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Editor's Note:
Last week SUSRIS provided
Jon Alterman's and Anthony Cordesman's perspectives on President Bush's Middle East trip in the form of a briefing at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Today we are pleased to share Jon Alterman's view on US-Saudi relations in a SUSRIS exclusive interview conducted on May 7, 2008 on the sidelines of the
U.S.-Arab Economic Forum in
Washington. Doctor Alterman served in the State Department's Policy Planning Staff before becoming Director and a senior fellow in the CSIS Middle East Program.
Understanding Saudi-US Relations:
A Conversation with Jon Alterman
Director of the CSIS
Middle East Program
 SUSRIS:
Thank you for taking time to share your perspectives with SUSRIS readers. What is your view on the state of the relationship between the United States and Saudi Arabia?
Jon B. Alterman: What�s striking is just how rich the US-Saudi relationship is. It�s not just an energy relationship. It�s not just a security relationship. It has to do with virtually everything the U.S. does in the Middle East. The relationship has gone from being a comfortable relationship to one with considerable sensitivities on both sides, and many more sensitivities in public than officials have in private.
Saudi Arabia has become more important to the United States, but with that importance comes a complexity in the relationship that both governments continue to struggle with.
SUSRIS: In what terms has the relationship become more important?
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 Alterman: I think it�s partly an issue of growing Saudi capacity -- that Saudi Arabia diplomatic role in the region is much greater than it�s been in the past. Saudi Arabia has extended its influence in any number of efforts in the region. It�s also that the relationship between some forces in Saudi Arabia and many of the problems the US sees in the region. This has meant that the need for cooperation between people, not just at the ministerial level, but at the working level in the United States and Saudi Arabia to work together, to set common goals, to work in a sustained fashion has increased tremendously over the last decade. That�s all going to go in one direction -- it�s going to continue to increase. Saudi Arabia is being pressed to do more complicated things -- the US is asking Saudi Arabia to do more complicated things. There�s often a great deal of common purpose at the senior level, but making that filter down to the working level is sometimes harder to do.
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SUSRIS:
How will this presidential election year impact the relationship with Saudi Arabia?
 Alterman:
I don�t see Saudi Arabia being a political football in the election. I think the political football is more likely to be Iran � what the candidates say about Iran. What they say about Iraq will have a profound effect on Saudi Arabia. As far as the US-Saudi relationship, I think the political leadership in the United States understands the importance and complexity of this relationship and would rather not have a highly publicized debate about it. They probably see that as painting themselves in a corner, if they were to win the election.
That being said, the McCain campaign has talked about the greatest threat to the United States being Islamic radicalism. There are many people in the United States who trace that quickly and directly to Saudi Arabia. That could color the way a McCain administration would look at a whole range of matters affecting the bilateral relationship.
SUSRIS: Do you sense there is any concern on the Saudi side that the post-Bush Administration playing field is going to shift?
 Alterman: When I was in Saudi Arabia a couple of months ago, I didn�t sense handwringing over the American election. The Saudis understand they can�t affect the American election. They shouldn�t try to affect the American election. They will build a relationship with the next American president, as they have built a relationship with every president since
Franklin
Roosevelt. |
I think there�s a much deeper concern about how to structure what historically had been a very close relationship that has undergone tremendous strains for the last decade. There�s concern about getting that right. I don�t think it�s so much about who is the president. It�s about what kind of investments need to be made in both countries to try to build a durable, sustainable and ultimately mutually beneficial and long-term relationship that will carry the United States and Saudi Arabia into the future.
SUSRIS: President Bush is going to Saudi Arabia next week and there is great pressure concerning the price of crude oil in the marketplace. What do you see as the likely outcome of talks about oil production and pricing? [Date of interview: May 7, 2008]
Alterman: I expect a gesture of goodwill, but not a fundamental change in the shape of the market. Everybody I talk to in the oil business tells me that the only way to fundamentally shift the nature of the market is on the demand side, not the supply side. There�s no way to spike up the supply of oil in the interim and demand is rising tremendously. Demand has flattened in other places, and demand goes down in a recession. My guess is that the real change in the oil market will be demand driven rather than supply driven. On the supply side, you may have a little bit of easing, but there�s just no way to dramatically affect the market that way.
