Saudi Arabia - Gulf Arms Sales Background

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Littoral Combat Ship

The Gulf Arms Sales:
A Background Paper
Anthony H. Cordesman

The Gulf Arms Sales: A Background Paper
Anthony H. Cordesman

The Gulf arms sales package will probably have a total cost of over $20 billion over a ten-year period. It is important to stress, however, that this is an offer and Gulf states may choose to buy from other suppliers. It also involves all of the Southern Gulf states and members of the Gulf Cooperation Council.

To put these numbers in perspective, research by Richard F. Grimmett of the Congressional Research Service (CRS) shows that Saudi Arabia alone signed an average of $3.1 billion a year in new arms agreements during 2003-2006. All of the Southern Gulf states combined signed an average of $4.7 billion a year.

Lantirn targeting pod Given a massive rise in oil export revenues, which has given the GCC states holdings of some two trillion dollars, and regional perceptions of the Iranian threat, it is likely that Southern Gulf arms sales will be 50-100% higher over the next four years. The US sales will average less than a quarter of total regional purchases, and competing European and Russian weapons and technology is available in every case.

The present US arms sales proposals are also being set forth in a fundamentally different climate from many past sales to the region. Whatever they may say publicly, the Arab Gulf states and Israel both see Iran as the key threat around which they are building their forces, followed by the threat of terrorist extremist groups that can assemble teams capable of serious paramilitary attacks.

The proposed US sales focus on the needs of the Gulf states, based on extensive joint review with USCENTCOM and US officials and officers in Washington.

They do, however, also take account of Israel's need to preserve its qualitative military edge relative to any attack by its neighbors, and follow extensive discussions between the Office of the Secretary of Defense and US military, and the Israeli government, military, and embassy personnel. To put them in context, the US and Israel also agreed on programs in the summer of 2007 that would give Israel alone some $30 billion in US Foreign Military Financing.

The full details of the arms sale proposals have not yet had public release, but the following major sales have been announced.

UAE	Kuwait	Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
PAC-3 surface-to-air and missile defense systems: $9B	PAC-3 surface-to-air and missile defense systems: $1.4B	AWACS Upgrade $310M
E-2C maritime patrol aircraft: $437M		Sniper/Lantirn targeting pod $220M
		JDAM $123M
		(Upgrades to the Saudi Eastern Fleet including the Littoral Combat Ship and the sale of the AIM-9X are also proposed, but numbers are not available.)

It should be noted that the key element in dollar terms is the sale of the PAC-3 surface-to-air and missile defense system. This system has already been sold to Saudi Arabia. Coupled to US land and sea-based surface-to-air and missile defense systems in the region, this lays the ground work for a regional air and tactical missile defense system - the key mission capability needed to deal with Iran's growing ballistic missile forces.

The second most important element will be the upgrading of Saudi and UAE naval and air forces to defend their Gulf ports and infrastructure, tanker traffic, and the flow of imports and exports.

Additional sales will be offered to Bahrain, Oman, and Qatar including Link 16 secure communications to help build a more efficient collective defense capability.

The sale of the JDAM, or Joint Direct Attack Munition, is potentially the most controversial aspect of the arms package, although the US has resolved all official Israeli concerns.

The Defense Security Cooperation Agency notified Congress on January 14 of a possible Foreign Military Sale of 900 Joint Direct Attack Munitions (JDAM) tail kits (which include 550 GBU-38 for MK-82, 250 GBU-31 for MK-84, 100 GBU-31 for BLU-109). Also included are bomb components, mission planning, aircraft integration, publications and technical manuals, spare and repair parts, support equipment, contractor engineering and technical support, and other related elements of program support. The total value, if all options are exercised, could be as high as $123 million.

Saudi Arabia will have no difficulty absorbing this equipment into its armed forces, and the sale of the JDAM would greatly improve the accuracy of unguided, general-purpose bombs in any weather condition enabling the Royal Saudi Air Force's (RSAF) F-15S aircraft to participate to a greater degree in coalition operations. It will enhance training opportunities; increase RSAF F-15 operational capability, sustainability, and interoperability with USAF, Gulf Cooperation Council, and other coalition air forces.

More generally, it will allow the RSAF to carry out precision attack missions effectively, which is a critical upgrade if the RSAF is to be able to carry out missions in the Gulf area in cooperation with the US forces. It also means that the RSAF will have the precision to strike at terrorist complexes or forces with a minimal risk of damage to civilians and key energy or economic facilities.

Dr. Anthony H. Cordesman holds the Arleigh Burke Chair in Strategy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and is Co-Director of the Center's Middle East Program. He is also a military analyst for ABC and a Professor of National Security Studies at Georgetown. He directs the assessment of global military balance, strategic energy developments, and CSIS' Dynamic Net Assessment of the Middle East. He is the author of books on the military lessons of the Iran-Iraq war as well as the Arab-Israeli military balance and the peace process, a six-volume net assessment of the Gulf, transnational threats, and military developments in Iran and Iraq. He analyzes U.S. strategy and force plans, counter-proliferation issues, arms transfers, Middle Eastern security, economic, and energy issues. [Click here for more]

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SUSRIS IOI - Some Lawmakers Oppose Arms Sale - SUSRIS IOI - Jan 17, 2008
SUSRIS Special Section - President Bush's Middle East Travels - January 2008 - comprehensive collection of articles, photos, links and more related to the visit of President Bush to Israel and Palestine, Kuwait, Bahrain, UAE, Saudi Arabia and Egypt

BY ANTHONY CORDESMAN

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