The End of Brinksmanship?
by Rami G. Khouri

BEIRUT -- Suddenly, the diplomatic meetings season seems to have broken out all over the Middle East, perhaps because the main players saw the looming catastrophe that hovers over this region, and decided to pull back from the brink.

The most important meeting is the one March 3, between Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and the Saudi leadership, including King Abdullah. Other significant gatherings include the March 10 meeting in Baghdad of regional states and world powers who will explore how to restore security and sovereignty in Iraq, the trip of an American assistant secretary of state to Syria to discuss humanitarian issues related to Iraqi refugee flows, last month's meetings of the Palestinian and Israeli leaders with US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, and the Hamas-Fateh leaders' meeting and agreement in Mecca under the auspices of Saudi Arabia.

I suspect that all this movement reflects a growing realization that everybody will lose if things continue on their present trajectory in the Middle East. The danger signs are symbolized by two violent and continuing trends that plague this region: the steady expansion and popularity of militias, resistance organizations and other powerful armed political groups, and some terrorists, that are beyond the control of governments and often challenge governments; and, the steady build-up of American-led armed forces in the region, combined with diplomatic pressure, aimed at Iran, Syria, Hizbullah, Hamas and others who oppose the American-British-Israeli-led alignment that includes several Arab governments.

This trend culminated in last summer's Israel-Hizbullah war, a worsening security situation in Iraq, and the continuing pressures against Iran and Syria. Both sides in this regional face-off continue to prove their strength in public opinion and in their determination to face down and, if necessary, militarily fight the other side. The big losers are incumbent Arab regimes -- uncomfortably caught in an untenable squeeze between the indigenous militancy of their own people and the aggressive militarism of their foreign allies -- and the ordinary citizens throughout the Arab world and Iran, who do not wish to see themselves hurled into the incoherence and suffering of open war that are the natural consequence of intemperate policies.

The leaders of both the American-British-Israeli-led alignment and their opponents have shown a stubborn streak that has turned this region into a large armed camp, of ongoing and potential battlefields, and militia proving grounds. The brinksmanship that all sides have engaged in has finally brought us all to the brink -- and what we see is not pretty at all. The frightening potential immediate future is exemplified by the common talk of the catastrophic regional and global consequences of what would happen if the United States invaded Iran, and of what is already happening as Iraq's troubles spill over into the region in the form of refugees, radicalism, political tensions, and a new generation of militias, resistance groups and terrorists.

So, now we decide to meet, and talk, driven often by Saudi Arabian mediation, but also by two other important forces that remain slightly imprecise today: increasing concern by ordinary Arabs, who do not want their world to be destroyed simply to affirm the political hormones of leaders in Damascus and Tehran (and their friends in Hizbullah and Hamas); and, global public opinion that is increasingly worried about the negative consequences of aggressive American-Israeli-led policies in the Middle East.

None of the meetings taking place these days is crucial in itself. All of them collectively, however, reflect a common perception that brinksmanship and bravado are useful short-term tactics, but not good long-term strategy. The meetings in Saudi Arabia will be important if they lead to other sessions with the real powers in Tehran linked to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Ahmadinejad is the advance party, not the real negotiator.

Similarly, the Baghdad meeting next weekend will prove fruitful if it paves the way for the four critical elements that Iraq needs: a more emphatic Anglo-American commitment to leave Iraq and allow it to regain sovereignty via a legitimate government; a political accord among Iraqis on constitutional power-sharing; collective efforts by all concerned neighbors to help as they can to end the insurgency, resistance, and sectarian strife inside Iraq; and, resolving tensions with Iran, Syria and others thorough diplomacy anchored in the international rule of law, rather than in Israeli-American-inspired regime change.

The American-Israeli-Palestinian meetings of recent months have achieved little or nothing, much like several American-Syrian meetings in 2002-04. So the mere act of meeting and engaging one's foes is not a guarantor of success. Let's hope the main players have the courage and humility to enter into genuine negotiations that require giving and taking in order to achieve a win-win situation, rather than merely transferring their gladiator games from one arena to another.


Rami G. Khouri is an internationally syndicated columnist, the director of the Issam Fares Institute at the American University of Beirut, editor-at-large of the Beirut-based Daily Star, and co- laureate of the 2006 Pax Christi International Peace Award.

Copyright 2007 Rami G. Khouri / Agence Global

Reprinted with permission

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