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EDITOR'S NOTE:
In the prologue of Inside
the Mirage: America's Fragile Partnership with Saudi Arabia Thomas
Lippman writes of Americans' familiarity with Saudi Arabians:
| "Americans
did not enter the Kingdom at gunpoint and they were not seeking
religious converts. They entered with the assent and the high
hopes of the monarch, and they were committed to respect the society
over which he ruled and the traditions of his people.
"Now
seventy years later .. hundreds of thousands of Americans have
worked and lived in Saudi Arabia. For those who are there today,
the full array of worldly creature comforts is available; yet there is
less sharing of the indigenous experience than there was in the early
years because Americans are no longer dependent on the locals for
camel transport, native food, or navigational guidance. Nobody
needs to share a kerosene-lighted tent in the desert with armed
bedouin, as the early geologists did all the time. Even in the
earliest days of enforced desert intimacy, there were secrets of tribe
and family to which Americans were not going to be privy; but the
shared experiences of exploration, discovery, and mutual dependence
created a closeness now hard to match.
"As
Saudi Arabia evolved into a country of air conditioning,
superhighways, up-to-date medicine, and English-speaking engineers, it
became harder for Americans to understand, let alone accept, that the
Saudis still have a completely different and often unfathomable decision-making
process.. ..The Saudis have become fully modern in the physical sense
without opening the doors to the inner sanctum of their lives.
And they have learned much more about Americans than Americans have
learned about them." |
Understanding the breadth and depth of the
U.S.-Saudi relationship -- given the current complexities and strains
characterizing the issues that unite and divide Americans and Saudis -- is no
less a challenge than that which Lippman calls "opening the doors of the
inner sanctum." With that in mind, we were recently very pleased to
have a conversation with him about the current state of the
relationship. We hope you will find it as informative and insightful as
we did.
U.S.-Saudi Relations: A Glass Half Empty, Or Half
Full?
An Interview With Thomas Lippman
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SUSRIS: Many observers of the
health of US-Saudi relations are drawing pessimistic conclusions about the
state of the relationship. What is your assessment?
Lippman: Well, over the past
few months, I've been at many sessions on Saudi Arabia - think tanks, a war
college, all kinds of places around town -- even in mid-August this is going
on, unusual in Washington. And you can really do the glass half empty, half
full thing.
| If you were so
inclined, you can draw a relatively negative picture of the situation
in Saudi Arabia and of the relationship between Saudi Arabia and the
United States. You would talk about how the Saudi security forces are
winning the battle but losing the long-term war. You would talk about
the decline in commercial travel between the two countries, the
decline in student visas and the number of Saudis who don't vacation
here anymore - you know the whole argument. You would say that while
government-to-government relations remain pretty solid, there's very
wide discontent with the United States in the Saudi population in
general. The images from Iraq and Gaza don't help. I'm sure you
wouldn't be surprised by somebody who would sketch out all of these
relatively negative things that are going on. |
|
..you
can draw a
relatively negative
picture of the situation in
Saudi Arabia and of the
relationship between
Saudi Arabia and the
United States.. |
|
|
|
..On
the other hand..
despite all the bad things
that have happened,
the bilateral relationship
remains pretty strong..
you could make
an upbeat case as well. |
|
On the other hand,
with equal credibility you can say that Saudi Arabia is now clearly a
dynamic society. There's more open debate. The Saudis have gotten the
message about the need to crackdown. There's been substantial
curriculum reform. There are more channels for political openness. The
Saudis are working with the outside world. People have more
information. And, despite all the bad things that have happened, the
bilateral relationship remains pretty strong. I mean, you could make
an upbeat case as well. |
SUSRIS: Who's right?
Lippman: I don't think we're
going to know that for 10 years. There are too many things we don't know.
 We
don't know what kind of state is going to emerge in Iraq. It could be a source
of real trouble for Saudi Arabia if you get a Shiite theocracy, let's say. We
don't know the outcome of this long struggle between reform and reaction in
Iran; and, whether the Iranians are going to go nuclear and throw their weight
all around the Gulf. We don't know what's going to happen in the succession of
the Saudi monarchy. For that matter, we don't know what is going to happen to
oil prices. There are too many things we don't know in the short-term.
We don't know whether the death of
Al-Muqrin was a decisive moment in the battle against terrorism in Saudi
Arabia.  We
don't know how many recruits are in the pipeline. So, there's a lot we don't
know. I happen to believe the domestic murderers and bombers, who were lead by
Al-Muqrin, are not going to prevail in Saudi Arabia because they have no
political program. They don't offer any program that appeals to the Saudi
people. Even those who are most discontented with the monarchy and
disenchanted with the United States don't want to live in the kind of
Taliban-state that these zealots would impose. Therefore, they won't prevail.
