Editor's Note:
At the end of the summer in 2004, after
about 15 months of Saudi Arabian security forces doing
battle with Al Qaeda militants in the Kingdom, Dr.
Gregory Gause writing in Foreign Affairs (Sep/Oct
2004), addressed a memo to King, then Crown Prince,
Abdullah with the subject, "Saving the Kingdom."
Professor Gause, a widely respected authority in Middle
East studies, outlined the challenges facing the defacto
ruler in his article titled, "How to Reform Saudi Arabia
Without Handing It to Extremists," and offered a
prescription to placate critics and strengthen the
regime. Among the suggested steps was that the Kingdom
"resist full-scale democratization," with this
accompanying discussion:
|
"Outside observers, some well meaning and some
Machiavellian, prescribe political liberalization as
the antidote to your domestic terrorist problem.
Don't take their word for it. An immediate move to
an elected parliament would do more harm than good.
Given their superior resources and organization,
Islamist activists would do very well in these
elections, which could complicate your security
strategy. Moreover, elections make the religious
establishment nervous, and with good reason.
Mainstream religious leaders know that elections
will end their monopoly on legitimate political
discourse in the kingdom. You need these leaders to
play their part in battling extremists; do not
alienate them on this issue.
"While fending off rapid democratization, you still
must prepare for more participatory politics down
the road. It will be important to reassure the Saudi
middle class that their desire for greater openness
will not be forgotten in the heat of the battle
against militants. You can do so by proceeding with
the municipal council elections scheduled for late
this year. Only half of the seats on these councils
will be elected. Go further. Move swiftly to fully
elected membership. Give the councils genuine power
on municipal issues and a real budget. If Islamist
ideologues dominate the councils, let their
constituents get a small taste of life under
extremist leadership. But be careful how you set up
the election system. Insist on single-member
districts, which encourage moderation by requiring
candidates to appeal to a majority of voters." |
With Dr. Gause's article -- one approach to the
balancing act that is reform in the Kingdom -- as background, we
offer for your consideration an article by Hassan M. Fattah,
writing for the New York Times from Jeddah, providing a
snapshot of political developments. [The complete Foreign
Affairs article and follow-on panel discussion of the
article are at SUSRIS links below]
After Saudis� First Steps, Efforts
for Reform Stall
By Hassan M. Fattah
JIDDA, Saudi Arabia � It was a scene to warm the heart
of any democrat. Here in this autocratic kingdom,
elected city councilmen vowed to stand up for poor
fishermen and ask the government to ensure that a large
section of seafront on which a new university is planned
be left accessible to local residents.
After an hour of vigorous discussion recently, Jidda�s
City Council actually passed a resolution calling for
the waterfront to remain open to the people.
But there was a catch: The resolution is nonbinding, its
wording will not be made public, and it is unlikely to
have any impact on the government�s plans.
Two years ago, largely at the urging of the Bush
administration, the first elections in Saudi history
were held for municipal councils in a small number of
cities, including Jidda, Riyadh and Mecca. Only men
could vote and only half the members were elected, but
still the elections were hailed as emblems of change.
Increasingly, however, the councils are being dismissed
as symbols of the opposite: political stagnation.
�We thought all you do is call for elections and you�re
done,� lamented Abdullah al-Otaibi, an advocate of
political change who gave up and moved to Dubai last
year to help open a research center. �Now we know things
won�t work that easily.�
There are many reasons that democratic change has been
put on the back burner, including an economic boom
fueled by high oil prices and a more aggressive regional
foreign policy, Saudi advocates of such change say.
�The curse of the oil money is that it has stopped all
reforms,� said Sulaiman al-Hattlan, editor in chief of
Forbes Arabia, based in Dubai, and a Saudi advocate.
�The more money you have, the more arrogant you become,
because you think you can implement anything your way.�
Over the past year, the government has cracked down on
advocates of change, placed restrictions on their
meetings and even scrapped some long-promised
initiatives. The city councils have proved powerless in
the face of Saudi Arabia�s ingrained governmental
bureaucracy and a decidedly vague mandate. According to
one council member, more than half the decisions made by
the councils have not been carried out. Most of the
others have been in support of the central government.
�The people in the councils want to make you think that
they�re working, but ultimately they are powerless,�
said Bassim Alim, a prominent Jidda lawyer and an
advocate of change. �The rest is all for show,� he said.
It was not supposed to be this way.
After 15 Saudis took part in the attacks of 9/11, and a
wave of terrorism hit the kingdom itself from 2004 to
2005, many Saudis argued that stifling political and
economic conditions here had turned Saudi Arabia into
fertile ground for extremism.
King Abdullah � at the time, the crown prince � set out
on a campaign for change, spearheading national
dialogues, beginning new programs and popularizing the
language of reform. The environment reinvigorated
campaigners throughout the country who began openly
calling for political change.
