SUSRIS is pleased to bring you a conversation with Professor Gregory Gause on this week's developments in the Middle East. He spoke with us today by phone from his office at the University of Vermont.

The conversation is available in streaming audio on the SUSRIS Web site (link below) with the highlights provided here. We welcome your feedback on the usefulness of streaming audio as a way to provide you the latest information and insight on Saudi-US relations. Just send your comments to < [email protected] >

LISTEN TO THE AUDIO

Professor F. Gregory Gause, III
Associate Professor of Political Science, University of Vermont

On Nov. 25 Vice President Cheney visit to Saudi Arabia:

"It's clear that the administration ahead of the meeting with Maliki was trying to sound out its regional allies.. ..reflection of the administration's desire to keep the Saudis in the loop and seek their help in Iraq.."

On Prince Turki's statement about US not "leaving [Iraq] uninvited":

"..a reflection of Saudi thinking these days.. ..Saudi cabinet had a meeting a couple of days ago and put out a statement that was quite direct for them.. saying to the US 'you can't leave now' because if you leave now.. the historic balances within the region will be disrupted.. a clear signal that they meant the Shia will get more powerful than they should be.."

On Nawaf Obaid's Nov. 29 Washington Post op-ed concerning Saudi intervention in Iraq:

"..the idea the Saudis as a government, as a matter of policy, back Sunni organizations, Sunni militias, in Iraq is, I think, a perfectly credible threat.. ..this is part of the full-court Saudi press in the run up to the Baker-Hamilton report in which they want to say that, "Hey, you broke this place, you can't leave it without considering the interests of your allies in the region.."

On the threat to drive oil prices down as an economic wedge against Iranian interests:

"..it's a risky thing. Because they can effect the market enormously but they can't completely control it. They have an economic model now that's based on a certain price for a barrel of oil.. ..just because the Iranians would hurt more doesn't mean there's not a risk to the Saudis.. ..They want to signal the US about how furious they are about this."

On rising Iranian power:

"..I think the Saudis are acutely sensitive to balance of power concerns in the Middle East and they see Iran as a growing power. Add to that the ideological problems that they have with the Islamic Revolutionary regime and you have the sense in Riyadh that they have to block this power from becoming dominant in the region.. They see it on the march in Iraq. They see it on the march in Lebanon. And they are worried about it. On the other hand the Saudis don't want a direct confrontation with Iran.."

On US-Saudi relations:

"..they stake their foreign policy very much on a strong relationship with the United States.. ..facing a potential regional power like Iran they need an outside ally. But they are very nervous that we will not take into our account, of our interests in Iraq, their interests. They see this continuously in Arab-Israeli questions where they don't think the United States takes into account the interests of friendly Arab states.. ..they fear that's going to happen in Iraq.. ..if they think we're pursuing a policy that harms their interests they'll take their own steps in Iraq.."