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Introduction
As the presidential election
season comes to a close, foreign policy, national security and
especially the war on terror are central issues for each
candidate. The Middle East, and Saudi Arabia in particular, have
become hot button issues in the final weeks of the campaign. Both
President George W. Bush and Sen. John Kerry have addressed the
Middle East in campaign speeches and declared policy positions.
Today, the SUSRIS will present the
candidates' positions revealing the differences between John Kerry
and George Bush on how they say they will approach the Middle East
and the U.S.-Saudi relationship in the next four years. The
candidates' statements on U.S. energy policy -- which entered the
debate on U.S.-Saudi relations during the campaign -- are discussed
as well.
This presentation should not be
interpreted as an endorsement of either candidate.
John Kerry on the Middle
East
Democratic challenger Sen. John
Kerry outlined a seven-part plan for fighting the war on terror,
which addresses the Middle East, and it is discussed on his
campaign Web site (www.johnkerry.com). His plan, entitled
"Defeating Global Terrorism," voices support for
democracies in the Arab and Muslim world. He also makes clear a
Kerry administration's approach to bilateral relations,
"While countries like Egypt and Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and
Uzbekistan, have at times helped us in the hunt for individual
terrorists, they have not always been good allies in turning back
the terrorists' cause.
"In
a Kerry Administration, America will be clear with the repressive
governments in the region that we expect to see them change, not
just for our sake but for their own survival. And, Kerry will
restore America's moral authority by leading by example and by
promoting respect for rule of law."
To accomplish his goal of support
for democracies in the Middle East, Sen. Kerry has proposed two
new initiatives. One is a major public diplomacy program to
"train a new generation of American scholars, diplomats,
military officers, and democracy builders who understand the Arab
and Muslim world, just as we built our knowledge of the Soviet
empire during the Cold War." Sen. Kerry also plans to invest
in academic programs, scholarships and exchanges with the Muslim
world to improve joint communication efforts.
Sen. Kerry's second initiative is
to convene a summit to increase mutual cooperation. Under his
administration, Sen. Kerry would "convene -- and attend -- a
summit with European partners and leaders from the Muslim world to
discuss how we can collectively work together to establish new
programs aimed at increasing mutual understanding, economic
growth, and the fight against terror."
Sen. John Kerry addresses the
Middle East in two more policy areas -- national security and
energy. On his campaign Web site, Sen. Kerry ties these two policy
areas together. His national security policy will be guided by
four imperatives:
-
Launch and lead a new era of
alliance
-
Modernize the world's most
powerful military to meet new threats
-
Deploy all that is in America's
arsenal
-
Free America from its dangerous
dependence on Mideast oil
John Kerry on Energy
Independence
Sen. Kerry's fourth imperative in
his national security policy --"Free America from its
dangerous dependence on Mideast oil" -- is where he ties
America's national security interests to its current energy
policy. This goal of independence from Mideast oil is further
explained on the Web site by the following statement: "To
secure our full independence and freedom, we must free America
from its dangerous dependence on Mideast oil. By tapping American
ingenuity, we can achieve that goal while growing our economy and
protecting our environment."
Sen. Kerry further elaborates this
point by stating on his Web site, "Today, we consume 2.5
million barrels of oil per day from the Middle East, where
instability has pushed prices to record highs. These soaring
energy costs are burdening middle-class families with higher gas
prices, and our dependence on Middle East oil is putting our
national security at risk."
The Kerry-Edwards' plan to create
an energy independent America includes the following proposals:
invest in new technologies and alternative fuels, create tax
incentives that help automakers produce more fuel efficient cars
and reward consumers who buy them, increase energy conservation
and to create clean, renewable sources of energy.
Nevertheless, Sen. Kerry's resolve
for energy independence from foreign sources of oil may be in
vain. According to Exxon Mobil Corp. chairman Lee Raymond in a
recent USA Today report, "We do not have the resource
base to be energy independent. We simply cannot avoid significant
reliance on oil and gas from the Middle East."
