CRAWFORD,
Texas, April 24 - When he meets at his ranch here on
Monday with Crown Prince Abdullah of Saudi Arabia,
President Bush will confront one of his trickiest
diplomatic relationships. He will look for help on
oil prices, try to find common ground on the
Arab-Israeli conflict and prod the crown prince to
allow more democracy at home , even as both sides
struggle with deep strains set off by the
involvement of Saudis in the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks,
American officials and analysts said.
Three
years after the two leaders held a tense meeting
here, American officials and analysts say the
atmosphere has improved. But Mr. Bush remains under
pressure from members of both parties in Congress to
take a hard line with the Saudis when it comes to
terrorism and Israel, they said, while the Saudis
remain resentful that they do not get more credit
for what they see as intensive efforts to be helpful
and responsive to the United States.
American
officials give the Saudis some credit for stepping
up their efforts to combat terrorism within their
borders and to stop the flow of money from Saudis to
terrorist groups. They said Saudi Arabia was also
helpful in recent months in pressuring Syria to
begin withdrawing from Lebanon.
At
the same time, the Saudis have been heartened by Mr.
Bush's stepped-up involvement in seeking peace
between the Palestinians and Israelis, analysts
said. Now Mr. Bush will be seeking help from the
Saudis to help bring down crude oil and gasoline
prices, which are taking a toll both on the economy
and on Mr. Bush's approval ratings.
"Since
the Sept. 11 attacks, you've had this growing chorus
of anti-Saudi voices in the United States, and not
from the fringes," said Flynt L. Leverett, a
senior fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East
Policy at the Brookings Institution and former
senior director at the National Security Council
under Mr. Bush. "From the Saudi point of view,
this administration, while not joining the
anti-Saudi perspective, has not done much to quiet
it. But now that Bush has been re-elected, they're
in a sense willing to give the administration
another shot at improving the quality of the
relationship."
Their
meeting is unlikely to result in any big
breakthroughs. When it comes to oil, the Saudis have
less ability to drive down global prices by
increasing output than at many times in the past,
because they are already pumping closer to their
maximum sustainable capacity than during past price
spikes.
But
in part because of the growing domestic political
pressure on Mr. Bush to show that he is doing
everything possible to help bring down crude oil and
gasoline prices, oil issues will play a more
prominent role at this meeting than at the previous
one here, in 2002.
"This
is a new ballgame," said Robert
W. Jordan, a former United States ambassador to
Saudi Arabia. He said he expected Mr. Bush "to
make a pitch to Saudi Arabia to expand
production."
When
the two leaders last met at the Bush ranch, the
average price of a gallon of regular unleaded gas
was $1.41, according to the American Automobile
Association. The price is now about 50 percent
higher.
Over
the same period, global demand for oil has risen
sharply, fueled by consumers in China and India. In
2002, Saudi Aramco, the state-owned oil company,
says it produced 6.8 million barrels of oil per day.
The Saudis are now estimated to produce about 9.5
million barrels a day.
As
demand and production have increased, the Saudis
have been left with less spare production capacity
to smooth out price spikes. Three years ago it was
about three million barrels a day, according to
Saudi Aramco. Today "the cushion is very, very
small," about 1.2 million barrels, according to
Nawaf Obaid, an oil and security consultant.
The
drop in Saudi spare capacity is a major reason why
the Saudis are less able to influence the price of
oil today, according to Mr. Jordan and Mr. Obaid.
The
Saudis have announced new development plans. Their
aim is to offset declines in older fields and to
increase overall capacity to 12.5 million barrels.
Refineries
are operating at more than 90 percent of total
capacity in the United States. Still, gasoline
prices have not risen as fast as crude oil prices in
the last three years. Crude oil traded at $26.36 the
day of the 2002 summit meeting, about half the
current price.
Meanwhile,
the Saudis have shifted away from their historical
dependence on American oil giants, who once
controlled Aramco. Six months after the 2002 meeting
here, the crown prince complained in a private
meeting with American diplomats that the American
companies were being too greedy in their
negotiations over a plan to give foreign investors
access to some of Saudi Arabia's natural gas
resources, American and Saudi officials said.
In
relations between the United States and Saudi
Arabia, much rides on personal relationships because
the diplomacy tends to be conducted at the highest
levels. Vice President Dick Cheney met Sunday in
Dallas with the crown prince and will be at the Bush
ranch on Monday, as will other top officials,
including Fran Townsend, the White House's homeland
security adviser, who has often been an envoy to the
Saudis on terrorism and security issues.
Analysts
said the Saudis remained suspicious about Mr. Bush's
intentions when it comes to a final agreement
between the Israelis and Palestinians. They said the
Saudis were concerned about a number of developments
in the Middle East, including the growing Shiite
influence in the region, especially in Iraq, where
the continued instability is a worry to the Saudis.
Saudi Arabia's religious establishment is dominated
by the Wahhabi branch of Sunni Islam.
Members
of both parties in Congress are pressing Mr. Bush to
do more to compel the Saudi leadership to crack down
on clerics who are inciting anti-American and
anti-Western feeling within Saudi Arabia, and to
take more concrete steps to ensure that money given
to charity in Saudi Arabia is not making its way to
terrorist groups.
"The
alliance between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia in terms
of fighting terrorism is still a work in
progress," said Representative Sue Kelly,
Republican of New York, who met recently with
Abdullah in Riyadh.
Richard
W. Stevenson reported from Crawford for this
article, and Jeff Gerth from Washington.
From
The New York Times on the Web (c) The New York
Times Company. Reprinted with Permission.