Rachel Bronson: I
look forward to our conversation on this very important and topical
question.
Clarksville, Tenn.: I don't
understand why the United States hasn't gotten serious about
alternative fuel sources. Surely if there were ever a time to get
serious we have reached that time. There was some guy on TV the other
day saying the United States will always be dependent on Middle
Eastern oil. He sounded like man from the 18th-century proclaiming the
United States will always need buggy whips? The sad part is no one
seriously contested what he said.
Rachel Bronson: Focusing on
alternative fuel sources would be very useful regardless of the
politics of Saudi Arabia. The truth is that per capita use of
petroleum has decreased since the oil crises of 1973 and 1979. The
real problem isn't just what the United States consumes, but what
others consume as well. China and India are expected to dramatically
increase their demand. U.S. interest in Saudi oil has always had more
to do with the global economy than what it itself consumes. Saudi
Arabia is an important importer of petroleum to the United States, but
so is Canada, Mexico and Venezuela. Since the United States depends on
the global economy, it matters what happens in China and India.
That being said, I do agree, now would be a useful moment for our
politicians to be advertising carrots and sticks available to conserve
even more and explore other energy options.
New York, N.Y.: It would seem
that the Saudi government, which is among the world's most repressive
and which has allowed radical Islam to dominate its mosques and
schools, is part of the problem, not the solution. Your thoughts? Is
there any indication that the Bush Administration grasps this, or will
it continue to be business as usual?
Rachel Bronson: The Bush
Administration's position seems to be that the Saudi government is
doing a lot to fight terrorism and can do even more. Since May 2003,
Saudi Arabia turned a corner and began to aggressively go after some
of the areas of concern. For instance, it's rounded up about 2,000 of
the most radical clerics and dismissed them, or put them through
"re-education" programs. An international group that
carefully moderns laws regarding money laundering and terrorist
financing have come back with a recent report saying that Saudi Arabia
is complying with most international laws regarding financing. In
addition, Saudi Arabia itself has closed down some of its most visible
charities (i.e., al Haramain) and made it illegal for charities to
fund outside the Kingdom. In addition, they are cooperating with the
FBI and CIA to a greater extent than ever before. These are the kind
of things that the Bush Administration wants to see. They still have a
ways to go, but this is why word out of the Administration has been
generally positive.
Wheaton, Md.: Is it still the
official position of the Saudi government that Israel should be
destroyed?
Rachel Bronson: No.
Crown Prince Abdullah has called for
the recognition of Israel if Israel returns to 1967 borders. His ideas
were translated into an Arab League position, which also said that all
refugees have to return (although the Crown Prince notably did not say
that originally). This in some ways repeats a Saudi position called
the Fahd Plan from early 1981.
So, it's not official policy that Israel should be destroyed.
That doesn't mean that some important
Saudis don't think it should be, but it's not official policy. Also,
Saudi Arabian princes have raised large sums of money for the
Palestinians often funneling it towards radical groups.
Philadelphia, Pa.: What's with
senior Saudi officials blaming al Qaeda problems on
"Zionists?" Is this merely for internal consumption, or do
they actually believe it? And, why don't U.S. officials publicly
rebuke the Saudis when they make these claims?
Rachel Bronson: It is
incredibly frustrating.
Either they're just repeating an old mantra that they think has served
them well over the years. Or, I think more likely, they're trying to
shift the discussion. What you're seeing now from key leaders like
Prince Naif is this notion that the problem with the United States
isn't a larger general problem but a more limited disagreement with
the United States over Palestine and Israel. This then becomes an
answer to their domestic audience of why they can work with the United
States on terrorism (i.e., collaborate with CIA and FBI).
Whatever the justification, the logic is so contorted that it's hard
to make sense of it.
Washington, D.C.: What has
stopped the U.S. government from going to war with the Kingdom of
Saudi Arabia?
Rachel Bronson: Well, our
recent foray into Iraq doesn't lead many in Washington to believe we'd
be able to easily craft something better.
Saudi Arabia was instrumental in our success in Iraq. The war was
largely run out of Saudi Arabia, and when Turkey rebuffed the United
States, Saudi Arabia picked up a lot of the slack. So, it's been quite
helpful there.
The Saudi government has cracked down on terrorist financing.
Who would we replace the royal family with? For all its problems, the
royal family is seen as leading reform, not preventing it. Saudi
Arabia has a very conservative society and it's not clear that
removing the House of Saud would get us a more enlightened democratic
government that works well with the United States.
War in the Kingdom would send oil prices through the roof.
These are only some of the reasons the idea probably hasn't gotten
much serious thought.
Texas: How big a problem will
it be if a large part of the western expatriate community decides to
leave Saudi Arabia? (Many of them must surely be near the end of their
ropes .. ) Will the Saudis' ability to pump oil be affected?
Rachel Bronson: It will have
very serious consequences.
