In the midst of the GCC�s annual ministerial and Heads of State Summit in Riyadh [Dec. 9-10], SUSRIS publisher of record and President of the National Council on U.S.-Arab Relations Dr. John Duke Anthony, who attended the summit, offered an on the spot and end-of-year reflection. 

In the essay that follows, he provides unique information and insight to all of the principal players, much of it privileged and derived from his many visits to the region over a period spanning four decades and counting. 

Dr. Anthony casts his net wide. He focuses not only on how the United States, Saudi Arabia, the other GCC countries, Iraq, and Iraq have figured into and related to issues including their respective interstate relationships in the period before the issuance of the Iraq Study Group�s report this past week. He also examines how they have been associated with and addressed such issues as the ongoing insurgency in Iraq, the continuing international impasse over nuclear developments as they involve Iran, and matters pertaining to terrorism and oil as well as a host of additional issues relating to the eastern Mediterranean and lands further east. 

Portions of this essay appeared in the Dubai-based Gulf Research Center�s 2005 Yearbook, to which the author and SUSRIS are indebted for permission to publish this edited and revised version. 

[This SUSRIS Item of Interest presents the introduction and links to the complete essay which is a 27 page PDF document posted on-line.]

Through a Looking Glass Darkly: Perspectives on the U.S.-Gulf Relationship with the Benefit of Hindsight from the Year Before 
John Duke Anthony

In looking back over the year that is rapidly coming to a close, a glance in the rear view mirror as to what had occurred during the immediately preceding twelve months is illuminative. It reveals insight into not only the highlights and low lights of what transpired in terms of major events and developments. It also enhances understanding of what happened, for which the implications and ramifications were not clearly perceived or assessed at the time. The exercise provides numerous signposts, warnings, and indications of what would continue to unfold, and in some cases would suddenly erupt, in the period that followed which have led to the uncertain and in many ways dangerous and unsettling present. 

As 2006 began, it did so against the backdrop of an immediately previous year of significant change amidst constancy in America's relations with the eight Gulf countries. In the broadest terms, the major areas in which Gulf-US interests and policies were affected the most included Iraq, Iran, Saudi Arabia, oil, and terrorism. This essay addresses the more prominent pluses and minuses registered in these five categories. Overall, Washington and most Gulf governments made major efforts to improve their strategies and tactics for addressing violent extremism, found ways to place their relations on a firmer foundation for the future, and where this seemed impossible in the near term, sought the means to sustain what all agreed was an unstable status quo. 

Although certain issues dating from the previous year and before remained unresolved, efforts to address certain other challenges met with varying degrees of success. One example of this was the December elections in Iraq, which resulted in the installation of Iraq's fourth, and by design, most "permanent" government since the American-led invasion and occupation of the country in March 2003. Four other successes were Saudi Arabia's holding of its first nationwide municipal elections, the peaceful transition of power to King Abdullah following the death of King Fahd, the Kingdom's admission into the World Trade Organization, and the establishment in Riyadh of the first international center devoted to continuous real-time dialogue between representatives of the world's major oil-producing and oil-consuming nations. Two more breakthroughs were Bahrain's and Oman's success in entering into free trade agreements with the United States. Finally, in addition to women obtaining the right to vote and run for public office in Kuwait, procedures were agreed there for an orderly and peaceful transition to a new ruler, following the death of the long-ailing Amir and the abdication of the country's crown prince for health reasons. 

Several intractable issues continued to threaten the near-term prospects for Gulf stability and security while remaining at the center of regional and international public attention. The most prominent case in point was the ongoing insurgency in Iraq as well as the political and economic instability there. The country veered ever closer to full-fledged geographic, ethnic, and religious civil war, and the trouble there showed no sign of abating anytime soon. In addition, tensions related to Iran increased dramatically following the mid-year election of a new head of state who seemed intent on pursuing a more hard-line foreign policy than any of his predecessors had since the death of Ayatollah Khomeini. The new president's controversial comments about the Holocaust and Israel were to provoke an international outcry. By year's end, the standing of the Islamic Republic's government in world affairs was worsened as a result of Tehran's unwillingness, as a matter of principle, to accommodate foreign concerns about the uses to which it might potentially put its programs of nuclear research and development. All was not well with the Saudi-American relationship despite numerous examples of heightened cooperation between the two countries' executive branches in matters related to terrorism, commercial issues, defense cooperation, and the security of oil supplies. Large sectors of the American public continued to view the Kingdom not exactly as a foe, but also not exactly as a firm and favored friend, an unalloyed ally, or a preferred partner. This was despite the continuing extraordinary range of strategic advantages and economic gains that both Saudi Arabia and the US derived from their ties with one another. 

On balance there remained no doubt that Gulf-US relations in general remained as important to the Gulf countries as they did to the United States. The ongoing and multifaceted challenges notwithstanding, this was partly out of a mutual preference associated with a natural tendency to perpetuate certain aspects of the relationship from comfortable years in the past. But it was also partly the result of the two sides' awareness that there were no viable short-term alternatives. For this reason, if no other, they remained committed to trying to find more successful and cost-effective ways to strengthen and expand the positive features of their relations while reducing the large number of unhealthy � and in some cases dangerous � points of contention and divergence.

Click here for the complete essay [PDF]

Arab-US Policymakers Conference Discussions on the GCC
The 25th Anniversary of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC): A Forum on the Future of the GCC
[audio files of speakers - courtesy of ArabiaLink.com ]

Oct 31 - The Gulf Cooperation Council: 25 Years of Accomplishments and Challenges
Rear Admiral Harold J. Bernsen, (USN, Ret.) 
H.E. Shaikh Terky bin Rashid Al-Khalifah 
Dr. Michael Collins Dunn 
Dr. Kenneth Katzman 
Dr. Joseph Moynihan 

Oct 31 - What Future for the GCC Region?
Ms. Anne Joyce 
HRH Prince Turki Al-Faisal 
Dr. Anthony H. Cordesman 
The Hon. Gordon Gray 

Oct 31 - Luncheon Keynote Address: A Vision of the Future of the GCC
Dr. Hussein Al-Athel 
HE Nasser bin Hamad bin Mubarak Al Khalifa 
Lt. Gen. David Barno (USA, Ret.) 
The Hon. W. Chas Freeman, Jr.