Crossroads
in US-Saudi Relations
Jean-Francois Seznec Interview |
|
SUSRIS:
Thank you for taking time to talk about US-Saudi
relations. Can we start with your appraisal of the status
of the relationship?
Jean-Francois Seznec:
There are days when I am extremely pro-Saudi, and other
days when I'm in between pro- and anti-Saudi. It's really
a love-hate, intellectual relationship on these issues.
| I
think on the U.S.-Saudi relationship, I'm
actually very pessimistic but not necessarily in
a violent manner. I think in many ways, our U.S.
intervention in Iraq and the policies of the
present administration, in particular on
Palestine and Israel, are really making us
totally irrelevant to the region.
There's
this whole idea, this sort of sacred cow of the
U.S.-Saudi relationship that there is oil for
security. It's mighty iconoclastic in a way, but
I feel that the Saudis don't care about our
providing security to them. That's been sort of
part of the deal, but at this point, my view is
that they feel they can handle their own
security themselves better, thank you very much.
|
..There's..
this.. sacred
cow of the U.S.-Saudi
relationship that there
is oil for security..
..my view is
that [the Saudis] feel
they can handle their
own security
themselves..
|
They are not
worried about Iran. I think they've made a deal with Iran.
Prince Abdullah made a deal with Iran some years back, and
they're working together on OPEC. That's helping and the
arrangements with Venezuela helps keep the price
relatively high, which is good for Saudi Arabia, good for
Iran, good for Venezuela. The market is very tight today,
despite Saudi efforts, and it will stay that way for the
near future anyway.
I think if the
Saudis were really worried about nuclear efforts in Iran,
they could make a deal with Pakistan to sort of be the bad
guy. Their only worry is Iraq. They are worried, and I
heard that from some very high officials in Saudi Arabia
in March. They are worried that our intervention in Iraq
has opened Pandora's Box, and it's going to make the
country totally fall apart whether we are there or not. If
it falls apart, it's going to create a lot of violence in
the region because they're afraid the Turks would take
over the Kurdish areas, and the Iranians would get
involved in Shia area of the south, although personally, I
doubt that. It would basically create a big upheaval in
the region, and the Saudis don't like that. But, they're
not worried about the Iraqis invading Saudi Arabia. I
don't think they really ever were worried about Saddam
Hussein controlling the oil markets through Kuwait. They
knew they could still control their own areas.
| I
think they view the U.S. presence in the region
as being very negative right now. So, my guess
is that the Saudis have decided to open up to
many other areas but not to the U.S. They are
closing down, shutting down the relationship
with the U.S.
The big
relations we had with them were through the
military for many years. That is of course going
to continue because we control the airplanes in
essence. We control the parts and so forth. My
guess is that they will continue to work with us
but in a declining fashion. The next big arms
contract will not take place with the United
States. They don't want the U.S. to keep
controlling the Saudi forces. It may be with
Europe. It may be with the Far East somewhere,
probably with Europe at this point because of
the technology.
|
..my
guess is that
the Saudis have
decided to open up
to many other areas
but not to the U.S.
They are closing down,
shutting down the
relationship with the U.S..
..The next big arms
contract will not take
place with the United
States..
|
Mostly, the
Saudis are making a big effort to open up their economy
towards China and towards the Far East in general, but
mostly China. That doesn't mean that China is going to
come in and defend Saudi Arabia. I don't think the Chinese
would even think of that. It means increases in the
economic links between China and Saudi Arabia, which are
growing by leaps and bounds. Saudi imports into China are
growing by over 40 to 50 percent per year. The Saudis are
selling tremendous amounts of petrochemicals, not only
oil, but petrochemicals and chemicals into China. That is
only growing and will grow further. The Saudis are
investing in China. There was just a
new deal signed by Aramco this month, a joint venture with
Exxon actually, and the Chinese to build a huge
complex in Fujian near Shanghai. I think that in a way,
the worst thing that could happen between the Saudis and
the U.S. has happened. Today, from the Saudi standpoint,
the U.S. is irrelevant. It's not negative. It's not
positive. It's irrelevant to what they want to do in the
future.
