Saudi Arabia - King Abdullah - Jean Francois Seznec

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SUSRIS EXCLUSIVE

The Rule of King Abdullah:
A New Paradigm
A Conversation with
Jean-Francois Seznec

Editor's Note:

Three years ago King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz ascended the throne of Saudi Arabia upon the death of his half-brother King Fahd. Abdullah had served as de facto regent since 1996 following a stroke suffered by Fahd. In that time Abdullah led the Kingdom through many of its most daunting challenges including: the economic downturn of the late 1990s; the strain on relations with the United States following 9/11; the search for peace between Arabs and Israelis; the proliferation of regional security threats; the domestic threat posed by Al Qaeda's deadly terrorist campaign across the Kingdom; and plans for political, social and economic reform.

Today we begin a series of interviews and articles about King Abdullah highlighting his impact on Saudi-US relations and developments in the Kingdom and the region, with our conversation with Jean-Francois Seznec. Dr. Seznec is a Visiting Associate Professor at Georgetown University and Managing Partner of the Lafayette Group LLC, a US based private investment company. He talked with SUSRIS on July 23, 2008 by phone from his home in Maryland.

SUSRIS EXCLUSIVE

The Rule of King Abdullah: A New Paradigm
A Conversation with Jean-Francois Seznec

SUSRIS: Thank you Professor Seznec for taking time to share your perspective on Abdullah's first three years as King. Let's start with your overall impression of his performance?

Dr. Jean-Francois Seznec: King Abdullah�s greatest achievement is pushing the Kingdom kicking and screaming into the 21st century. He is trying to bring enormous economic growth to the Kingdom and he knows economic gains can only be achieved if he marginalizes the most conservative Muslim elements that are now in control of society. In the last three years, his main actions have been against these conservative elements.

These things could not be done when Abdullah was the Crown Prince. As Crown Prince he did not have the legitimacy to push the Sahwa [see Lacroix IOI link], to push the religious police and so on and move them out of the way. Now he�s doing it.

You may have seen the recent reports that talked about King Abdullah appointing a committee to revise Saudi law. It addresses how Sharia should be implemented so there will be precedents the judges will have to follow. Today in Saudi Arabian courts, because of the understanding of Sharia, precedents cannot be used. So any judge can reach one conclusion anywhere at anytime � and the same case would be tried totally differently in another court.

It�s also very interesting that they have decided this committee should represent not only the Hanbali school of thought, but also the three other Sunni schools of law. That will change the way law is administrated in the country. That is a direct attack on the religious establishment -- perhaps his greatest achievement.

SUSRIS: What other accomplishments do you attribute to King Abdullah?

Seznec: One major achievement in the past three years was that he was able to push through the Bay'ah Council law on succession � the Allegiance Institution. It gives about 34 princes responsibility to decide who the next Crown Prince will be. To be more precise, they can accept the King�s nomination of a Crown Prince or they can name someone else.

[Ed note: From the �Allegiance Institution� decree: �In the event that the King rejects the committee�s nominee, the Allegiance Institution will hold a vote to choose between the King�s candidate and its own in accordance with Sections A and B of this Article. The nominee who secures the majority of votes will be named Crown Prince.�]

The committee also has the right to depose a king if the king is seen as being incompetent for health reasons. So these are very important changes for the leadership, and it�s going to have a long-term effect even in the short term.

However, I want to make the point his most significant action since he became King has been against the religious establishment. That could not have been done before he became King.

SUSRIS: How would you describe King Abdullah�s view of the world considering his ground breaking visits, as King, to countries like China, India and Russia? He has spent a great deal of time expanding diplomatic and economic ties with non-traditional Saudi partners and it seems that Riyadh is now a stop on the itinerary of every foreign leader visiting the Middle East.

Seznec: Definitely. Saudi Arabia has totally replaced Egypt as the leader of the Arab world. I�m not sure that it was a conscious decision that they were going to go for that position. It was just that Egypt did not have the power or the leadership to do so. Saudi Arabia has the financial means to do it and they have the will to do it. So they are becoming the center of activity in the region, and everybody visits them.

The fact that Abdullah�s first trip abroad as King was to China is very significant. It was on that trip that he visited India as well. This was a sign very early on he wants to make Saudi Arabia a leader not only in the Arab world but also as one of the world leaders. I think he feels that Saudi Arabia has the means in terms of energy but also the means in terms of industry. They are growing their industry extremely rapidly as you know and will become the largest producer of chemicals in the world by 2015. The industrial expansion is of enormous importance to his vision. It has a strategic value because of his vision is to become one of the world�s leaders.

SUSRIS: In May King Abdullah attended an event marking the anniversary of the Aramco partnership and he was received �like he was Elvis,� according to one person present. What are your impressions of the King�s personality, charisma and leadership?

Seznec: What your contact said is a very good assessment of the King. Everyone I�ve talked to -- it�s a relatively small number of people in the Kingdom -- is extremely impressed by the King. They support him. They sometimes criticize him for being too slow, if they are liberal, or too fast, if they are conservative. But they all think he has this absolutely fabulous charisma, which carries everyone to his side. That�s a very important point.

