Summary
From Operation Desert Storm in 1991 until the U.S. overthrow of the Saddam Hussein regime in 2003, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia was the United
States' key Arab partner in confronting the problems to international stability emanating from Iraq. Over that decade and more, however, the demands associated with containing Iraq and Saddam Hussein began to place unprecedented strains on the U.S.-Saudi relationship, particularly after the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, and the run up to the U.S. invasion. The abnormal situation that bound Saudi Arabia to the United States in having to face a common threat from Iraq has now given way to a more normal situation in which the two countries' interests and approaches toward Iraq will converge or diverge, depending on the issue concerned.
Riyadh's policy toward Baghdad over the next several years will probably be dominated by four key concerns about the future of Iraq: domestic stability, foreign meddling, oil production policy, and Iraq�s political evolution (especially the role of the Shia). Of these, far and away the most important to Riyadh is stability.
Even if Iraq achieves a stable, legitimate government, it would still be a mistake to foresee its relations with Saudi Arabia as trouble-free. Ever since the emergence of the Saudi and Iraqi states in the wake of World War I, relations between the two have been problematic. The post-Saddam period promises to be another era of bilateral difficulties over oil policies; the demonstration effect on Saudi Arabia from Iraq's democratization; and cross-border religious influence, particularly from Shia in both states and on Iraq's Sunni community from Saudi Arabia's support of Wahhabi propaganda.
In the near term, the U.S. and Saudi perspectives on Iraq will be quite similar, with both countries tightly focused on restoring peace and order, and preventing the propagation of terrorism spurred by the fighting in Iraq. Beyond that, however, there is ample room for divergence. Saudi Arabia values its ties to Washington, but its ability to cooperate with U.S. policy will be limited by regional and domestic pressures. Riyadh�s attention will frequently be distracted by the bumps and potholes on its own developmental path. Ensuring that Saudi Arabia is a force for stability in the Gulf rather than a source of disruption will be a continuing challenge for U.S. diplomacy.
Introduction
From the evening of August 6, 1990, when the late King
Fahd bin Abdul Aziz Al Saud agreed to Secretary of Defense Dick Cheney's request to deploy American troops in the wake of Iraq's conquest of Kuwait, up to the launching of the coalition operation to oust Saddam Hussein from power on March 19, 2003, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia was the United States' key Arab partner in confronting problems to international stability emanating from Iraq. Throughout those years, however, the demands associated with containing Iraq began to place unprecedented strains on the historic U.S.-Saudi relationship, strains that erupted into the open after 9/11 and in the run-up to the invasion of Iraq. These strains have included not only differences over policy toward Iraq but also the domestic effects in Saudi Arabia of prolonged deployments of U.S. forces, the impact on Saudi public opinion of the violence in the Palestinian territories, and the role played by Saudi citizens in the 9/11 attacks.
While Saudi Arabia and the United States have been strategic partners for decades, the relationship was historically a low-key one, built primarily on shared economic interests and the containment of communism, with any U.S. security commitment largely tacit and, with rare and brief exceptions, out of sight. Iraq's August 1990 invasion of Kuwait changed all that. For the first time, substantial U.S. combat forces were present in the kingdom on a sustained basis, putting ties between the two countries under intense and prolonged scrutiny, both from Arab-Islamic critics of the ruling family's pro-American policies and from American critics of the kingdom's social and political systems. Moreover, while the U.S. government has ample experience in dealing with issues arising from its military presence abroad, for the Saudis this was a novel and uncomfortable situation. This abnormal situation has, in a sense, now given way to a more normal one in which the two countries' interests and approaches toward Iraq will converge or diverge, depending on the issue concerned. The purpose of this report is to explore how Saudi Arabia will define its policies toward Iraq in the coming years and to what extent those policies will tend to promote or hinder the attainment of U.S. objectives.
< continued - The Primacy of Stability
[Part 2] >
Complete Report (PDF):
Saudi Arabia and Iraq: Oil, Religion, and an Enduring Rivalry
Joseph McMillan
Complete Section:
Iraq and Its Neighbors - USIP
About Joseph McMillan
Joseph McMillan is senior research fellow at the National Defense University�s Institute for National Strategic Studies. The views expressed are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of the National Defense University, the Department of Defense or the U.S. government. He wishes to thank Rachel Bronson, Scott Lasensky, Phebe Marr, and Daniel Serwer for their valuable comments on an earlier draft of this report. Kerem Levitas of the Institute�s Center for Conflict Analysis and Prevention provided additional research for the report.
The views expressed in this report do not necessarily reflect views of the United States Institute of Peace, which does not advocate specific policy positions.
About USIP
The United States Institute of Peace is an independent nonpartisan national institution established and funded by Congress. Our mission is to help prevent, manage, and resolve international conflicts by empowering others with knowledge, skills, and resources, as well as by our direct involvement in peacebuilding efforts around the world.
Of Related Interest from USIP
- A number of other publications from the United States Institute of Peace examine issues related to Iraq and regional security in the broader Middle East.
Recent USIP reports include:
Iraq and Its Neighbors/Iran and Iraq: The Shia Connection, Soft Power, and the Nuclear Factor, by Geoffrey Kemp (Special Report, November 2005)
Iraq and Neighbors/Turkey and Iraq: The Perils (and Prospects) of Proximity, by Henri J. Barkey (Special Report, July 2005)
Who Are the Insurgents? Sunni Arab Rebels in Iraq, by Amatzia Baram (Special Report, April 2005)
Iraq�s Constitutional Process: Shaping a Vision for the Country�s Future, (Special Report, February 2005)
Promoting Middle East Democracy: European Initiatives, by Mona Yacoubian (Special Report, October 2004)
Global Terrorism after the Iraq War (Special Report, October 2003)
Islamist Politics in Iraq after Saddam Hussein, by Graham E. Fuller (Special Report, August 2003)
USIP Library Resources
Oral Histories Project on Stability Operations: Iraq Experience
Iraq Online Resources
Iraq Peace Agreements Online Resources
< click
here for more >
