Saudi Arabia - United States Relations - Nawaf Obaid

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Interview
September 4, 2006

King Abdullah at the GCC Summit (SPA)

"Space to Maneuver": King Abdullah�s First Year
A Conversation with Nawaf Obaid

Editor's Note

We recently called on Mr. Nawaf Obaid, Director of the Saudi National Security Assessment Project, to discuss the crisis in Lebanon that erupted in July and its effects on Saudi-US relations. We also talked about the first anniversary of King Abdullah's rule -- he ascended to the throne in August 2005 upon the passing of King Fahd. Today we are pleased to bring you the second part of our conversation where Mr. Obaid shared his thoughts on developments in the Kingdom and the stamp King Abdullah has placed upon them.

SUSRIS talked with Mr. Obaid by phone from Riyadh on August 19, 2006.

"Space to Maneuver": King Abdullah�s First Year
A Conversation with Nawaf Obaid

SUSRIS: Thank you for talking with SUSRIS today as we review the first year of King Abdullah�s reign. What is the signature development since he assumed the throne?

Nawaf Obaid: The highlight of King Abdullah�s first year is what he has done on the domestic front.

The huge amount of oil revenue that Saudi Arabia has received in the last two years has gone into the areas where the country most needed it -- financing the reform movement that he set up as Crown Prince. He has made sure there is funding for social programs, for public services, for education � especially for the reform of education in the areas of curriculum and text books.

A lot of the revenue has gone to pay the domestic debt of Saudi Arabia -- the country has no foreign debt. He paid back a large chunk of it last year, and this year he is going to be doing the same. There has been an increase in Saudi Arabia�s international standing. The financial standing of the Kingdom today is very, very strong. By the end of this year Saudi foreign assets should be up to approximately a quarter of a trillion dollars in foreign assets by the end of 2006.

In the key area of oil production Saudi Arabia under King Abdullah�s leadership has been carefully increasing capacity. By ensuring sustained production the Kingdom can guarantee its role as the ultimate stabilizer of world petroleum prices and more importantly protects against spikes in oil prices if there is an emergency in the world market.

[Ed. Note: SUSRIS is pleased to make available on SUSRIS.org briefing slides provided by Nawaf Obaid on his study, �Saudi Arabia's Strategic Energy Initiative: Safeguarding Against Supply Disruptions,� Saudi National Security Assessment Project � July 29, 2006 - CLICK HERE ]

There has been an effort to open the social environment for women, to give women a larger environment in which to operate, making sure they receive exposure through the media and in business circles. For example, there have been delegations of women that have traveled to destinations being visited by King Abdullah.

There has been an effort to relax restrictions on the press, especially the print media. Many topics that used to be taboo are actually being discussed openly today in the Saudi press, even on TV.

There are a lot of areas where things have been changing, especially over the last year � too many to list them all.

SUSRIS: So the reform movement that was in progress -- social, economic, political -- while he was Crown Prince has been boosted by King Abdullah�s ascension to the throne?

Obaid: Since he became king he has had more space to maneuver and to push forward these reforms, especially given the fact that he has so much more oil revenue to do it with. However, I would say the momentum has been mostly in the areas of economic and social reforms, less in the political area.

By international standards King Abdullah would get very high marks for progress in the area of reform.

SUSRIS: What happened to the momentum in the political sphere last year when municipal council elections were held?

Obaid: That was a small step in the right direction, but there�s more that needs to be done there. They should be given some form of decision-making power in order to affect the regional level.

SUSRIS: How would you describe developments in the Majlis Ash-Shura, the Consultative Council?

Obaid: The structure there is pretty much as it used to be, but they�re getting much more to do in terms of topics to debate. The test will be if they are given decision-making powers.

SUSRIS: Can you tell us about the National Dialogue in Saudi Arabia?

Obaid: The National Dialogue basically fits into the realm of social and educational reforms. It brings together people from all walks of life, from all different regions in Saudi Arabia, to talk about sensitive social and education issues and how to approach change in those areas.

They have talked about education. They have talked about youth. They have talked about extremist rhetoric and how to change it. They have talked about religious extremism and how it can be tackled.