According to the Energy
Information Administration of the U.S. Energy Department, in 2003,
the United States consumed an average of 20 million barrels of oil
per day in total petroleum consumption. However, the United States
only produced 5.7 million barrels of crude oil per day. Crude oil
imports are required to make up the difference. The top U.S. crude
oil supplier is Saudi Arabia with 1.7 million barrels per day.
(Click
for more data)
John Kerry on U.S.-Saudi
Relations
In campaign speeches and other
venues, Sen. Kerry has been aggressive in promoting his belief
that America needs an energy policy independent of Middle Eastern
oil and has singled out Saudi Arabia in particular. He has also
questioned the Kingdom's commitment to combat the war on terror.
Saudi Arabia is home to one-fourth
of the world's proven oil reserves and is a key supplier of oil to
the United States. In 2003, Saudi Arabia supplied the United
States with 1.7 million barrels per day of crude oil, or 18%, of
U.S. crude oil imports for the year. Nevertheless, Sen. Kerry
envisions a future America independent of foreign oil and a new
direction for the U.S.-Saudi relationship.
In
a December 12, 2003 article in Forward magazine, Sen. Kerry
said, "Some may argue that the ties that bind us to Saudi
Arabia are inescapable, that our energy dependence on Middle
Eastern oil will never allow us to pressure the Saudi regime to
reform. I say that this is only true if we allow it to be.
"As president, I will not
stand by and allow America to be held hostage by Saudi oil. We can
unleash the spirit of American ingenuity to meet this challenge.
"I have a plan to reduce
America's dependence on oil by 2 million barrels a day -- about
the same amount we import from the Persian Gulf -- through
investment in clean energy technologies that will increase
efficiency and allow us to capitalize on domestic and renewable
sources of energy. No foreign government can embargo this type of
energy -- and no terrorist can seize control of it.
"Every day and every year we
delay, America will continue to pay a high price for our
over-reliance on foreign oil. We spend $20 billion annually on oil
imports from the Persian Gulf. Instead of indefinitely sending
that money to the Middle East, we should launch an energy strategy
to invest in the Midwest and in the rest of America, generating
new jobs and new technologies here at home. My energy plan will
create 500,000 new jobs, produce 20% of American energy from
renewable fuels by 2020, and finally end America's dependence on
foreign oil in 10 years.
"Our national security
requires that we do everything possible to ensure that Saudi
promises to join the fight in the war on terrorism are real.
Reforms must be genuine, not window dressing, and there needs to
be accountability. Our relationship must be frank and open."
In a May 27, 2004 foreign policy
speech in Seattle, Sen. Kerry questioned Saudi Arabia's commitment
in fighting the war on terror. Sen. Kerry said, "If we are
serious about energy independence, then we can finally be serious
about confronting the failure of Saudi Arabia to do all that it
can to stop financing and providing ideological support of al
Qaeda and other terrorist groups.
"We cannot continue this
administration's kid glove approach to the supply and laundering
of terrorist money. As president, I will impose tough financial
sanctions against nations or banks that engage in money laundering
and facilitating terror in this world, and we will take strong
steps against those who fail to act. I will launch a 'name and
shame' campaign against those that are financing terror, and if
they do not respond, they will be shut out of the U.S. financial
system.
"And the same goes for Saudi
sponsorship of clerics who promote the ideology of Islamic terror.
To put it simply, we will not do business as usual with any
country that does not demonstrate its full will to partner in this
struggle. They must all take concrete steps to stop their clerics
from fueling the fires of Islamic extremism."
Some observers see Sen. Kerry as
jumping on the Saudi-bashing bandwagon that has been gaining media
attention with a plethora of negative books on Saudi Arabia and
the Michael Moore film Fahrenheit 9/11, which vilified
President Bush's relationship with the Saudi royal family.
