U.S.-Saudi Arabia - Joseph McMillan - Conference

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ITEM OF INTEREST
May 18, 2009

U.S.-Saudi Relations in a World Without Equilibrium
Conference Transcripts -- Session 3
Joseph McMillan

Editor's Note:

Last week a major forum addressing the state of and prospects for the relationship between the United States and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia was convened in Washington by the New America Foundation (NAF) and the Committee for International Trade (CIT) of the Saudi Chambers of Commerce and Industry. Distinguished speakers spent the day providing perspectives and insights on what the relationship should look like, how economics was shaping the national security picture vis a vis the relationship, the challenges for America in the region and how the perspective on these challenges look from the Saudi Arabian point of view.

Today we are pleased to provide the transcripts from the third and final session, "Through Saudi Arabia's Window and Other Lenses: Middle East Dynamics and Stakeholder Challenges". Among the featured speakers was Joseph McMillan, the Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary for International Security Affairs Department of Defense.

Separate emails will provide each panelist's remarks and the question and answer period transcript. You can find all of the conference materials and related links at a new SUSRIS Special Section. [ "U.S.-Saudi Relations in a World Without Equilibrium" - Conference Special Section ]

Video MP3

U.S.-Saudi Relations in a World Without Equilibrium
Conference Transcripts -- Session 3
Joseph McMillan
Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary for International Security Affairs Department of Defense

[Joseph McMillan] Good afternoon, and thanks to the New America Foundation for giving me the opportunity to talk to you today. The title of this panel is Looking at the Middle East Through Saudi and Other Lenses, and since I don�t feel qualified to talk about it through a Saudi Lens, and since Abdulrahman Al-Saeed is much better positioned than I am, what I�d like to do is take a look at the region and the Kingdom�s role in it through the U.S. Defense lens, because that�s the area that I work in.

Now, I thought about going through the history of U.S.-Saudi defense engagement, but I figured one, there�s not nearly enough time, second, it�s well enough known that I don�t need to, and third, there are people here in the room that created a good bit of that history, and I�d be just asking for trouble if I tried to recite it. But I�d just like to make the point that while this cooperation has been extraordinarily close, and Saudi Arabia has clearly been one of the United States� most important partners in the Middle East, but really has never been trouble free. And by 2001, when 9/11 happened, the strains were very serious and very apparent. A lot of that had to do with the prolonged U.S. military presence in the Kingdom, when then Secretary of Defense Dick Chaney had gone to Jeddah to see King Fahd back in 1990, he promised him that the United States would send troops in force to meet the Iraqi threat. That they would stay as long as it was necessary to do the job, and then they would leave. And I don�t think anyone thought at the time it would take twelve years to do the job. And the fact that it did take twelve years created a lot of stress in the relationship. Since 2001, I think those tensions have been aggravated in many ways -- the fact that the peace process went into a stall when the � started in 2000. Very importantly, the involvement of Saudi citizens in the 9/11 attacks, and the role that some Saudis had in raising money for radical groups. On the American side, by rather emotional and not very rational calls for regime change in Riyadh as somehow the answer to the problem of Al-Qaeda, as if Al-Qaeda wouldn�t be delighted with regime change in Riyadh. And finally, most recently, sharp disagreements over whether to overthrow the Iraqi regime by force. Saudi deep discomfort with the disorder that came to Iraq in the aftermath of the fall of the Saddam Hussein regime, concerns about the nature of the new government, and finally of course the prospect that Iranian influence in Iraq would grow as a result of the change. All of that sounds like a very bleak picture, and yet when I came back to the Pentagon after a few years off being a scholar and talked to the Middle East staff a couple of weeks ago, what I was told is U.S.-Saudi military relations haven�t been better in years. We seem to have turned a page and people in the Pentagon are very optimistic about this relationship. Well, to some degree I�ve been there before, but I do think that we are facing an era where there is great possibility for cooperation. We have a lot of common challenges to face. Many of them are different from what we�ve dealt with in the past. All of them are closely intertwined. And I�d like to briefly touch on four of them.

One is violent extremism. This threat affects the United States and Saudi Arabia in very different ways, but nevertheless, we have found opportunities to work together in confronting it. One major area that affects the Department of Defense as well as much of the rest of the U.S. government is a new initiative that�s being led by State with support of other agencies to increase the capabilities of the Saudi Minister of the Interior to secure critical energy infrastructure as well as other key facilities. In addition to dealing with these direct threats, the U.S. and Saudi Arabia also have the challenge of working together to find ways to blunt the threat of extremism at its sources. There are press reports, just came out last week, about initiatives from the Yemeni side asking Saudi Arabia to cooperate with Yemen more closely in trying to bring law and order to the border areas where Al-Qaeda operatives are known to be taking shelter. And Mr. Crompton also mentioned earlier the extraordinarily successful Saudi program for rehabilitating and deprogramming former extremists. And I agree completely that this is something that we need to be studying as a model for possible adoption elsewhere in the Islamic world.