In 2005, the government held elections for new city
council bodies, allowing for half the 14 members of each
council to be elected by the local population and the
rest to be appointed by the government.
Some change has occurred. The country�s dreaded vice
police force has been forced to tone itself down, and
women have seen some of the most overbearing
restrictions on day-to-day life eased, though they are
still forbidden to do things most women take for
granted, like driving. King Abdullah has also put into
effect an important constitutional change that provides
for senior members of the royal family to elect a crown
prince from among candidates named by the next king.
Some laws pertaining to public gatherings and criminal
procedures were also changed, Mr. Alim said. The city
council elections, meanwhile, proved to be a symbolic
step that has encouraged more Saudis to step forward and
complain, council members say.
Still, many political reform efforts have slowed
considerably, if not come to a halt, advocates say. As
the fruits of high oil prices flooded the country�s
coffers and allowed the government to reassert its
position as a cradle-to-grave patron of its people, the
sense of crisis has ebbed and the impetus for many
changes has subsided, they say.
Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia�s newly assertive foreign
policy, focused on quelling the Middle East�s numerous
crises while responding to Iran�s encroachment into the
region, has focused Saudis� attention outside their
borders, further damping the impetus for change.
Advocates for political change also point to a
longstanding split within the royal family itself.
Matrouk al-Falleh, a prominent Saudi change advocate in
Riyadh, said he noticed the split after he and a group
of his compatriots presented King Abdullah, then the
crown prince, with a petition calling for a
constitutional monarchy in early 2003. The prince
encouraged the men, but two weeks later, Prince Naif,
Saudi Arabia�s mercurial interior minister, appeared to
squelch the discussion, noting in an interview with the
Kuwaiti newspaper Al Seyassa that the men had
�misunderstood Prince Abdullah.�
Mr. Falleh said: �The future of reform depends on the
senior princes and how they deal with matters of state.
As the older generation dies out and the number of newer
princes and princesses grows, I see a diminishing cake
for them to share. This will lead to further conflict
over power and money in the near future.�
In addition to all the internal dynamics, waning
attention from the Bush administration for
democratization has further damped interest in
Western-style political change.
Many Saudis have abandoned the change agenda, political
analysts say, focusing instead on more easily attainable
social goals, or simply jumping on the sectarian
bandwagon and riding fears of Iran.
Government officials still make a point of mentioning
reform and praise change, but they uniformly emphasize
that it must come slowly and gradually. In the meantime,
security officials have grown less tolerant of calls for
things like a constitutional monarchy and elections of
the consultative Shura Council. In February, Saudi
Arabia�s security forces rounded up 10 men connected to
the country�s reform movement in two cities, Jidda and
Medina, charging them with financing terrorism.
Security officials said the men, whose names were not
initially disclosed, were collecting money and smuggling
it to �suspicious bodies� in Iraq. But a day later it
emerged that at least three of the men signed a petition
directed at the king calling for a new constitution
based on Islamic law, curbs on the powers of the
Interior Ministry, an election of members of the Shura
Council and a more equitable allocation of Saudi
Arabia�s wealth and land.
Shocked reform advocates saw the arrests as a signal of
how low their fortunes had fallen. The group did submit
the petition to the king in April, but members said they
had heard no response.
�You see the absurdity of calling some of these men
terrorists,� Mr. Falleh said. �They are just doing this
to kill off the reform movement and prevent any sympathy
toward those were arrested.�
Mr. Alim, who represents several of the men, does
acknowledge that one of them had been to Iraq twice
under the auspices of the Saudi Red Crescent but insists
that his visits were strictly humanitarian. Mr. Alim
said he, too, would have been arrested if he had signed
the petition. Instead, he said, the government has
barred him from traveling abroad.
Mr. Hattlan of Forbes Arabia said: �Some people feel
it�s a hopeless case, that the government is the only
force for change. People don�t want to enter a losing
war. Society is not on your side, and you have a long
way to go.�
Jidda�s City Council, like other city councils around
the country, has gone to great lengths to try to bring
about some change, but many councilmen admit they are
trying to make the most of a difficult situation. By
their own admission, however, the councilmen have yet to
make a mark on municipal decision-making. They insist,
however, that they may well be the real catalysts for
change in the country. But first, their powers must be
expanded.
�The picture is not very rosy, but it is not all that
gloomy either,� insisted Hussain al-Bar, who was elected
to Jidda�s council in 2005. �The problem is that people
here expect to see fast wins. But what we do, real
change, takes time, and a lot of it.�
Rasheed Abou Alsamh contributed reporting from Riyadh.
From The New York Times on the Web (c) The New York
Times Company. Reprinted with Permission. April
26, 2007
