Author's Note:
This
analysis addresses the short-term stability of
Saudi Arabia in 2004 and the steps the Kingdom
must take in the mid and long-term to ensure its
stability and development. The resulting risk
assessment sees little immediate threat to the
Kingdom's stability, notes it has taken
substantial steps to deal with terrorism,
projects a good economic forecast for 2004, and
describes a continuing process of economic
reform.
At the same time, it makes it clear that Saudi
Arabia has only begun a process of
counterterrorism and reform that must continue
for years to come and that it must sustain such
reform to remain stable and meet the needs of
its people. A detailed list of near and long
term issues and problems is provided with
special attention to economic and demographic
issues.
Anthony
H. Cordesman
|
Editor's
Note:
We
wish to thank Dr. Cordesman for
sharing this report with readers of
the Saudi-US Relations Information
Service.
This
analysis will be distributed in three
parts.
- Part
I -
Reducing the Threat of Terrorism
- Part
II -
The Saudi Economy in 2003
and 2004
|
|
The
Prospects for Stability in Saudi Arabia in 2004
[Part III]
The
Issue of Political, Economic, and Social Reform
By Anthony H. Cordesman
The
fact that Saudi Arabia has time on its side is
particularly important because it is in the
process of significant political, economic, and
social reforms. These reforms are still moving
much too slowly - a grim reality that affects
every country in the Arab world. At the same
time, Saudi performance during 2003 is striking
in that reform continued in spite of a massive
increase in oil export revenues.
During the year,
Saudi Arabia sustained a process of reform that
had begun to sharply accelerate shortly after
Crown Prince Abdullah became the de facto leader
of the government. It also took the following
additional measures during the course of the
year:
--
In September 2001, Saudi Arabia passed
the Law of Procedure Before Shari'ah
Courts to regulate the rights of
defendants and legal procedures. In
addition to granting defendants the
right to legal representation, the law
also outlines the processes by which
pleas, evidence and experts are
accepted by the court.
-- In
January 2002, the Code of Law Practice
went into effect in Saudi Arabia. The
law outlines the specific requirements
necessary to become an attorney,
including education, registration and
admission to the courts as well as
licensing. The law also defines the
duties and rights of lawyers,
including the right of attorney-client
privilege.
-- In
May 2002, the Criminal Procedure Law,
a 225-article bill, was passed to
regulate the rights of defendants and
suspects before the courts and police.
The law protects a defendant's rights
with regard to interrogation,
investigation and incarceration and
also by granting the defendant access
to the Bureau of Investigation and
Prosecution. Members of the Bureau of
Investigation and Prosecution are to
ensure, through visits, that the
rights of the defendants and persons
in custody are being protected. The
law also outlines a series of
regulations that justice and law
enforcement authorities must follow
during all stages of the judicial
process, from arrest and interrogation
to trial and the execution of
verdicts, ensuring that the judicial
process remains fair and balanced.
-- In
late 2002 the United States and Saudi
Arabia held bilateral discussions to
advance the WTO accession process. The
content of bilateral agreements
remains confidential until agreements
are concluded with all major trade
partners. A bilateral agreement with
the United States is still not
concluded, but the pace of talks has
accelerated.
-- On
January 1, 2003, a Customs Union was
established by the Gulf Cooperation
Council (GCC) to standardize customs
duties in the six member countries. In
accordance with the Customs Union, the
Government of Saudi Arabia approved
the reduction to 5 percent of customs
for goods formerly charged between 7
and 12 percent. In addition, the GCC
agreed to the principle of a single
port of entry. Most related laws and
regulations will be standardized by
the end of 2005.
-- On
February 24, 2003, the Saudi
Journalists Association was officially
established to protect the rights of
journalists in the Kingdom and
coordinate relations between
journalists and the media
establishment. The Association will
have an elected chairman, deputy
chairman and secretary-general. On
July 17, 2001, the Kingdom had
endorsed a 30-article law to
restructure the press industry and
allow journalists to establish a trade
association.
-- In
May 2003, Foreign Minister Prince Saud
Al-Faisal announced King Fahd's
approval for the establishment of an
independent human rights organization
in Saudi Arabia.
-- On
May 19, 2003, King Fahd pledged to
increase resources for education and
training to improve the overall
educational system in the country.
Recent initiatives include:
- Textbooks
and curricula are being updated
and modernized. Two pilot
programs, one in Riyadh and one
in Jeddah, have been established
to experiment with new teaching
methods.
- Saudi
Arabia is open to foreign
investment for private higher
education.
- English
language classes will be
introduced in the sixth grade
for the 2004-2005 academic year
in order to improve English
teaching at intermediate and
secondary schools.