In that regard, but apart from the National Dialogue, people should know about King Abdullah�s efforts against extremists and the al Qaeda movement over the last three years. Under his watch he has been able to quash those threats. The government, especially in the last year, has eliminated a lot of the extremist jargon from public discourse that was present two or three years ago. King Abdullah deserves the credit for that too. He has been very positive and very aggressive in tackling these issues.

SUSRIS: Let�s turn to international relations. This year King Abdullah made groundbreaking visits to China, India, Turkey and other countries where new relationships are being forged. How should observers read these developments?

Obaid: It�s clear King Abdullah realizes that he�s the leader of the world�s largest oil producer and exporter, the largest economy in the Middle East -- basically the economic engine of the Middle East, and the economic and political heavyweight of the region. His approach to these visits has been that he needed to open up channels to the countries that most need Saudi Arabia and Saudi Arabia will most need in the area of energy. He looked to the two countries that are going to most need oil from Saudi Arabia in the future, India and especially China.

So he went to meet the leaders of these countries but he didn�t open channels to Saudi Arabia alone. He opened channels for the rest of the region as well. After King Abdullah�s visits other leaders have gone to India and to China for the same purposes.

In the case of Turkey the visit was more from an investment perspective especially after the OIC summit. As you probably know the Secretary General of the OIC [Organization of Islamic Conference] is a respected former Turkish diplomat. Through him there has been a lot of communications on Turkey�s foreign policy direction -- shifting the EU focus to a return to the Middle East and Muslim focus.

SUSRIS: Let�s talk more about the Saudi-Sino relationship. King Abdullah was the first Saudi ruler to visit China and it was his first overseas destination after ascending to the throne when he went there in January. President Hu returned the visit when he flew to the Kingdom after meeting with President Bush in Washington in April. Some see these as strong signals. How would you characterize the blossoming of the Riyadh-Beijing relationship?

Obaid: The signal here is pretty clear that the Chinese recognize Saudi Arabia as the main power in the Middle East. For China the most important aspect is that Saudi Arabia is the number one oil producer and exporter and will be into the future. China realizes its booming economy needs oil. So it is logical to establish what will eventually become a strong relationship between the number one provider of oil, Saudi Arabia, and what will become at some point in the near future the number one importer of oil, China.

SUSRIS: In reviewing the first year of King Abdullah�s reign what should Americans understand about the leadership in Riyadh?

Obaid: It is very important to note that Saudi Arabia has always been attuned to keeping a special relationship with America. This relationship has been the basis for solving numerous regional conflicts -- from the Lebanese civil war to Saddam Hussein�s invasion of Kuwait, to stopping Khomeini in Iran in the 80�s, to reversing the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. This relationship has really served both countries well and it still holds a lot of tools available to deal with future challenges.

However, there are problems such as the belief among some Americans, especially after 9/11, that Saudi Arabia is al-Qaeda, that Saudi Arabia has been funding al-Qaeda. There is a myth about the Saudi government being behind it. As the years have passed this conspiracy theory is slowly unraveling as more people recognize it is clearly false, as they recognize ultimately the number one target of al-Qaeda is not America but Saudi Arabia.

This misreading has taken a certain toll on the trust component of the relationship. This is the problem. There is deep distrust regarding each other and it�s growing especially after the Lebanon crisis. The fear is that it might sink to new lows, especially in the last two years of the Bush administration.

SUSRIS: Are there particular concerns about the remaining years of the Bush Administration or are you referring to US politics in general?

Obaid: The major concern now is for them to avoid opening a new front with Iran, and miscalculate as they miscalculated in Iraq and Lebanon.

That�s one. The second concern is how to alleviate the disastrous mess that Iraq is going to be.

SUSRIS: All good questions that we hope we can discuss with you further. Thank you for giving us your perspective on King Abdullah�s first year.

Nawaf Obaid is current the Managing Director of the Saudi National Security Assessment Project, a government consultancy based in Riyadh.

He is author of "The Oil Kingdom at 100: Petroleum Policymaking in Saudi Arabia" (Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 2000). he is also an Adjunct Fellow in the Office of the Arleigh Burke Chair in Strategy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, DC where he co-authored, with Anthony Cordesman, "National Security in Saudi Arabia: Threats, Responses, and Challenges."

He has a BSFS from Georgetown University's School of Foreign Service, an MA in Public Policy from Harvard University's Kennedy School of Government, and completed doctoral courses at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology's Security Studies Program.

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