SUSRIS: There seems to be some
evidence that the reaction of average people in the Kingdom to Al-Qaeda's
tactics, especially when women, children and Muslims were attacked, was one of
outrage.
Lippman: Yes, I think that's
correct. When people like [Safar]
Hawali and [Salman] Al-Ouda came out with public statements - they're no
friends of the monarchy - when they came out with public statements saying
this is contrary to Islam and contrary to Arab tradition, I think that
represented something.
| I wrote a
piece in the Washington Post in June saying that for all the
troubles, the country is not in a revolutionary state; we're not
talking regime change here. Serious people are doing serious work.
There's a lot of creative and constructive thought being given to the
future of the country. I don't necessarily believe that all is gloom
and doom, but I do think we are in a period of very negative
relations, very negative developments in the relationship between the
United States and Saudi Arabia. And, that a good bit of it is our
fault. There are things that can be done to improve it. |
..we
are in a period of
very negative relations,
very negative developments
in the relationship between
the United States and Saudi
Arabia. And, that a good bit
of it is our fault. There are
things that can be done
to improve it. |
SUSRIS: What is shaping
attitudes about the relationship?
Lippman: It's been open season
on Saudi Arabia. Take the Michael Moore movie. It's really over the top in its
attitude about the Saudis - that the Saudis were all howling savages with
scimitars between their teeth, out to behead Americans, and that any dealings
with them are automatically corrupt, suspect and contrary to American
interests.
|
"..we've
been your friends
for 60 years.
Why do you do us like this?" |
|
You know, Saudis
read about these things. They see videos. They talk to people. They
watch Al-Jazeera, which broadcasts about this stuff. They're sensitive
people. I sympathize with their feeling that "Jeez, we've been
your friends for 60 years. Why do you do us like this?" That's
not to say there aren't some in Saudi Arabia who wish us ill;
obviously there are. There are a lot of people in Saudi Arabia we
would be very unhappy to see come to power or achieve positions of
responsibility. But, that doesn't justify what's been going on. |
Chas Freeman, a former ambassador to
Saudi Arabia, is very outspoken on the subject of Saudi business people who
don't come here; American businesses moving their regional offices out of the
kingdom; a decline in service contracts - the things that Americans used to
do, such as operating hospitals and things like that. In his view, the new
generation of Saudis, the ones who are in their mid-twenties and younger
today, didn't grow up in a society of gratitude and appreciation for the
United States that their parents and grandparents did.
SUSRIS: The generation growing
up with the worst possible televised images of Americans?
| Lippman: Exactly,
and so to the extent of now that we turn our backs to them and shut
them out, rather than cultivating them, we only make things worse. So,
there's a lot going on that I'm not pleased with. But, I'm not a gloom
and doom guy. I think there's serious work to be done by the Saudis
and by the Americans that's not getting done.
What I don't see is the
person in the U.S. government today who's really willing to step up
and say "Look, this is a long-term, valued, important
relationship. And, we need to get it back on track." |
What
I don't see is the
person in the U.S. government
today who's really willing to
step up and say "Look, this
is a long-term, valued,
important relationship. And,
we need to get it back on track." |
You know, I was just reading National
Archive documents from the early, post-war period. There were career people
who were willing to stand up and challenge President Truman over the issue of
Palestine and put their careers on the line because they saw the long-term
value of the relationship with Saudi Arabia. I don't see that happening today.
SUSRIS: Just this month a
group, including former ambassadors and analysts, who have spoken positively
about US-Saudi relations were charged by Daniel Pipes in the New York Sun with
being part of a "covert Saudi campaign." Do you think there's a
connection between the vitriolic bashing of Saudi Arabia and silence on the
part of people who would defend the importance of the relationship?
Lippman: Well, you know, look
- having been personally trashed at some length in Stephen Schwartz's book, I
understand that to even enter into a polite conversation with the Saudis on
their turf is to expose yourself to people like Daniel Pipes.
 I
would say balancing that -- and probably the single most beneficial thing that
has happened to this relationship in some time -- was the publication of the
9/11 report. You can now stand there with the 9/11 report in your hand and
say, "The Saudi Arabian government is not financing or promoting acts of
terrorism against the United States. And, by the way, George Bush didn't sneak
murderous criminals out of the country through closed airspace after 9/11 to
the profit of the Carlyle Group." The 9/11 Commission report has helped
to set the record straight.
Once again, the Saudis do have a lot
to answer for in the relationship. To some extent, on some issues, they need
new leadership or a new way of doing business, which they are just beginning
to come to grips with. And yet, if we're going to allow our relationship with
Saudi Arabia to deteriorate, we should do so for good reasons, not for bad
reasons, which I think is what's happening.