First and foremost, Saudi Arabia is in desperate need of investment --
this includes foreign direct investment and the bringing home of
hundreds of billions of Saudi money invested outside the Kingdom. With
a GDP of $8,800 (poor little Oman's is $8,100), this investment is
needed. An exodus by the expats will be a clear signal that it's not
safe to invest in Saudi Arabia. The Crown Prince's reform agenda will
go out the window, and Saudi Arabia's economic situation will further
spiral.
Also, if expats left in great number, it may or may not have an impact
on day-to-day operations (I've heard both sides argued by people who
should know), but it will have an impact on longer-term development,
which is equally important.
Harrisburg, Pa.: The Saudi
government has helped fight terrorism, yet, at the same time, don't
they also wish to reach out to elements of the Saudi public that
support the terrorists' objectives? How is the Saudi government doing
at keeping this balancing act from toppling?
Rachel Bronson: For the Saudi
Arabian leadership, the two go hand-in-hand. They've been aggressively
hunting down al-Qaeda cells over the past 14 months; at the same time,
they've adopted a strategy of trying to co-opt those in the prisons to
adopt a less radical approach and are using different religious
leaders to argue that al-Qaeda is against Islamic precepts. Leaders
who, in the 1990s were banned from preaching in Saudi Arabia, are now
back in the government's favor because they've moderated their beliefs
and language.
The King, and the Crown Prince, offer a bargain: you reform, and
there's a place for you; stay the radical course, and you'll follow
the fate of Abdul Aziz al-Muqrin.
The problem is sometimes this strategy doesn't work. Al-Muqrin was in
a Saudi jail and set free because the authorities thought he had
moderated his ways.
Washington, D.C.: I do not
understand after all that has transpired in the Middle East, why so
many Americans (30 million reported) still live and work in that
region. Why aren't they taking the warning to leave seriously? The
money they are making over there cannot be more important than their
lives or the well being of their families.
Why hasn't the president been more
proactive in trying to find and save these men's lives? Three brutal
and barbaric executions have been carried out. What more needs to
happen before the United States will do something? It's almost like
WWII .. it took Pearl Harbor to happen to wake the "Sleeping
Giant."
Rachel Bronson: The United
States is working very closely with the Saudi Arabian government to
try to roll up al-Qaeda cells. Even in the most recent case of Paul
Johnson, the CIA and FBI were in close cooperation with Saudi forces.
This is almost unprecedented. In 1995 and then in 1996 when there were
terrorist attacks in the Kingdom, the Saudi government made it very
difficult for Americans to try to figure out what happened. This is no
longer true; there's a stronger working relationship.
Last week, Prince Naif also mentioned, in a speech in the Kingdom,
that U.S. intelligence help would be accepted. This is very new for
him certainly.
There's also been a lot of technical assistance, and I'd imagine more
is coming.
As to why the 30 million are still there -- until recently, it
probably felt that these were limited instances of violence. For
people who've made their homes there, it's probably quite hard to
leave. But, what is for certain is that people are leaving, or if they
were planning to leave for the summer, it's unclear if they will come
back. Companies are shifting their headquarters to elsewhere in the
Gulf, and many Americans who were planning to go have cancelled their
trips.
Texas: In an earlier reply, you
implied that the Saudi government is basically more progressive than
the people it rules. That's pretty damn scary. Care to elaborate a
little?
Also, I read that bin Laden and al
Qaeda have significant support among ordinary Saudis? True? How much
support?
Sorry to sound alarmist, but when I
read things like this -- I have to wonder if maybe we really are
headed for a war of civilizations (if we're not there already). What
do you think?
Rachel Bronson: Different polls
have shown different things. Some show that support for bin Laden's
ideas are high; others show they're declining. One recent poll had the
interesting finding that while almost half the population supported
bin Laden's ideas, only 4% wanted a government inspired by him.
On my previous answer, given the Saudi political landscape, certain
members of the royal family tend to be viewed as the reformists. That
is, reformists in society line up behind them because they are viewed
as the answer. The National Dialogues that we've been witnessing
(debates over reform and Saudi identity) were sponsored by the Crown
Prince. However, there are some who are clearly even more reform
minded. Recently, a group of people called for Saudi Arabia to become
a constitutional monarchy, and they were thrown in jail for a short
period.
Austin, Tex.: Did somebody
mistype a number? Thirty million Americans living in the Gulf? Ten percent of the nation's population? (I'm not nitpicking. I would actually
like to know the real number. Three million?)
Rachel Bronson: The correct
answer is 30,000 -- my mistake. Thank you. The population of Saudi
Arabia is estimated at about 23 million, with about 5 million being
non-Saudi.
Alexandria, Va.: I find it
extremely suspicious that Saudi security could never find and deal
with Muqrin. Then hours after Paul Johnson is beheaded, Saudi security
tracks him down and kills him.
Did someone give him up or is the
House of Saud as duplicitous as I think?