Allan Lichtman, political
scientist at American University in Washington, told Middle
East Online in a phone interview that Saudi Arabia has become
a "symbol" for crucial issues facing the United States.
Lichtman said Saudi Arabia is a symbol "most of all for oil,
which of course has a profound impact on the American economy;
number two terrorism, and is it, was it, a base for terrorists and
is it being cleaned up; number three women's rights and democratic
rights."
One of Sen. Kerry's latest
criticisms of Saudi Arabia came shortly after the closing of the
Republican National Convention. Sen. Kerry said, "Letting the
Saudi royal family control our energy costs makes you [President
Bush] unfit to lead this nation."
Saudi Arabia's response to Sen.
Kerry's criticism was summed up by Nail Al-Jubeir, Director of
Information at the Saudi Arabian Embassy in Washington D.C, in a
recent New York Times article, "Things will be said in
an election year, and we take it for what it is. These arguments
tend to be what you find on a bumper sticker."
Prognosis
Observers have noted that
candidate Kerry's rhetoric would have to give way to the realities
of international developments facing a President Kerry.
Among those who are concerned with
post-election reality is former Ambassador Chas Freeman, who
served in Riyadh during the 1991 Gulf War. On October 26, he told
SUSRIS, "..one of the most important things that both sides
need to be doing is to think about how to overcome the legacy of
the last three years and the negative campaign rhetoric that has
been voiced by Mr. Kerry and how to restore a more balanced
relationship."
In June, Ashraf Fahim writing in
Asia
Times presented a well reasoned analysis of Senator Kerry's
comments on Saudi Arabia. Fahim noted, "There is only one
problem with Kerry's strategy: he may actually win the election.
And on his first day in office, reality is going to take a hefty
bite out of his rhetoric as he grapples with the strategic
necessity of the longstanding U.S.-Saudi alliance and the
complexity of the situation inside the kingdom, which is presently
reeling from attacks on foreigners and its security services.
These realizations could force some embarrassing
backtracking."
In
a September SUSRIS
interview, former U.S. Ambassador to Saudi
Arabia, Robert Jordan, commented on Sen. Kerry's recent remarks,
"I think some of Senator Kerry's comments have been pretty
silly and just very short-sighted. I spent a couple of days with
him when he came out to Saudi Arabia and he was nothing but
complimentary of the Saudis at that time.. ..he turns around and
continues to demagogue the issue by now making Saudi Arabians seem
like the greatest demons in the world.. ..The fact of the matter is
Saudi Arabia is an important ally. It is an important player in
the world economic scene and strategically as well.. ..I think even John Kerry will
have to come to realize that and deal with the reality. There is
no way to reduce America's dependence on hydrocarbons at this
moment. The vast preponderance of hydrocarbons exists in Saudi
Arabia. Strategically they are located in an important part of the
world. In dealing with the Islamic extremist threat we need their
support -- with 1.3 billion Muslims in that regard.. ..I think Senator Kerry's
demagoguery will probably give way to common sense if he is
elected."
Ambassador
Freeman told SUSRIS, "After the election, whoever wins is
going to have to govern. And whoever governs is going to have to
deal with the interests I mentioned. This means energy security in
which Saudi Arabia is an important factor; a relationship with the
Islamic world in which Saudi Arabia plays a key role; the
management of security issues in the Persian Gulf and adjacent
regions in which again Saudi Arabia is a key; and of course the
question of cooperation against terrorists, many of whom focus
their attention on Saudi Arabia as much as, or even more than they
do on the United States."
Thomas Lippman, former Washington
Post Middle East bureau chief and author of Inside the
Mirage: America's Fragile Partnership with Saudi Arabia, told
SUSRIS in August, "I would assume Kerry, if elected, would
drop the Saudi-bashing rhetoric and adopt a more reasonable and
farsighted view of the relationship with Saudi Arabia. I think he
knows better in terms of real politics from all his years in the
Senate. I would certainly hope so."
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