SUSRIS: In
what specific areas do you see that the relationship has
changed or is changing?
Jean-Francois Seznec:
I think in terms of economy, the level of imports into
Saudi Arabia has declined. This year, it is the same as
last year, but in 1998, the
U.S. exported over $10 billion worth of goods into Saudi
Arabia. Today, in 2003, it was about $4.6 billion. In
2004, it seems to be coming up a little bit, but the
dollar is very weak. So, it is to their interest to buy
stuff from the U.S. rather than from Europe at this point.
SUSRIS: Do
you see that the change in this relationship may have been
a temporary consequence of 9/11 that could be repaired?
Jean-Francois Seznec:
I think the Saudi leadership in particular is so upset at
all levels, whether it is the commoners, the ministers,
the technocrats, or the princes -- they are so upset about
what is happening against Saudi Arabia in this country,
the treatment of Saudi Arabia in Congress. I attended a
few of the meetings in Congress just to go there and look.
It's unbelievable what you hear from the neoconservatives
and from perfectly normal representatives in Congress who
have been briefed by various people on all the negative
sides of Saudi Arabia.
| I
went to one of the Hudson Institute meetings the
other day, and it was just crazy. The enemy was
Saudi Arabia, and we had to fight Saudi Arabia.
We should prepare invasions and so on. The
Saudis are aware of that, and it annoys them.
Quite honestly, it would annoy anyone. I would
be the last one to say that the Saudis are
saints. A lot of the criticism that is laid upon
the Saudis is based on reality. But to make
Saudi Arabia the bad guy that we have to destroy
is going too far, and it makes the Saudis very
worried. I think they have decided to gently but
surely cancel the relationship with the United
States. There will always have to be relations
because we will buy oil. Some of our companies
have very large investments, but it will be a
purely commercial transaction. |
..they
are so upset
about what is happening against Saudi Arabia in
this country..
..to make Saudi Arabia the
bad guy that we have
to destroy is going too
far, and it makes the
Saudis very worried.
I think they have decided
to gently but surely cancel
the relationship with
the United States..
|
SUSRIS: Has
official Washington having received this message? Are
people aware of it or ignoring it or are they blind to it?
Jean-Francois Seznec:
I think they know about it, and I think they have refused
to accept the reality of it. They are blind to it --
that's a good description of it. But, I think a lot of
people know it. A lot of experts on Saudi Arabia, there
are many in this country who know about these things, have
been passing the message on to the various arms of
government. But, it does not seem to go beyond a certain
level -- definitely in terms of policymaking I don't think
it has been heard or at least acted upon.
SUSRIS: How
would you describe cooperation between Saudi Arabia and
the United States in the war on terrorism? Critics of
Saudi Arabia, especially in Congress, say not enough has
been done, while the Bush Administration has given Saudi
Arabia high marks for cooperation. Which is it?
| Jean-Francois
Seznec:
I think there was a time when the Saudis were
not really cooperating on terrorism. They really
didn't see the need for it. They really didn't
feel it. They sort of knew it. But, after the
2003 bombings in Riyadh, all of a sudden, they
realized that this applied to them as well.
That's when, in my view anyway, that the
cooperation really started coming back and
increasing on terrorism.
There
had been a fair amount of cooperation already
against the financing of terrorism. The Central
Bank of Saudi Arabia had people working very
closely with the U.S. Treasury Department to try
to figure out how to work this out. It just so
happened that the amounts of money are so small
that it is very difficult to control.
|
There
had been a fair
amount of cooperation
already against the financing
of terrorism. The Central
Bank of Saudi Arabia had
people working very
closely with the U.S.
Treasury Department..
|
In Congress the
agenda is that it is very easy to criticize the Saudis.
Definitely, the Israeli lobby is trying to make sure that
we don't like Saudi Arabia because it's favorable in that
sense that if we hurt Saudi Arabia, it's not so bad for
Israel. I don't think it goes much beyond that.
They know it
costs nothing to criticize Saudi Arabia, but it makes
people feel good, and it shows that Congress people really
are eager to help the plight of women throughout the world
and to see that we are not so dependent on one source of
energy in the world.
I think it's a
mixed bag on why people in Congress don't like Saudi
Arabia. I think it's encouraged by the Israeli lobby and
by the neoconservatives here because they have their own
agenda on what it should be. Although, it's probably not
as all bad as we make it to be sometimes, but they take
advantage of it.
SUSRIS:
What will be the nature of the relationship between the
U.S. and Saudi Arabia after the November elections? Will
there be any changes in the dialogue or the issues?
| Jean-Francois
Seznec:
Well, nothing too good actually because, let's
face it, if we're talking just about the
Israeli-Palestinian issue, the Sharon government
is trying very hard to take advantage of the
political campaign to establish more facts on
the ground. They are trying to establish more
settlements. They are increasing the length of
the wall. They are taking all kinds of
unilateral actions, which we cannot oppose
because it's the political season where you
cannot oppose Israel. This is, in my view, going
to stay.
Whoever
is elected to power in November, I don't think
it will change the facts on the ground in
Israel, and therefore, that will only create and
increase these disagreements between the Saudis
and the U.S. I think what's going to happen is
that the Saudis are going to continue to try to
marginalize the U.S. influence on Saudi Arabia.
That's why I said earlier that I think our
policy has made us irrelevant in the region.
That's very sad.
|
Whoever
is elected to
power in November,
I don't think it will change
the facts on the ground in
Israel, and therefore, that
will only create and increase
these disagreements
between the Saudis and
the U.S.
|
SUSRIS:
What can Americans do to improve the situation? Do you
think the decision you described, about a change in the
relationship, is irreversible?
Jean-Francois Seznec:
Yes, I think they've reached a decision. It's just a
question of making a smooth transformation, so that it is
not too violent. They don't want the U.S. to invade Saudi
Arabia. So, the oil relationship will continue. The
relationship with some of the big U.S. firms, Exxon-Mobil
and so on, will continue because it is to the interest of
the Saudis. But, all other relations will be basically a
strictly diplomatic business point if view. They will not
treat us better than they treat Zimbabwe or Nepal. They
won't listen to us any better than they would listen to a
third party that has nothing to do with them.
If we really
started proving to the Saudis all of a sudden that we
really mean business in the region, I think that would
change things pretty drastically. If we made some real
strong movements to get peace in the Israeli-Palestinian
conflict based on the '67 borders, even if we forget about
the refuges from '48. If we really push that and pushed
Israel to do that, yes, I think they would say, "Yes,
the United States does have some power after all, and
maybe they really understand our point of view." If
the U.S. could really somehow find some satisfactory
settlement in Iraq, and that's a very difficult situation
at this point, I think they would like that very much too.
I think then they would start opening up to our diplomacy.
But, I don't see this happening on either side, and I
don't think they see it either. I think they are just
going to go their merry way.
SUSRIS:
Saudi Arabia has made efforts for Americans to learn more
about the Kingdom through public relations campaigns and
outreach programs. How do you see those being received by
the American public?
Jean-Francois Seznec:
I think the motivation, in my view, is very
straightforward. What they want is to create just enough
questioning of the public to know that any dangerous views
by the United States and the Administration upon Saudi
Arabia would be a mistake. I think the Saudis don't want
us to use any kind of excuse to invade the oil fields, to
put it this way.
| I
think the efforts are certainly good. They help,
but it's a drop in the bucket. The Saudis are
not an easy country to like. I personally love
Saudi Arabia, but it's very much an acquired
taste. There are very many things, which are
impossible to defend. They're not necessarily
improving a great deal.
On the
other hand, the Saudi Kingdom is developing like
crazy. Americans don't seem to know much about
that. The petrochemical industry is amazing.
It's one of the world's largest and growing by
leaps and bounds. The management of the oil and
the petrochemical industries is fabulous by any
standard. These things are not stories that are
told very much, even though Aramco is making a
big effort to sell that. They are to a certain
extent, among the specialists in particular,
quite successful. But, to the person on the
street or the average Congressman, it doesn't
mean anything.
|
..the
Saudi Kingdom
is developing like
crazy. Americans don't
seem to know much
about that.. ..The
management of the
oil and the petrochemical
industries is fabulous
by any standard. These
things are not stories
that are told very much..
|
SUSRIS: Do
you see the advancements made in economic reform and in
political reform, such as the introduction of the Majlis
-- those things that weren't around 10 years or so ago --
making a difference in outside perceptions of Saudi
Arabia?
Jean-Francois Seznec:
Well, I heard somebody say yesterday at the [Arab-US
Policymakers] conference that the Majlis Ash-Shura is
now part of the International Parliamentary Organization.
Well, that does not say much for the International
Parliamentary Organization because the Majlis Ash-Shura is
fully, 100 percent appointed. It's only men, and of
course, it's only appointed with people who favorable to
the present government and mostly through the royal
family. It is not a credible body at this point.
| It
does talk, and the advantage of that is that you
have other people discussing issues. Nowadays,
they are given a little more leeway where they
can actually start actions on their own. They
don't have to wait for the government to bring
the laws. They are listened to.
Whatever
is said by the Majlis Ash-Shura is usually
listened to by Prince Abdullah and the rest of
the cabinet. That helps, but it can be destroyed
so easily in terms of credibility in people's
minds. In terms of democratic reform, it really
is a small step. In my view, it is a big step.
But, since your question is more about the
impact in the public here, I think the impact is
pretty small. I think in terms of the Saudi
public, it's a big impact, and it is making a
really big step in the right direction because
they are going to have municipal elections
starting in February next year, and the next
step would be to have elections to the Majlis
Ash-Shura. I think that will make a great deal
of difference.
|
..Whatever
is said by
the Majlis Ash-Shura
is usually listened to
by Prince Abdullah and
the rest of the cabinet..
..In my view, it is a big
step.. ..I think in terms
of the Saudi public, it's
a big impact, and it is
making a really big step
in the right direction..
|
SUSRIS:
What else should people know about reform in Saudi Arabia?
Jean-Francois Seznec:
One of the things that someone said at the [Arab-US
Policymakers] conference was the biggest difference
they saw between an assignment in Saudi Arabia in the '60s
and an assignment now was that there was so much more
freedom of the press. People were actually able to talk.
Now, that, I agree with. I lived in Saudi Arabia in the
mid-70's, and it is amazing the difference. It truly is.
But, it is still a fairly controlled press. The two major
pressrooms are owned by princes. Definitely, they would
not take an anti-royal family stance, for instance.
| On
the other hand, the major princes who own these
pressrooms are considered to be liberals in the
region, at least in Saudi Arabia. That is good
in the sense that we would imagine that the
liberals would be going for more opening and
liberalization and more power to the women, and
so on. And, they are. So, these press groups are
pushing that quite a lot. From our point of view
that is excellent. Nevertheless, it is not
necessarily coming from the heart, so to speak.
There is a political angle to certain factions
in the country of trying to push this agenda.
Now, these factions have lost a lot of power
since March because other groups wanted to start
controlling things more. So, I think we have to
view this in perspective. |
But,
the progress
has been absolutely
tremendous. You
can't go back on it.
|
But, the progress
has been absolutely tremendous. You can't go back on it.
It's not as if you could go back all of a sudden to the
old days and have a press where articles the government
doesn't like are cut out -- where you get a newspaper and
you could actually read through it. No, those days are
gone.
| People
have satellite dishes. They get the news from
Al-Jazeera, but they also get their news from
everywhere in the world. They get more news in
Saudi Arabia than we do here. I mean, it's
unbelievable. They get Chinese news in English.
You name it, they have it -- a lot of it, we
don't have.
In many
ways, the Saudis are better informed than we
are. It would be a little crazy, if you like,
for the Saudi press to sort of not at least have
some relevance, otherwise they wouldn't sell
their stuff. But, the press is very successful.
People read the papers in Saudi Arabia. So, I
think in that sense that yes, there has been
progress. They can make hay out of that here. In
fact their editors come here and talk at a lot
of universities to explain that, and rightly so.
I think that is a very positive issue.
|
..They
get more news
in Saudi Arabia than
we do here. I mean,
it's unbelievable..
..In many ways, the
Saudis are better
informed than we are..
..I think in that sense
that yes, there has
been progress..
|
SUSRIS:
There is increasing talk about the U.S. having to do
something about the nuclear issue in Iran. When it came to
war in Iraq, Saudi Arabia was a "steadfast" ally
of the United States, according to Ambassador Robert
Jordan. He told us last month American lives were saved
because of Saudi Arabia. How does that experience fit into
the Iran scenario?
Jean-Francois Seznec:
The build-up against Iran today in this country reminds me
very much of the build-up against Iraq here almost two
years before we went to war against Iraq. So, there is a
certain parallel here, and that is a very dangerous
parallel. But, I think the Saudis would not be happy if we
intervened in Iran at all -- first of all because they
would feel quite surrounded between having 150,000 troops
in Iraq and many hundreds of thousands of troops in Iran
and a very violent region at this point.
| I
think the Saudis would like to handle Iran on
their own. I think they feel they probably can
by either buying off Iran through OPEC or what
not or putting some pressure on Iran through
Pakistan, which is also a nuclear power and much
more advanced than Iran on these matters. I
think they feel they could handle it on their
own, but that's my personal opinion. I have no
facts to back that up. It's just an opinion. I
think the Saudis would be quite upset if we
actually went into Iran, so I'm not sure if they
would help us at all. |
..I
think the Saudis
would like to handle
Iran on their own..
..I think the Saudis
would be quite upset
if we actually went
into Iran, so I'm not
sure if they would
help us at all..
|
SUSRIS:
What do you see as the greatest misunderstandings among
Americans about Saudi Arabia?
Jean-Francois Seznec:
I think there is a misunderstanding in this country
about what .. well we have sort of dehumanized the Saudis.
We talk about Saudi Arabia and the princes and the
corruption and all this and all that, and that they are
terrorists.
| What
most people have really not ever seen -- I think
it's always been like that, but since it's so
important nowadays it's coming forth -- that
most of the Saudis are perfectly normal people.
That the families want to earn a living. That
they want their children to go to decent
schools. They want to have decent housing. They
have very strong opinions about who should be in
control of the country or not be in control of
the country. They have strong views about
international affairs like everyone else. That
these people are really human.
Okay,
they may have very strong religious opinions for
a lot of people but not more than many of us
here. Frankly, I think that has been the key
issue is the lack of, from our standpoint, is
the dehumanization of a lot of Arabs but in
particular of the Saudi Arabians.
|
..I
think that has been
the key issue.. ..from
our standpoint, is the
dehumanization of a
lot of Arabs but in
particular of the Saudi
Arabians.. ..I think we
have forgotten that
people are people..
|
Forgetting that
there are probably 17 million Saudis who need to earn a
living like us everyday and who have their problems and
they have to solve them. They are much more interested in
doing that and finding jobs than going out and blowing up
airplanes or whatever. I think we forgot that. Saudis do
feel that they have to work for their own interests, not
for the interest of the United States. It's a mixed bag,
but I think we have forgotten that people are people.
SUSRIS: Well,
thank you very much for taking time today to talk with us.
Jean-Francois Seznec:
My pleasure, really.
| ABOUT
JEAN-FRANCOIS SEZNEC |
![Jean-Francois Seznec [Photo: Ryan & Associates]](https://www.saudi-us-relations.org/images/Interviews/2004_10_08_Seznec2.jpg) Jean-Francois Seznec teaches political economy of the
Persian Gulf at Georgetown
and Columbia universities. He lived and worked in the Gulf
for more than a decade and visited Saudi Arabia earlier
this year. Professor Seznec has shared his insights on
Gulf affairs in numerous articles and television and radio
appearances, including CNN, C-Span and PBS. He is
author of The
Financial Markets of the Arabian Gulf.
Professor Seznec's e-seminar
"Oil in the Arab-Persian Gulf" is available
through the Columbia University Web site.
|
![Jean-François Seznec [Photo: Ryan & Associates]](https://www.saudi-us-relations.org/images/Interviews/2004_10_08_Seznec1.jpg)