Rachel Bronson: It seems that
if Saudi Arabia could have gotten al-Muqrin before, they would have.
He's responsible for many of the bombings that have put Saudi once
again under the international spotlight and are causing the expat
community to consider leaving.
More likely, they could have gotten a tip. After all, a massive
dragnet was under way, and information was bound to turn up.
Or, and this is pure speculation, but I'll share it -- they, the Saudi
government, could have had a go-between negotiating with al-Muqrin. It
may have been clear that if he was taken in, the order would have been
given to execute Johnson. As long as he was alive, they might have
believed they could negotiate Johnson's release. As soon as he was
executed they went and got him.
We'll have to wait for more details to emerge to know.
Ottawa, Canada: Do we feel that
within the Saudi royal family there are present both reformers and
those who favor the status quo? And, is this internal struggle the
main problem facing those in the West who have to deal with the
Saudis?
Rachel Bronson: There are three
ways to look at what's going on.
One, is that there's a split in the royal family. Michael Doran argued
this in a recent addition of Foreign Affairs.
Two, there is a split within each member of the royal family -- a
recognition of the need to reform but a concern that moving too fast
will upset the apple cart. Professor Greg Gause argued this in
response to Mike's piece in the next Foreign Affairs edition.
A third way is a bureaucratic politics explanation, the one I favor.
Crown Prince Abdullah, because he is the Crown Prince and now
basically in charge of Saudi Arabia's foreign policy, sees what needs
to be done to integrate Saudi Arabia into the global community. Prince
Naif, the Interior Minister, who has to deal with the mess if the
Crown Prince moves too fast, is much more reticent and perhaps willing
to cut more deals with the extremists. I see it this way because when
Crown Prince Abdullah was only the head of the National Guard
(performing an internal functions) he seemed to be more anti-American
and more willing to cut deals.
However, what is true, is that after the recent spate of attacks, the
royal family all seems to be singing more from the same page than
before, recognizing that this is first and foremost an attack against
them.
Burlington, Vt.: Good
afternoon.
How can the United States continue to
rely on advice on policy towards Saudi Arabia from ex-diplomats and
State Department folks who are given cushy retirement lives with Saudi
money? Have the Saudis bought off too many American stakeholders for
us ever to give them impartial advice?
Rachel Bronson: After an
enormous onslaught of negative stories on Saudi Arabia, it's hard to
see the evidence of Saudi Arabia buying everyone off. I think many in
the diplomatic community are more careful in their interpretations
because they've lived there and know how many changes have occurred
and also understand how complicated all of this is.
New York, N.Y.: What do you
think about terrorist allegations that the murderers who kidnapped and
beheaded Paul Johnson were helped by the Saudi police? Is there any
likelihood this could be true and could that explain how the
terrorists were themselves killed so quickly afterwards (to shut them
up)?
Rachel Bronson: There is a
question of to what extent has al-Qaeda infiltrated the Saudi royal
forces. It's certainly a question that the leadership is concerned
with, and I don't think has a good answer for. In my view, recent
events suggest a degree of incompetence or complicity, but I drew that
conclusion more from the hostage situation at al-Khobar than this
recent one. There seemed to be a full court press to spring Paul
Johnson. The Saudis have spent considerable time and money protecting
their oil infrastructure. They've given less attention to these kind
of attacks.
Washington, D.C.: Why does the
United States tolerate the dictatorship in Saudi Arabia?
Rachel Bronson: The United
States tolerates dictatorship in many places.
Why does it work so closely with Saudi
Arabia? It seems they're cracking down on terrorist financing, working
closely with the United States to round up local terrorists, were
helpful in the war in Iraq, proved to be a reliable source of energy
when the Venezuela strikes happened just before the war, and more
recently when they offered to put more oil onto the market in response
to high prices, etc.
Washington, D.C.: Rachel, could
you explain why the State Department suggests Americans leave Saudi
Arabia, but a few days ago, Secretary Powell said that Americans
shouldn't leave? It seems rather contradictory.
Rachel Bronson: No, I really
can't. It seems quite muddled.
Indianapolis, Ind.: I don't
understand why evidence connecting al Qaeda to Iraq should be more
compelling than evidence connecting al Qaeda to Saudi Arabia. I'm just
a citizen, so I have no clue what the correct response to these
connections should be; but, it seems the concern of our national
leaders about suspected terrorist activity in Iraq prior to our
invasion seems out of proportion to our understanding of terrorist
activity in Saudi Arabia. Do you have an opinion on this?
Rachel Bronson: I always
thought the Iraq-terrorism link to be the weakest argument for going
to war, and the recent 9/11 commission staff report backs up that
view. Weapons of mass destruction (WMD) was the overriding reason.
After that, there were a host of other efforts. I think they're
holding on so hard to the al-Qaeda-Iraq connection because WMD didn't
pan out and the post war environment is so violent.
Rachel Bronson: Thanks for your
questions. |