Gulf Security Cooperation - Anthony Cordesman

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December 4, 2008

Saudi National Security and the Saudi-US Strategic Partnership
By Anthony Cordesman

Saudi National Security and the Saudi-US Strategic Partnership
By Anthony Cordesman

The US faces major problems in restoring its reputation and strategic partnerships all over the world. Every opinion poll that has addressed the subject has shown that the last eight years have done immense damage to America's position. There are few areas, however, where US action is more urgent than in the Gulf and in dealing with Saudi Arabia.

The US has now agreed to withdraw from Iraq. There never was a significant chance that Iraq would emerge as a stable strategic partner, and it is now clear that any degree of partnership will be limited and constantly subject to the uncertainties of Iraqi politics and sectarian and ethnic tensions. It has been nearly 30 years since anyone could think of Iran as a "pillar" in US security, and it is clear that even the most successful dialog with Iran will still leave the need to deter and defend against Iranian opportunism in the Gulf. The worst case is a nuclear-armed Iran that seeks some form of regional hegemony.

The US has made little, if any, progress against global religious extremism and terrorism since 9/11. The only question is whether Al Qa'ida is marginally stronger or weaker operating out of Pakistan in 2008 than it was in operating of Afghanistan on 9/11.

Campaign promise and pundits aside, the US will remain directly dependent on massive energy imports well beyond 2030, and equally dependent on a global economy fueled by Gulf oil. The flow of oil, gas, and petroleum exports not only requires the security of key exporting states; it requires the security of regional pipelines and shipping routes. These not only involve the security of the Persian Gulf, but the Gulf of Oman, Indian Ocean, and Red Sea. Piracy has now joined the risk of conventional and asymmetric warfare in threatening the region.

This makes understanding Saudi national security and its strengths and weaknesses a critical priority for the new Administration, the new Congress, and the US. The US has valuable relations with Egypt, Israel, and Jordan. Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and Oman all offer key bases and strategic facilities. Only one state, however, has the geographic position, military forces, strategic depth, and common interests to be a key strategic partner in the Gulf. The US needs Saudi Arabia as much as Saudi Arabia needs the US.

The US needs to understand what it can do to rebuild and strengthen its relations with Saudi Arabia as it reshapes its entire strategic position in the region. It needs to understand Saudi concerns and capabilities, the key security problems and threats the Saudis face, the nature of US and Saudi engagement, and the broader range of problems that the US must deal with to restore its reputation in Saudi Arabia and the Arab world.

The Burke Chair has prepared a draft briefing, entitled Saudi National Security and the Saudi-US Strategic Partnership, drawing on research in Saudi Arabia and consultation with US and Saudi officials. This briefing addresses all of these issues and is available on the CSIS web site at:
http://www.csis.org/media/csis/pubs/081203_saudibrief.pdf

The briefing will be revised over time, and comments and suggested changes would be most helpful. These can be addressed to [email protected]. The briefing will also be followed by a book on Saudi National Security. A review draft will be circulated during the coming month.

Other Burke Chair studies on Gulf military balance, CENTCOM, Gulf military cooperation, Iraq, and related issue can be found at:

About Anthony Cordesman

Dr. Anthony H. Cordesman holds the Arleigh Burke Chair in Strategy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and is Co-Director of the Center's Middle East Program. He is also a military analyst for ABC and a Professor of National Security Studies at Georgetown. He directs the assessment of global military balance, strategic energy developments, and CSIS' Dynamic Net Assessment of the Middle East. He is the author of books on the military lessons of the Iran-Iraq war as well as the Arab-Israeli military balance and the peace process, a six-volume net assessment of the Gulf, transnational threats, and military developments in Iran and Iraq. He analyzes U.S. strategy and force plans, counter-proliferation issues, arms transfers, Middle Eastern security, economic, and energy issues. [Click here for more]

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