 SUSRIS:
In May you toured the Kingdom with a group and talked
to Arab News at the end of the trip. Of your conversations with Saudis
about the relationship you said, "People are discouraged more than angry,
because they don't see where the upturn is going to come from." What
about attitudes in the US? How do Americans' opinions of Saudi Arabia square
with reality as you see it?
Lippman: In some ways it's
worse than it's ever been. For a long time, people thought of the Saudis, if
they thought of them at all, as rich guys with oil, who were hostile to
Israel, and it didn't go much beyond that. But now, there's this kind of
visceral antipathy that's been stirred up by people who really don't know what
they're  talking about or being stoked by people who don't really know much.
I
would like to see more people in the leadership in this country step up and
try to come to grips with this. Since Abdullah went to Crawford, I'm really
surprised at how little we've heard from the U.S. government about the
importance of this relationship.
SUSRIS: President Bush and
Secretary Powell have repeatedly commented on the strength of the partnership.
Aren't they saying the right things?
|
..who
in the U.S. government
is in charge of Saudi Arabian
policy.. ..good luck. Call me as
soon as you find out..
..There is no coherence as
far as I can tell.. |
|
Lippman: They
do, but they're not actually working on it. You know, I got a call a
few months ago from some young woman, a student. She's working on a
paper and she's trying to find out who in the U.S. government is in
charge of Saudi Arabian policy. She was very frustrated that she had
spent months trying to find out.
SUSRIS: Good question. |
Lippman: I said good luck.
Call me as soon as you find out. Because what's happened now is that the
policy has been allowed to be fragmented so that there's one policy having to
do with the Palestinians and Middle East peace; there's one having to do with
oil; there's one having to do with Iraq; there's one having to do with
terrorism. There is no coherence as far as I can tell.
SUSRIS: Does the same level of
interagency competition between the Pentagon and Foggy Bottom over policy in
Iraq show up in our relationship with Saudi Arabia?
Lippman: I think so. In some
ways, Ambassador Freeman is much more negative than I am on US policy. He
startled people at a briefing the other day when we were talking about
terrorism in the Kingdom and the death of Al-Muqrin. Freeman said, "Well,
at least the Saudis seem to be killing more terrorists than they create, unlike
us."
SUSRIS: Can I go over a few
more things here and get your reaction? The current oil situation - it's
"damned it you do, damned if you don't" for the Saudis. They get
blamed for the run-up in oil prices and when they increase production they're
charged with being in President Bush's pocket.
Lippman: I don't really see
how the Saudis can be blamed for the run-up in oil prices. There are a lot of
factors agitating the oil market and driving the prices up. You have
insurgency in Iraq, skyrocketing demand in China, uncertainty in Venezuela.
There's a lot going on, and oil prices rise when that happens. All
the Saudis did was announce they have the capacity to increase production and
would do so if necessary. What else are they supposed to do?
SUSRIS: Are these criticisms
getting worse because of presidential election politics? Senator Kerry says
Bush isn't "jawboning" his buddies enough.
Lippman: Yes, and Kerry's line
about how he wants our energy decisions made by Americans and not by the Saudi
Arabian royal family is ..
SUSRIS: Na�ve?
Lippman: No, I don't think
it's na�ve. I think it's deliberate.
SUSRIS: Yes, but it feeds the
perceptions of the na�ve listeners.
Lippman: Absolutely, no
question. Kerry keeps talking about our dependence on Mid-East oil.
We are dependent on imported oil, not
Middle East oil because there is no Middle East oil in the sense that there's
one global oil market and that the origin of any individual barrel is
irrelevant. We probably get more oil from Venezuela, Nigeria and Canada than
we do from the Middle East anyway.
To tell you the truth, I don't see
what's going to bring the price down substantially anytime soon. Remember the
last time we had a major sustained decline in the price of oil was because
industrial demand dropped during a worldwide recession. And, nobody wants
that. So, in that case, the demand is going to stay pretty high I think. And,
everyday you have a sort of exploding population of motor vehicles in China
and India, and they run on petroleum. I don't blame the Saudis for that
either.
SUSRIS: Shifting gears a
little bit, US elections are just a couple of months away. Do you have any
sense on how US-Saudi relations will play in the campaigns?
Lippman: A lot of it will
depend on the oil price question. There are people all over the country who
have 30-mile commutes for both adults in the family. There are farmers who
drive trucks to the market. They may really be hurting, and it may affect how
they vote. It's really hard to tell. But it's out there as an issue.