 SUSRIS: Let's talk about Iran as a potential nuclear power.
Senator Clinton said she
favored extending an American umbrella of protection for Israel and would extend that to the Arab countries, including Saudi Arabia, to protect them against a nuclear Iran, suggesting that people are looking past the current confrontation and accepting that Iran may acquire nuclear weapons. How do you view the prospect of an American umbrella for protection of the Arabian Peninsula against a nuclear Iran?
Alterman: Extending a nuclear umbrella to our Gulf allies is a lose-lose-lose proposition. I don�t think it tells Gulf allies anything that they don�t already know. The U.S. put troops into Saudi Arabia and Kuwait to push back Iraq. The U.S. commitment to defending security in the southern Gulf is clear. I don�t think it tells the Iranians anything they don�t know. It commits the U.S. to a narrower set of options that the U.S. might want to have in the event that something happens. I don�t see what you�re getting in return for the cost.
Now, you might argue that this could be tied into an Arab-Israeli peace deal. We�re not on the brink of an Arab-Israeli peace deal. When that eventuality comes, I�m willing to entertain the possibilities of linkage and a whole set of other issues. But to come out now during campaign season and basically try to puff yourself up as tough on security because you�re willing to take on Iran doesn�t deter the Iranians. It doesn�t provide comfort to the Gulf countries. It increases tensions in a region that already has lots of tensions and limits your options. It seems to me what we need to do is expanding our options and look for ways to increase our leverage over the Iranians. And part of that means you don�t paint yourself into a corner.
SUSRIS: What should Americans know about the US-Saudi relationship beyond the stereotypes?
Alterman: There are two issues. First I don�t think people appreciate how much we do with Saudi Arabia. It�s just not understanding the importance of Saudi Arabia to the U.S. in a myriad of ways. It�s not just energy. It�s not just security. It comes to economic issues, counterterrorism issues, regional diplomacy issues. There�s a centrality and importance to Saudi Arabia that I think most Americans don�t have an appreciation for.
I also think that Americans don�t appreciate the difficulty of managing the US-Saudi bilateral relationship. This is really hard to do. It�s hard because our systems are extraordinarily different and because there are many things we don�t agree on. But none of those differences or disagreements negate the first part that this is a very important relationship. That�s a hard balance to maintain, both understanding the importance, but appreciating the difficulty of keeping this on track.
There are a number of people on both sides who do a spectacular job bringing these very different systems and governments together in common purpose to do some really important things in a dazzling array of areas.
About Jon Alterman
Jon Alterman is director and senior fellow of the
CSIS Middle East
Program. Prior to joining CSIS, he served as a member of the Policy Planning Staff at the U.S. Department of State and as a special assistant to the assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern affairs. He served as an expert adviser to the Iraq Study Group (also known as the Baker-Hamilton Commission) and is a professorial lecturer at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.
Before entering government, he was a scholar at the U.S. Institute of Peace and at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. From 1993 to 1997, Alterman was an award-winning teacher at Harvard University, where he received his Ph.D. in history. He also worked as a legislative aide to Senator Daniel P. Moynihan (D-NY), responsible for foreign policy and defense. Alterman has lectured in more than 20 countries on subjects related to the Middle East and U.S. policy toward the region.
He is the author or coauthor of three books on the Middle East and the editor of a fourth. In addition to his academic work, he is a frequent commentator in print, on radio, and on television. His opinion pieces have appeared in the
Washington Post, Los Angeles Times, Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, Asharq
al-Awsat, and other major publications. He is a member of the editorial boards of the
Middle East Journal and Transnational Broadcasting Studies and is a former International Affairs Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.
CSIS Profile - Jon B. Alterman
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