--
On
June 9, 2003, the Council of Ministers
endorsed the Copyright Law, a
28-article document that meets the
requirements of the World Trade
Organization's Agreement on Trade
Related Aspects of Intellectual
Property Rights (TRIPS), placing Saudi
Arabia closer to entry in the WTO. The
law protects intellectual property
including print publications,
lectures, audio recordings, visual
displays, as well as computer programs
and works of art. The law establishes
a range of fines and actions that can
be effected for copyright violations.
Saudi Arabia has also joined the
Universal Copyright Convention and the
Berne Convention for the Protection of
Literary and Artistic Works to further
protect intellectual property and
encourage continued development and
innovative thinking.
--
On
June 16, 2003, the Council of
Ministers passed the Saudi Arabian
Capital Markets Law aimed at advancing
development of the securities (stocks
and bonds) markets in the Kingdom. The
law will take full effect in 2004 with
the appointment of the board of the
new Capital Markets Authority, which
will regulate the securities markets
and grant licenses to new, non-bank
financial institutions in the
securities business, such as financial
advisors, asset managers, investment
banks, and brokers. A general
expectation is that the new law will
lead to growth in the number of IPOs
in the stock market, eventual
development of a corporate bond
market, and entry into the marketplace
of many new financial firms separate
from the existing domestic banks.
The law will stimulate and
strengthen the Saudi economy and
increase the participation of Saudi
citizens in the capital markets. The
law will:
- Establish
the Saudi Arabian Securities and
Exchange Commission (SASEC) to
protect investor interests,
ensure fair business, promote
and develop the capital market,
license brokers, and offer
securities to the public.
- Establish
the Saudi Arabian Stock Exchange
(SASE), which will incorporate
the national securities
depository center.
- In
July 2003, the Council of
Ministers approved a new law to
regulate the insurance sector in
the Kingdom. The law opens the
sector to foreign investors and
creates a legal framework for
the many local and foreign
insurance companies currently
operating in the Kingdom. The
law is also important to further
Saudi accession to the WTO.
- In
July 2003, the Kingdom signed a
gas exploration deal with a
consortium including Shell (40
percent), Total (30 percent) and
Aramco (30 percent), marking the
first entry of foreign companies
into gas exploration and
production in the Kingdom. At
the same time, the much larger
"Gas Initiative,"
which included three core
ventures and had been under
negotiation since 1998, ended
without deals being struck.
The Kingdom also opened
bidding by foreign firms for gas
exploration elsewhere in the
Kingdom, and results of that
process will be announced in
early 2004.
--
On
July 31, 2003, Saudi Arabia and the
United States signed an agreement to
strengthen commercial and investment
relations. As a result, the U.S.-Saudi
Council for Trade and Investment was
established to meet at least once a
year to enable representatives of both
countries to review the signing of
additional agreements on trade,
protection of intellectual property
rights, investment, vocational
training, and environmental issues.
With almost 300 joint ventures,
American companies are the largest
group of foreign investors in the
Kingdom.
--
On
August 3, 2003, Crown Prince Abdullah
announced the establishment of the
King Abdulaziz Center for National
Dialogue to promote the public
exchange of ideas as an essential part
of life in Saudi Arabia.
--
On
August 31, 2003, Saudi Arabia and the
European Union signed a bilateral
agreement guaranteeing free access to
goods and services. In the accession
process, the Kingdom is negotiating
bilateral agreements with current WTO
members while adopting the
organization's various trade rules.
Saudi Arabia has already signed 14
bilateral trade agreements with other
members of the WTO, including Japan,
Canada and Brazil.
--
In
the fall of 2003, the Minister of
Education announced that student
councils will be set up in public
schools to begin educating young
Saudis about civic responsibilities
and participatory governance. In Saudi
Arabia today, there are eight public
universities, more than 100 colleges
and more than 26,000 schools. Some
five million students are enrolled in
the education system, which boasts a
student to teacher ratio of 12.5 to 1
- one of the lowest in the world. Of
the 5.2 million students enrolled in
Saudi schools, half are female, and of
the 200,000 students at Saudi
universities and colleges, women
comprise more than half of the student
body. Currently, the government
allocates about 25 percent of the
annual state budget to education.
- In
October 2003, Dr. Maha Abdullah
Orkubi was appointed Dean of the
Jeddah branch of the Arab Open
University (AOU). This was the
first time a Saudi woman has
been appointed to such a senior
academic position.
--
In
October 2003, the Kingdom held a human
rights conference entitled 'Human
Rights in Peace and War.' The
conference concluded with the issuance
of the 'Riyadh Declaration,' which
states that respect for human life and
dignity is the foundation of human
rights; that a human being deserves
respect, regardless of race, color or
sex; that violation of human rights is
a crime deserving severe punishment;
that to hold a human being in custody
without legal basis is forbidden by
Islamic laws; that disregard for
privacy and property rights is a
violation of human rights; and that
tolerance of faith is required by
Islam, which also prohibits coercing
people to follow a certain religion.