 I
would assume Kerry,
if elected, would drop the Saudi-bashing rhetoric and adopt a more reasonable
and farsighted view of the relationship with Saudi Arabia. I think he
knows better in terms of real politics from all his years in the Senate. I
would certainly hope so.
There's one more thing to keep in
mind about oil prices and the relationship. What is the Euro worth against the
dollar today? $1.15? $1.20? Well, once again we're going through one of those
cycles where the Saudis are taking a 20% hit on every barrel of oil that they
sell because they price it all in dollars. They don't have to keep doing that.
SUSRIS: Let's talk about
elections of a different sort. How would you assess the run-up to municipal
elections in the Kingdom?
Lippman: I don't know if you
saw the recent stories in the Saudi press after the Saudi Press Agency
published the regulations for the election. They
were very detailed about the timing, what offices will be contested and voting
procedures. And, apparently, they've still left open the question of
whether women can vote. It's still ambiguous. I think we'll have to see.
![Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Fahd bin Abdulaziz chaired the regular weekly meeting of the Council of Ministers (like that shown here) on October 23, 2003. The cabinet issued directives for the restructuring of the municipalities sector, introducing election procedures for half of the members of each municipal council in order to secure greater participation of citizens in local affairs. The decision also gives a one-year grace period for the authorities concerned to finalize these procedures. For the Kingdom's major municipalities, the cities of Makkah, Madinah, Riyadh and Jeddah, and those in the provinces of Asir, Qasim, Jizan, Jouf, Tabuk, Hail, Baha, Najran, the Eastern Province and the Northern Border Province, the decision restructures the existing municipal hierarchy, and affects the rural assemblies that are linked to the municipalities under the regulations of the Ministry of Municipal and Rural Affairs. (Source: Saudi Arabian Embassy Web Site) [Photo: SPA]](https://www.saudi-us-relations.org/images/IOI/2004_08_23b.jpg) As
to what extent the Saudi population is going to care about this election
process I think it's instructive to look at an analysis
Phebe Marr had of Saudi elections that took place back in the 1950s. It
strongly suggested that people were immensely interested. The elections they
had in those days were hard fought contests with multiple candidates who
really went at it, and the voters turned out because it mattered. I have no
reason to doubt that that will be true again
Many of the Saudis who have been here
recently have said that this is part of this sort of painstakingly slow but
discernible political and social reform that the Saudis are undertaking
because it's a political, social and above all economic necessity.
I don't see how this can be bad. I'm
just fascinated to see how it works. It comes up in every discussion. You can
imagine the questions. "What happens if fundamentalists on the fringe
win?" I don't think they will. They haven't in Pakistan. Why would they
in Saudi Arabia? The electoral record in Pakistan shows that the really
extreme religious parties have never done well in the vote.
SUSRIS: Tom Lippman, thank you
for sharing your insights on Saudi Arabia.
Lippman: You're welcome.
[Telephone interview conducted August
13, 2004]
Related Items:
- A
Combustible Mix: Politics, Terror, Oil and the Future of the U.S.-Saudi
Relationship - Remarks on the U.S.-Saudi Relationship by Thomas W.
Lippman, transcript of remarks made at a Center for American Progress
symposium, reprinted in SUSRIS IOI, July 8, 2004
-
The
Crisis Within - In Saudi Arabia, Rebellion and Reform Seize Center Stage
on-line discussion with Thomas W. Lippman, The Washington Post,
June 13, 2004
-
"Outlook:
The Fall of the House of Saud?" by Thomas W. Lippman, The
Washington Post, June 14, 2004
-
"U.S.
Group Gets Positive View of Kingdom," Arab News, May 27,
2004
-
"Saudi
Arabian Elections," by Thomas W. Lippman, reprinted in SUSRIS IOI,
November 19, 2004
-
Thomas
Lippman - "Inside The Mirage" - US-Saudi Relations -- SAIS Panel,
School of Advanced International Studies, John Hopkins University forum on
"U.S.-Saudi
Relations" November 7, 2003
-
The
9/11 Commission Report: Final Report of the National Commission on
Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States
 Thomas
W. Lippman, is an adjunct scholar at the Middle East
Institute in Washington. In four years as the Washington Post's Middle
East bureau chief, three years as the Post's oil and energy reporter and a
decade as the newspaper's national security and diplomatic correspondent, he
traveled extensively to Saudi Arabia. He is the author of Inside
the Mirage: America's Fragile Partnership with Saudi Arabia, Madeleine
Albright and the New American Diplomacy, Understanding Islam, and Egypt
After Nasser. A writer and journalist specializing in U.S. foreign policy
and Middle Eastern affairs, he lives in Washington, DC. He has
recently returned from a week-long visit to the kingdom.
Inside
the Mirage: America's Fragile Partnership with Saudi Arabia
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