America's direct military role in Gulf security began with the collapse of the U. S.-Iranian relationship with the Iranian Revolution in 1979. As long as Washington's relationship with this largest and most powerful Gulf state remains hostile, there will be a need for an American military presence in the area. A friendly regime in Baghdad might mitigate that need, but will not eliminate it. Indeed, the first major American military deployment in the area occurred in 1987, when the United States was still cooperating with Saddam's regime. The fact that the Iranian regime seems now to be openly pursuing the acquisition of nuclear weapons will only intensify American worries about security in the area, and will reinforce for the Gulf monarchies the importance of their American security link. Until there is a fundamental change in American-Iranian relations, or until the world economy ceases to run on oil, the U. S. is fated to be directly involved politically and militarily in the Gulf.
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The Saudi-American Forum wishes to thank Dr. Gause for permission to share this important contribution to the dialogue on US-Saudi relations with you.  This paper was originally published by the Brookings Institution, Saban Center for Middle East Policy. 

"The Approaching Turning Point: The Future of U.S. Relations with the Gulf States" is being provided to Saudi-American Forum members in weekly serials due to the length of the report.  A complete version is posted to the Saudi-American Forum library.

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As a lynchpin of U.S. security strategy and policy in the Persian Gulf for over 50 years, Washington's relationship with Riyadh and the House of Al Saud has been a foundation of stability amidst the region's currents of instability. However bad things may have been in the Arab-Israeli conflict, Iraq, southern Lebanon or any number of other situations, the U.S.-Saudi relationship provided all concerned with a degree of assurance that events would not spin completely out of control. But this relationship is now under more pressure than at any time in recent memory. Various commentators have suggested that the partnership should be restructured to reflect what is described as a fundamentally adversarial relationship. The inference from such arguments is that a strong U.S.-Saudi relationship no longer serves U.S. strategic interests.

Much of the commentary on the U.S.-Saudi relationship focuses on supposed broad policy incongruence between the two countries. The two countries are said to differ in their approach to terrorism, religion, pluralism, human rights, the Arab-Israeli conflict, possible military action against Iraq, and Saudi Arabia's role and importance in world oil markets. Often left out from this commentary are the ongoing activities between the two countries that helped preserve regional security and stability over the decades, which stemmed in part from a shared strategic vision. While the term has become de rigueur of late, the United States could not have pursued its policy of "dual containment" during the 1990s without Saudi support. While many critics have emphasized that the policy had negligible impact on Iran, the policy of containment helped prevent Saddam Hussein from seriously disrupting regional peace and security during the 1990s. The Iraqi military remains hamstrung by a decade of sanctions, and WMD breakout was certainly made more difficult during the UNSCOM era.

Suggestions that the U.S.-Saudi relationship needs to be altered often ignore the organizations that have been created to manage this partnership - organizations that reflect a depth and complexity in Saudi-American relations that is generally unappreciated. In and of themselves, these entities and their activities do not justify preserving the status quo, but they do suggest that the U.S.-Saudi security partnership could be deconstructed only with great difficulty and with dramatic and unforeseen
consequences for regional security.                                                  [more]

[Previously distributed in GulfWire Perspectives, Sep. 13, 2002 and reprinted in the Saudi-American Forum.]

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Look Who's Talking...  The Saudi-US Relations Information Service web site features a discussion forum for you to post your ideas, opinions and questions.  To sign on and speak up Click Here.   Among the posts in current threads:

"I look forward to the day when Arabs do not feel that they have to look and act 'Americanized,' in order to fit in, here. I look forward to the day when I will be able to see American teenagers dress in Arab robes for no other reason than that they like the look and feel of the clothes. I look forward to the day when an Arab answer to Gloria Estefan or Shakira captures the popular American imagination.

"I prefer to assume that a good relationship between the US and Saudi Arabia is possible. If it is, I want it. Do they?"

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