It reminds me very much of the charisma that King Faisal had in the �70s. I lived in the Kingdom at that time. Everyone you talked to in the Kingdom liked Faisal. They might not have agreed with him on everything but they liked him. I think it is very much the same today with King Abdullah, and I think he is making the most of that to push his agenda.

It is also very interesting because in the �70s and the �80s, Abdullah was considered to be very conservative, sort of an inward looking person. Then all of a sudden it is 1996 and he is really put in charge of the economy and the politics of the Kingdom. Then he comes to be viewed by everybody as being this great liberal person. It�s interesting to see how the views of people change. The fact remains he obviously has enormous support in the whole Kingdom with the conservatives as well as among the liberals. That is a factor that he is using to maximum advantage at this point.

SUSRIS: The future of political, economic and social developments in the Kingdom has been described -- by Rachel Bronson, author of �Thicker than Oil,� in a SUSRIS interview -- as being tied to King Abdullah�s �biological clock.� What is your assessment of Abdullah�s legacy of reform and modernization? Where will it take the Kingdom in the future?

Seznec: I agree with the biological clock metaphor and many people are extremely worried about what�s going to happen when the King dies. I think the whole purpose of the Bay�ah Council, the provisions for succession, was meant to address part of this concern. The purpose is to make sure the most professional person will be selected King by the family.

There are second-generation princes among the members of the Bay�ah Council -- perhaps more liberal princes. It�s a mix of all of the factions within the royal family. But it gives a chance for the better negotiators and more professional people to win the day. I think the King is trying to promote his legacy through this Council so that it won�t jump to Crown Prince Sultan to do whatever he wants. It�s much more of a competition and hopefully the best will win out of this competition.

The legal changes that have been started including the reform of the judicial system and the changes I mentioned about legal precedents -- the possible judgments under Sharia law using Hanbali and Hanafi schools and others of Sunni Islam -- will actually change society tremendously.

These developments will ensure at least some of King Abdullah�s legacy will continue. His legacy of pushing industrialization in the Kingdom will continue to expand. There may not be another leader with his charisma to push things as he did, but in my view these changes will continue, perhaps not as fast as under King Abdullah.

SUSRIS: Saudi Arabia and the ruling family are often portrayed negatively in the American media as in Parade magazine�s annual list of world�s worst dictators. The list included King Abdullah for the past few years. How do you view reports like that?

Seznec: I think this is a categorization by people who have an agenda and who are ignorant. That�s really all I can say.

He is obviously not a freely elected president or prime minister, but you cannot really say that Saudi Arabia is a one-person dictatorship. It is a dictatorship of a family in many ways but it works by building some form of consensus. The King is aware that he cannot be an absolute ruler because he owes his position to consensus within the family and consensus within the nation as a whole. So there is a whole lot less coercion in Saudi Arabia than in many other places.

Saudi Arabia is not a dictatorship. It doesn�t come close at all to what Saddam Hussein used to be in Iraq or what is going on in many other places today in the world.

Reporting like that really says more about the lack of knowledge of the people who make these lists than it really says about Saudi Arabia itself.

SUSRIS: How do you assess King Abdullah�s record in managing the relationship between the Kingdom and the United States?

Seznec: In all fairness, I�m not sure he will be remembered fondly as a good promoter of relations with the United States. I think Abdullah has gone out of his way to push the interest of Saudi Arabia away from the United States. He has pushed Saudi Arabia quite a bit away from the American orbit. The relationship between Saudi Arabia and the United States is no longer based on warm, fuzzy feelings.

Saudi Arabia knows it needs the United States. They like to deal with the United States, especially the American companies better than with anyone else. But they now see Saudi Arabia first. They want Saudi Arabia to be a leader in the world and if it goes against US interests, so be it. Abdullah has tried to break the mold of the traditional US-Saudi Arabia alliance. It�s still there to some extent, but Saudi Arabia is now going its own way.

SUSRIS: Do you have any final reflections on King Abdullah�s record?

Seznec: He is a remarkable man. I am absolutely sure of that. He will be sorely missed when he is gone, but of course he is still in pretty good health -- thank God. What�s scary is what could happen next, but I think he is trying to take care of that ahead of time. He�s quite a statesman, and I think that�s what�s most interesting about his rule.

Jean-Fran�ois Seznec

Dr. Seznec is a Visiting Associate Professor at Georgetown University. His research centers on the influence of the Arab-Persian Gulf political and social variables on the financial and oil markets in the region. He is focusing on the industrialization of the Gulf and in particular the growth of the petrochemical industry. He holds a MIA from Columbia University [1973], a MA and his Ph.D. from Yale University [1994]. He has published and lectured extensively and is interviewed regularly on national TV, radio and newspapers, as well as by the foreign media.

Dr. Seznec has 25 years experience in international banking and finance of which ten years were spent in the Middle East, including six years in Bahrain as a banker. Dr. Seznec is a founding member and Managing Partner of the Lafayette Group LLC, a US based private investment company. He uses his knowledge of business in the Middle East and the United States to further his analysis of the Arab-Persian Gulf.

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