--
On
October 13, 2003, Saudi Arabia
approved groundbreaking plans to
streamline local and municipal
governments by introducing elections
for half of the members of each
municipal council to ensure that
citizens have a strong voice in local
affairs. A one-year period has been
given to the authorities responsible
for managing and finalizing the
election procedures. The proposed
elections mark an important step in
the Kingdom's ongoing reform agenda
and follows King Fahd's address to the
Consultative Council on May 17 where
he said: "I would like to confirm
that we will continue on the path of
political and economic reform. We will
work to improve our system of
government and the performance of the
public sector and broaden popular
participation in the political
process."
--
On
November 29, 2003, King Fahd approved
changes that will enhance the
legislative role of the government's
120-member Consultative Council. This
represents a process of reform that
began in 1992, when King Fahd
introduced three major political
developments to modernize the
government within the framework of the
Kingdom's traditions:
- The
formation of the Consultative
Council (Majlis Al-Shura) - The
Consultative Council was later
expanded to 120 members who
serve four-year terms.
- The
establishment of Consultative
Councils in each of the 13
provinces of Saudi Arabia - The
Consultative Councils are
composed of leading citizens who
help provide input and review
management of the provinces by
their respective local
governments.
- The
introduction of the Basic Law of
Governance - The Basic Law is
similar to a constitution.
- The
amendments to Articles 17 and 23
of the Consultative Council
System grant the Council the
power to propose new bills or
amendments to regulations in
force and debate such proposals
without prior approval from the
King.
--
During
2003, two thousand imams who had been
violating prohibitions against the
preaching of intolerance were
disciplined or removed from their
positions, and more than 1,500 have
been referred to educational programs.
The Ministry of Islamic Affairs has
begun a three-year program to educate
imams and monitor mosques and
religious education to purge extremism
and intolerance.
--
On
December 31, 2003, The King Abdulaziz
Center for National Dialogue concluded
its Second National Forum for
Intellectual Dialogue, entitled
"Extremism and Moderation: A
Comprehensive Approach."
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There are far
too many cases where reform is still more
surface reform than substantive change and where
Saudi Arabia has made a gesture or a beginning
that it has yet to demonstrate that it will
fully implement. In the past, Saudi Arabia has
issued a whole series of five-year plans that
have called for reforms in critical areas like
"Saudization," only to fail to
implement them at anything like the rate
required. Its measures to encourage both the
repatriation of Saudi private capital and large
scale foreign direct investment have not yet
removed many practical barriers that slow the
pace of economic liberalization far below the
rate that its desirable.
Much more needs
to be done to address problems in the education
of young Saudis, both in terms of tolerance and
in moving decisively away from the emphasis on
rote learning. That is one of the greatest
single self-inflicted wounds of the Arab world
and one that now makes the idea of a
knowledge-based economy little more than a
hollow dream. The Kingdom has done nothing to
address population growth and its demographic
problems, and it is unclear that anything else
it does can be adequate until it does. It also
is just beginning to confront the fact that
young Saudi woman now are significantly better
and more practically educated than young Saudi
men and represent a half of the labor force that
must become at least as productive as men.
The very real
progress that Saudi Arabia has made in improving
the rule of law and expanding the size and
powers of the Majlis is important in a nation
with no political parties, but the Kingdom has
not yet provided the degree of transparency in
its budgets, and Majlis control over the budget
process, that is critical to developing a truly
effective popular consensus for reform and to
laying the ground work for the creation of
political parties and an elected Majlis. Human
rights reforms are just beginning, and the press
needs to have substantially more freedom.
At the same
time, Saudi Arabia is a nation whose more
progressive rulers, technocrats, educators,
businessmen, and clergy must deal with an
extremely conservative population and cannot
move quickly, or on Western terms, without
creating new problems for internal stability.
King Fahd's six-point reform program already
challenges Saudi conservatives, and Crown Prince
Abdullah's continuing support for the actual
implementation of reform has clearly moved more
quickly than many conservatives desire. The
Kingdom can and should move faster, but it must
maintain a difficult balance between the demands
of its reformers and its conservatives.
The United States and the West must
recognize that it is the conservatives and not
the reformers that almost certainly have the
largest share of public opinion.
Read
other parts of this article:
- Part
I - Reducing
the Threat of Terrorism
- Part
II - The
Saudi Economy in 2003 and 2004
Dr.
Anthony H. Cordesman holds the Arleigh Burke
Chair in Strategy at the Center for Strategic
and International Studies and is Co-Director of
the Center's Middle East Program. He is also a
military analyst for ABC and a Professor of
National Security Studies at Georgetown. He
directs the assessment of global military
balance, strategic energy developments, and
CSIS' Dynamic Net Assessment of the Middle East.