Second big issue � Iraq. As I�ve already said, it�s no secret that the U.S. and Saudi Arabia didn�t see eye to eye on the 2003 invasion or on much of the aftermath. Nevertheless, there are changes that have come to Iraq. When I was in Riyadh in January, and had the opportunity to meet with Mr. Al-Saeed -- he was part of our discussions � we found that many in the Kingdom didn�t seem to be fully aware of the positive trends that were happening in Iraq. I think since then, Saudis have become more aware of those positive trends, and have started to take tentative steps toward accommodating that and recognizing that in their policy. But from the U.S. perspective, we think that one of the key elements in overcoming many of the continuing problems that Iraq faces, that the solution lies in getting Iraq re-anchored back into the region as a whole, as a full fledged functioning member, not just of the Arab world, but of a regional security architecture more broadly. Saudi Arabia has to play a leading role in that. Its influence is too great and too important for it to opt out and not take the lead. The best way to insure that Iran doesn�t have excessive influence in Baghdad is for others to go in and counter that influence on the ground.

Third, speaking of Iran, the Iranian threat more generally, even outside Iraq, and the question of some kind of regional security architecture. Now, when I started working on Saudi Arabia, which is a long time ago, about twenty years ago now, the Iranian threat was what we were working with. That was the main thing of concern to people who were dealing with the U.S.-Saudi security relationship. That was eclipsed by Iraq for a long time, now it�s back with a vengeance. I don�t need to recite the dangers posed to the region by Iranian acquisition of a nuclear weapon, but even short of that, by increasing Iranian influence by the current Iranian regime�s capacity for troublemaking and destabilizing throughout the region. Again, whether it�s the enforcement of sanctions that are aimed at preventing Iran�s nuclearization, or finding ways to deter and defend against the use of weapons should Iran obtain them, or simply dealing with the consequences after the fact, cooperation among all of Iran�s neighbors is vital, and again, Saudi leadership is essential for such cooperation.

And finally, on Israeli-Palestinian peace, I can say that Saudi leadership is necessary and in this area in particular it certainly hasn�t been lacking, and I don�t need to recite again; others have done it very well, the important role that first King Fahd and now King Abdullah have played in pushing the peace process along. I would only suggest the effectiveness of that Saudi example in leadership on this front is a good indication of what the Kingdom can accomplish on these other fronts that I�ve been talking about, given the determination to exert that leverage.

So what�s the way forward? When I was preparing for this, I went back and looked at something I wrote back in 2001. I actually wrote it before 9/11 ever happened, that identified five different steps we needed to take to put the U.S.-Saudi relationship back on track. And they were give renewed attention to the Israeli-Palestinian dispute, articulate a positive vision for the region � that�s a positive U.S. vision, undertake a genuine strategic dialogue to harmonize U.S. and Saudi interests and approaches, set priorities � we have a habit of overstressing Saudi capacities, I think we forget sometimes such a rich country really only has about a tenth the number of people that the United States does, and it�s easy to overstretch the capacity of Riyadh to pay attention and do all the things that we want them to do all at once, so there�s some priority setting that needs to be done, and finally don�t make cooperation harder than it has to be. A lot of folks here who have served with the U.S. government in Saudi Arabia as well as people who�ve dealt with Saudi issues here in Washington know how we sometimes on both sides make cooperation harder than it needs to be. But we need to remember � we are in a new era. We need to set past disagreements aside instead of reliving them over and over again, and we need to learn from the frictions that cause tensions in the past, and figure out better ways of doing business so that we don�t repeat the same mistakes over and over again. Thank you very much.

[Visit the SUSRIS Special Section "U.S.-Saudi Relations in a World Without Equilibrium" for the transcripts from this and other panels and additional resources.]

Session Three Video

Courtesy New America Foundation

Video MP3

Speaker Biography:

Joseph McMillan
Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary for International Security Affairs Department of Defense

Joseph McMillan was a senior research fellow at the National Defense University�s Institute for National Strategic Studies from 2001 to 2009. Prior to joining NDU, Mr. McMillan served in a series of civilian positions in the Department of Defense, beginning in 1978 as a program analyst in the Office of the Chief of Naval Operations and including assignments in the Defense Logistics Agency, the Defense Security Assistance Agency, and the Office of the Secretary of Defense. In 1997 he was named Principal Director for Russia, Ukraine, and Eurasia in the Office of the Secretary of Defense. The following year he was promoted to the Senior Executive Service and appointed Principal Director for Near Eastern and South Asian Affairs. Mr. McMillan holds a B.A. in political science from the University of Alabama, did his graduate work at Vanderbilt University, and is a 1992 distinguished graduate of the National War College. He was a career member of the Senior Executive Service and the recipient of the Defense Meritorious Civilian Service Medal with Bronze Palm and the Defense Exceptional Civilian Service Medal.

Source: New America Foundation / Committee for International Trade

AGENDA

Panel III: Through Saudi Arabia's Window and Other Lenses: Middle East Dynamics and Stakeholder Challenges

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