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SAUDI-US RELATIONS INFORMATION SERVICE

TUESDAY, MARCH 9, 2004                                                                   SPECIAL REPORT
Future of Global Oil Supply: 
Saudi Arabia

 
Editor's Note:

Officials from Saudi Aramco recently briefed audiences in Washington, DC on oil reserves and management in the Kingdom.  Mr. Mahmoud Abdul Baqi, VP Exploration, and Dr. Nansen Saleri, head of reservoir management at Saudi Aramco provided a detailed presentation hosted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies on February 24, 2004.  The Saudi-US Relations Information Service has compiled audio and text versions of their presentations, along with briefing slides, and background materials to serve as a resource for your use.  

This SUSRIS Special Report provides the briefing overview as well as links to the on-line resources.  Please take a look at these presentations and join a discussion of this important issue in the SUSRIS discussion forum.

 
Future of Global Oil Supply: Saudi Arabia
A Conference Hosted at the Center for Strategic and International Studies on Feb. 24, 2004

- Saudi Arabia's Oil Reserves - Overview
- Introductory Remarks
- Presentation - Mr. Mahmoud M. Abdul Baqi, Saudi  Aramco, Vice President, Exploration
   
[ Audio ]  [ Text ]  [ Bio ]
- Presentation, Dr. Nansen Saleri, Saudi Aramco, Manager, Reservoir Management 
    [ Audio ]  [ Text ]  [ Bio
-
Slides - Summary - 50 Year Crude Oil Supply Scenarios: Saudi Aramco's Perspective - (PDF - 2.17MB) 
- Slides - Presentation - 50 Year Crude Oil Supply Scenarios (PDF - 4.89MB) 
- Saudi Aramco Quick Facts 
- Discussion Forum

 
NOTE: This is the summary of Mahmoud Abdul-Baqi and Nansen Saleri's presentations which were given to the CSIS in Washington on February 24, 2004

Global Outlook:

World energy demand is expected to increase at an annual rate of 1% to 2% over the next 15 years, reaching an annual demand of 107 million barrels per day by 2020, partly as an anticipated consequence of growth in China, India and other South East Asian economies.

Worldwide oil reserves at year-end 2002 stand at 1050 billion barrels, of which 65% (or 686 billion barrels) is in the Middle East, with Saudi Arabia being the principal player. The Middle East contributes about a third of total world production, has a reserves-to-production life of 92 years and is expected to play a pre-eminent role in the global energy theater.

Overview of Upstream Operations:

Saudi Aramco's current operations encompass 1.5 million square kilometers, comprising 85 fields, 320 reservoirs and 25% of world oil reserves. Current daily production capability stands at 10 million barrels of crude oil and 9.6 billion cubic feet of gas. The Company's strategy calls for an annual reserves replacement of its crude production, while adding 5 trillion cubic feet gas reserves through an integrated exploration, delineation and development program.

Reserves and Future Potential:

Saudi Aramco's oil and gas reserves conform to industry standards. Reserves attributable to enhanced oil recovery (EOR) processes are excluded, underscoring the conservative nature of the Company's reserves. Year-end 2003 proved oil reserves totaled 260 billion barrels. Incremental probable and possible reserves (over and above the 260 billion barrels) are estimated to be 103 billion barrels. Exploration, delineation and development efforts have increased Saudi Aramco's oil initially in place from 600 to 700 billion barrels during the past 20 years. Vast unexplored acreage exists in the Rub' al Khali desert region, the northern basin (along the border with Iraq) and the offshore Red Sea Basin. US Geological Survey 2000 projections point to additional recoverable oil resources ranging from 29 to 161 billion barrels to be discovered in Saudi Arabia by 2025. The Company projects its oil initially in place volume to reach 900 billion barrels by the same date.

Reservoir Development and Management Practices:

The stewardship of Saudi Arabia's hydrocarbon reserves is Saudi Aramco's paramount objective. The Company develops and manages its rich portfolio of hydrocarbon reserves, employing state-of-the-art technological resources, best-in-class reservoir management practices and a world-class professional workforce. The emphasis is on long-term production sustainability and maximum recovery.

Sophisticated diagnostic capabilities (empowered by numerically-intensive computational models) and comprehensive reservoir surveillance programs are two key enablers assuring high accuracy field production forecasts, superior operational efficiency and optimal reservoir development strategies.

Synopsis:

Saudi Aramco's proved oil reserves of 260 billion barrels, represents a conservative figure, by established industry (SPE/WPC/AAPG) standards. Significant upward potential for reserves additions exists. Oil-focused exploration and delineation efforts, application of EOR processes and continual emphasis on existing and future technologies - custom-fit to the Company's reservoir portfolio - will certainly engender a major expansion in Saudi Aramco's reserves base in the decades ahead, commensurate with global market conditions and requirements.

The Company is committed to maintaining its pre-eminent role as a reliable, cost-effective and environmentally friendly global oil supplier. If called upon, sustained daily crude production levels of 10, 12 and 15 million barrels per day can be readily maintained through 2054 and beyond. Saudi Aramco has the financial, organizational and technical capabilities to do so.


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