUSRIS IOI - Jul 18, 2006

• Region in Crisis: Consultation - President Bush and Saudi Officials in White House Meeting - SUSRIS Special Report - Jul 23, 2006

• Region in Crisis: US-Saudi Relations - A Conversation with F. Gregory Gause, III - SUSRIS Interview - Jul 28, 2006