|
Since the crisis in Lebanon erupted a month ago Saudi Arabia has engaged in resolving the conflict. Today we are pleased to share an overview of that involvement and the prospects for Saudi Arabia's critical role in the days ahead by Nawaf Obaid, managing director of the Saudi National Security Assessment Project. Mr. Obaid makes the argument that Riyadh has an interest in restraining Iranian radical ambitions in Lebanon and the region, and the strength, through religious credentials and economic muscle, to do so.
SUSRIS thanks Mr. Obaid for permission to share his insights with you.
|
|
|
|
Saudi Arabia�s critical role in Lebanon
Counterweight to Iranian influence
By Nawaf Obaid
RIYADH, Saudi Arabia -- After over a decade of bloody conflict, the late Saudi King Fahd organized the
Taif Accords in
1989, which ended the civil war in Lebanon. Saudi Arabia then went on to finance much of that country's reconstruction. Could the Kingdom play a similar role today?
There is reason to hope that it could, because Saudi Arabia has both the strategic interest and the authority to limit the influence of Iran, which is responsible for much of the current violence. But before this can be accomplished, an immediate cease-fire is needed and U.N. Security Council Resolution 1559 must be fully implemented. Without these steps, the Saudi leadership will not be in a position to push for the disarmament of Hezbollah and a return to peace.
Saudi Arabia was the
first to condemn Hezbollah's
provocation. "There is a difference," Saudi Foreign Minister Saud al-Faisal said in a bluntly worded statement, "between legitimate resistance and the reckless adventures undertaken by (Hezbollah)." Shortly after, a senior cleric in the Saudi religious establishment issued a fatwa condemning the group. Unfortunately, the brutal response by Israel -- in which hundreds of civilians have been killed -- has undermined Saudi efforts to reign in both Hezbollah and Iran. For this to occur, the U.S. government must first use its considerable leverage over Israel to press for an immediate cease-fire. This should be followed by an exchange of Lebanese and Israeli prisoners and the return of the Shebaa Farms to Lebanon. At this point, Saudi Arabia would be in a position to build a strong Arab coalition to fight for the permanent disarmament of Hezbollah.
The next step would be the isolation of Iran and an attempt to undermine its ability to sow future chaos and bloodshed in the region. For years, Iran has planted the seeds of war in Lebanon. Since creating Hezbollah in 1982, Iran -- and to a lesser extent, Syria -- has provided the group with generous financial and military support, arming it with thousands of rockets. It is estimated that Iran provides between $100-150 million every year in cash and weapons to Hezbollah. And rather than condemning the group for launching its unprovoked attack. Tehran praised it -- even before the Israelis initiated their bloody and incommensurate counter-offensive. Responding to calls for the disarmament of Hezbollah, President Ahmedinejad flatly stated that this simply "will not happen." This was taken as a green light by Hezbollah's leader, Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, to continue his attacks against Israel. Meanwhile, leaders in Tehran criticized Saudi Arabia and others Arab states for not sufficiently fanning the flames of conflict.
These actions are an attempt to bolster Iran's standing in the region and to position it as a leader of the Muslim world. Such a scenario is highly unlikely, however, since Iran lacks the religious authority (it is minority Shiite), ethnic credentials (a non-Arab state), and the economic might (exporting just a quarter of the oil that Saudi Arabia does). Saudi Arabia, on the other hand, is likely to maintain its leading role in the region. The Kingdom has pledged an initial $1.55 billion in assistance to Lebanon -- a $550 million grant to help reconstruct the infrastructure that Israel is recklessly destroying and a $1 billion loan to shore up its currency reserves. At least another $500 million is promised for the reconstruction. The Saudi government is also strengthening its strategic position. It has increased defense spending by tens of billions of dollars as well as troop strength by 25 percent. As importantly, it has invested billions to increase its spare oil production capacity. In fact, enough spare capacity should be in place by early 2007 to offset all Iranian exports, thereby mitigating against the loss of Iranian oil, either through political choice or war. These policies ensure an effective counterbalance to Iran and limit the ability of certain circles in Tehran to further destabilize the region.
Crucial to disarming Hezbollah
Saudi Arabia not only has a strategic interest in reigning in Iran, but is well-positioned to do so. With the price of oil at a high, the Kingdom's influence as the world's central banker of energy is at its apex, making it the economic powerhouse of the Middle East. This, coupled with the fact that it is the birthplace of Islam and home to its two holiest sites, gives it considerable influence over both regional governments and the average Sunni, who make up 85-90 percent of the world's Muslims.
For all of these reasons, Saudi Arabia will be critical to disarming Hezbollah, containing the militant policies emanating from Tehran, and eventually implementing a lasting peace in the region. In fact, the resurrection of the Abdallah peace plan, which was embraced by the majority of the Arab world, will be much more likely in the post-war environment. But before this goal can be achieved, the Bush administration must stop Israel's senseless destruction of Lebanon and the international community must broker a deal which includes an exchange of prisoners and the return of Lebanese lands.
[Previously released by UPI]
Nawaf Obaid
is a Saudi national security and intelligence consultant based in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. He is currently the managing director of the Saudi National Security Assessment Project. He is also an adjunct fellow in the Office of the Arleigh Burke Chair in Strategy at
CSIS. Previously, he was a research fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. He was also the project director for a major study on Sino-Saudi energy rapprochement and its implications for U.S. national security, conducted for the director of net assessments in the Office of U.S. Secretary of Defense. His articles and opinion pieces have appeared in newspapers such as the Washington Post, New York Times, Financial Times, and International Herald Tribune. He is the author of The Oil Kingdom at 100: Petroleum Policymaking in Saudi Arabia (Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 2000) and coauthor, with Anthony H. Cordesman, of National Security in Saudi Arabia: Threats, Responses, and Challenges (Praeger/CSIS).
Mr. Obaid received a B.S. from Georgetown University�s School of Foreign Service, an M.A. from Harvard University�s Kennedy School of Government, and completed doctoral courses at MIT�s Security Studies Program.
Source: CSIS
Books by Mr. Obaid:
Also By Mr. Obaid:
