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Introduction
As the presidential election season comes to a close, foreign
policy, national security and especially the war on terror are
central issues for each candidate. The Middle East, and Saudi
Arabia in particular, have become hot button issues in the final
weeks of the campaign. Both President George W. Bush and Sen. John
Kerry have addressed the Middle East in campaign speeches and
declared policy positions.
Today, the SUSRIS will present the
candidates' positions revealing the differences between John Kerry and George
Bush on how they say they will approach the Middle East and the
U.S.-Saudi relationship in the next four years. The
candidates statements on U.S. energy policy -- which entered the
debate on U.S.-Saudi relations during the campaign -- are discussed
as well.
This presentation should not be interpreted as an endorsement
of either candidate.
George W. Bush on the
Middle East
Over the past year, the Bush administration has prepared a
comprehensive political and economic reform initiative aimed at
promoting democracy in the Middle East. Taken as a whole, this
plan is referred to as the Greater Middle East Initiative (GMEI).
President Bush presented this proposal in November 2003 during
a speech given at the National Endowment for Democracy in
Washington, D.C. He discussed America's commitment to democracy
worldwide then narrowed his focus to the Middle East in
particular.
"Sixty years of Western nations excusing and accommodating
the lack of freedom in the Middle East did nothing to make us safe
-- because in the long run, stability cannot be purchased at the
expense of liberty," said President Bush. "As long as
the Middle East remains a place where freedom does not flourish,
it will remain a place of stagnation, resentment, and violence
ready for export. And with the spread of weapons that can bring
catastrophic harm to our country and to our friends, it would be
reckless to accept the status quo.
"Therefore, the United States has adopted a new policy, a
forward strategy of freedom in the Middle East," continued
President Bush. "This strategy requires the same persistence
and energy and idealism we have shown before. And it will yield
the same results. As in Europe, as in Asia, as in every region of
the world, the advance of freedom leads to peace."
Although details of the Greater Middle East Initiative remain
vague, two preexisting programs -- the Middle East Partnership
Initiative and the Middle East Free Trade Initiative -- are
components of the GMEI that are already at work.
The
Middle East Partnership Initiative (MEPI) is a program supervised
under the U.S. State Department. MEPI was founded to support
economic, political and education reform efforts in the Middle
East. This initiative incorporates the use of global private
sector businesses and non-governmental organizations. MEPI is the
administration's primary diplomatic policy and program development
tool to support the new U.S. policy of a "forward strategy of
freedom in the Middle East."
MEPI's economic focus is to improve region-wide economic and
employment growth driven by private sector expansion and
entrepreneurship. In the political realm, MEPI supports democratic
participation in the political process, where people have a choice
in governance, and there is respect for the rule of law. MEPI also
supports programs that promote full and equal opportunities for
women in society.
The Middle East Free Trade Initiative is another component of
the Greater Middle East proposal. This trade initiative aims to
help reforming countries become members of the World Trade
Organization. The trade initiative also seeks to negotiate
bilateral investment treaties and trade and investment framework
agreements with governments determined to improve their trade and
investment regimes.
George W. Bush on Energy
Independence
In
the final weeks of the campaign, President Bush has stepped up his
rhetoric about easing American dependence on foreign energy
sources, which would directly include the Middle East.
At an event in Brecksville-Broadview, Ohio on September 4 he
said, "Congress will get an energy plan to my desk that
encourages conservation, that encourages the use of renewables,
such as ethanol, biodiesel; that explores for ways to make sure
that we use technology to leapfrog the current problems we have
like hydrogen-powered automobiles, that works on clean coal
technology; that says we'll explore for natural gas in
environmentally friendly ways. It's a plan, though, that
recognizes that we must become less dependent on foreign sources
of energy if we want to keep jobs here in America."
President Bush's plan for energy independence, as outlined on
his campaign Web site (www.georgewbush.com), seeks to increase
domestic energy exploration and production and promote
conservation. One of President Bush's key points is to
"promote environmentally sound domestic oil production in
just one percent of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, which
could provide up to one million barrels of oil a day for nearly 20
years."
Another part of President Bush's plan is to improve vehicle
fuel economy. He plans to "foster development of new
technologies, provide a $4,000 tax credit to purchase hybrid
gasoline-electric and other fuel efficient vehicles, and improve
the Corporate Average Fuel Economy program to increase fuel
economy in a way that saves lives and American jobs."
However, many experts and analysts agree that such campaign
talk about energy independence from foreign sources is an
unrealistic goal. Paul Roberts, author of the book The End to
Oil, said in USA Today on October 24, "You need to
understand that when they discuss energy independence, it's a
rhetorical gimmick.
"It sounds good, but the truth is there is no such thing
as energy independence for a country that uses as much oil as we
do in the United States. They've been saying it since Nixon's
time. You have to say it. It's like mom and apple pie," said
Roberts.
This analysis may be correct. According to the Energy
Information Administration of the U.S. Energy Department, in 2003,
the United States only produced 5.7 million barrels of crude oil
per day, while it imported 9.7 million barrels per day. Of that
number, the top U.S. crude oil supplier is Saudi Arabia with 1.7
million barrels per day. The U.S. depends on imports for 56% of
its petroleum needs. (Click
for more data)
George W. Bush on
U.S.-Saudi Relations
President Bush has been a vocal supporter of Saudi Arabia's
efforts in fighting the war on terror and in the Kingdom's
progress in the area of political reform. He and members of his
administration have affirmed that Saudi Arabia has been
effectively going after militants and extremists in its own
country following a series of terrorist attacks within the
Kingdom. They have also commented positively on the announcement
that the Kingdom plans to hold the first of its municipal
elections in February 2005.
"Three
years ago, terrorists were well-established in Saudi Arabia,"
said President Bush in remarks given at Oak Ridge National
Laboratory on July 12. "Inside that country, fundraisers and
other facilitators gave al Qaeda financial and logistical help,
with little scrutiny or opposition. Today, after the attacks in
Riyadh and elsewhere, the Saudi government knows that al Qaeda is
its enemy. Saudi Arabia is working hard to shut down the
facilitators and financial supporters of terrorism. The government
has captured or killed many first-tier leaders of the al Qaeda
organization in Saudi Arabia -- including one last week. Today,
because Saudi Arabia has seen the danger and has joined the war on
terror, the American people are safer."
In November 2003, President Bush praised Saudi Arabia's
commitment to political reform at the 20th anniversary of the
National Endowment for Democracy when he said, "The Saudi
government is taking first steps toward reform, including a plan
for gradual introduction of elections. By giving the Saudi people
a greater role in their own society, the Saudi government can
demonstrate true leadership in the region."
President Bush has remained a supporter of Saudi Arabia's
progress despite recent attacks and innuendos that the president
is too closely associated to the Saudi royal family. These attacks
on the Bush family's relationship with Saudi Arabia has been the
subject of books, such as House of Bush, House of Saud by
Craig Unger, and the film Fahrenheit 9/11 by film director
Michael Moore.
Rachel Bronson, a senior fellow and director of Middle East
Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, said in a July 6
Slate
article that, "The Saudis have been close friends of many
Republican administrations. The Republicans, after all, are a
party of big business, and oil is a heck of a big business.. ..In
the 1980s, Saudi Arabia had extraordinarily good relations with
the Reagan administration. Saudi Arabia has been closely involved
with U.S. politics for decades."
The recent publication of the 9/11 Commission's final report
has put to rest many of the rumors and mistruths that fueled
attacks against President Bush and the U.S.-Saudi relationship.
Thomas Lippman, author of Inside the Mirage: America's Fragile
Partnership with Saudi Arabia, said in an August 13 interview
with the Saudi-U.S. Relations Information Service,
"..Probably the single most beneficial thing that has
happened to this [U.S.-Saudi] relationship in some time -- was the
publication of the 9/11 report. You can now stand there with the
9/11 report in your hand and say, 'The Saudi Arabian government is
not financing or promoting acts of terrorism against the United
States. And, by the way, George Bush didn't sneak murderous
criminals out of the country through closed airspace after 9/11 to
the profit of the Carlyle Group.' The 9/11 Commission report has
helped to set the record straight."
The claims that President Bush and the Saudi royal family are
inappropriately too cozy were challenged by former American
Ambassador to Saudi Arabia Chas Freeman, who told SUSRIS on
October 26, "Even if critics don't take as extreme a line as
Michael Moore in Fahrenheit 9/11, there are those who hold
to the position that Bush is in bed with Bandar and Prince Bandar
and the Saudi royal family call the shots in the U.S.-Saudi
relationship. This is a ludicrous parody of reality and has no
credibility at all with anyone who knows anything."
Prognosis
The prospects are good for a second Bush administration's
government-to-government relationship with Saudi Arabia. In April
2002, President Bush hosted Crown Prince Abdullah at his ranch in
Crawford, Texas. In remarks after the meeting, he responded to a
question by noting, "Well, first of all, one of the really
positive things out of this meeting was the fact that the Crown
Prince and I established a strong personal bond. We spent a lot of
time alone, discussing our respective visions, talking about our
families. I was most interested in learning about how he thought
about things. I'm convinced that the stronger our personal bond
is, the more likely it is relations between our countries will be
strong."
However, the strains in the U.S.-Saudi relationship overall are
apparent and will require the attention by whichever candidate
wins the presidency. As Ambassador Freeman told SUSRIS last week:
There's a great deal of suspicion by Americans of the
Saudi royal family, a lack of understanding of Saudi society and a
fundamental misunderstandings of Islam..
..After the election,
whoever wins is going to have to govern. And whoever governs is
going to have to deal with the interests I mentioned. This means
energy security in which Saudi Arabia is an important factor; a
relationship with the Islamic world in which Saudi Arabia plays a
key role; the management of security issues in the Persian Gulf
and adjacent regions in which again Saudi Arabia is a key; and of
course the question of cooperation against terrorists, many of
whom focus their attention on Saudi Arabia as much as, or even
more than they do on the United States..
..There is a real danger,
given the negative trends that I've outlined, that if there is not
intelligent intervention by the new administration in the United
States, whoever leads it after November 2, that is some sort of
effort made to sit down with Crown Prince Abdullah and with his
brothers to reassess and redefine the relationship along all of
the axes that I have discussed, that the relationship will in fact
drift permanently into a mutually disadvantageous mode.
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