He is the author of books on the military
lessons of the Iran-Iraq war as well as the
Arab-Israeli military balance and the peace
process, a six-volume net assessment of the
Gulf, transnational threats, and military
developments in Iran and Iraq. He analyzes U.S.
strategy and force plans, counter-proliferation
issues, arms transfers, Middle Eastern security,
economic, and energy issues.
Dr.
Cordesman served as a national security analyst
for ABC News for the 1990-91 Gulf War, Bosnia,
Somalia, Operation Desert Fox, and Kosovo. He
was the Assistant for National Security to
Senator John McCain and a Wilson Fellow at the
Woodrow Wilson Center for Scholars at the
Smithsonian. He has served in senior positions
in the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the
Department of State, the Department of Energy,
and the Defense Advanced Research Projects
Agency. His posts include acting as the Civilian
Assistant to the Deputy Secretary of Defense,
Director of Defense Intelligence Assessment,
Director of Policy, Programming, and Analysis in
the Department of Energy, Director of Project
ISMILAID, and as the Secretary of Defense's
representative on the Middle East Working Group.
Dr.
Cordesman has also served in numerous overseas
posts. He was a member of the U.S. Delegation to
NATO and a Director on the NATO International
Staff, working on Middle Eastern security
issues. He served in Egypt, Iran, Lebanon,
Turkey, the UK, and West Germany. He has been an
advisor to the Commander-in-Chief of U.S. Forces
in Europe, and has traveled extensively in the
Gulf and North Africa.
Other Essays
by Dr. Cordesman
- "Developments
in Iraq at the End of 2003: Adapting
U.S. Policy to Stay the Course," by
Anthony H. Cordesman, GulfWire Perspectives,
January 7, 2004
- "Four
Wars and Counting: Rethinking the Strategic
Meaning of the Iraq War," by
Anthony H. Cordesman, GulfWire Perspectives,
December 5, 2003
- "Iraq:
Too Uncertain to Call," by Anthony
H. Cordesman, GulfWire Perspectives,
November 18, 2003
- "Saudi
Redeployment of the F-15 to Tabuk,"
by Anthony H. Cordesman, Saudi-US Relations
Information Service Item of Interest,
November 1, 2003
- "Iranian
Security Threats and US Policy: Finding
the Proper Response," by Anthony H.
Cordesman, GulfWire Perspectives, October
28, 2003
- "What
is Next in Iraq? Military Developments, Military
Requirements and Armed Nation
Building," by Anthony H. Cordesman,
GulfWire Perspectives, August 22, 2003
- "Saudi
Government Counterterrorism - Counter
Extremism Actions," by Anthony H.
Cordesman, Saudi-US Relations Information
Service Item of Interest, August 4, 2003
- "Saudi
Arabia: Don't Let Bin Laden Win!",
by Anthony H. Cordesman, Saudi-American
Forum Item of Interest, May 16, 2003
- "Postwar
Iraq: The New Old Middle East," by
Anthony H. Cordesman, GulfWire Perspectives,
April 16, 2003
- "Iraq's
Warfighting Strategy," by Anthony
H. Cordesman, GulfWire Perspectives, March
11, 2003
- "Reforming
the Middle East: President Bush's
Neo-Con Logic Versus Regional Reality,"
by Anthony H. Cordesman, GulfWire
Perspectives, February 27, 2003
- "The
Great Iraq Missile Mystery," by
Anthony H. Cordesman, GulfWire Perspectives,
February 26, 2003
- "Iraq
Security Roundtable at CSFS: A
Discussion With Dr. Anthony Cordesman,"
Center for Strategic and Future Studies,
GulfWire Perspectives, January 28, 2003
- "A
Coalition of the Unwilling: Arms
Control as an Extension of War By Other
Means," By Anthony H. Cordesman,
GulfWire Perspectives, January 25, 2003
- "Is
Iraq In Material Breach? What Hans Blix,
Colin Powell, And Jack Straw Actually
Said," By Anthony H. Cordesman,
GulfWire Perspectives, December 20, 2002
- "Saudi
Arabia: Opposition, Islamic Extremism And
Terrorism," by Anthony H.
Cordesman, GulfWire Perspectives, December
1, 2002
- "Planning
For A Self-Inflicted Wound: U.S. Policy
To Reshape A Post-Saddam Iraq," by
Anthony H. Cordesman, GulfWire Perspectives,
November 24, 2002
- "The
West And The Arab World - Partnership Or A
'Clash Of Civilizations?'" By
Anthony H. Cordesman, GulfWire Perspectives,
November 12, 2002
- "Strategy
In The Middle East: The Gap Between
Strategic Theory And Operational
Reality," by Dr. Anthony H.
Cordesman, GulfWire Perspectives, October
22, 2002
- "A
Firsthand Look At Saudi Arabia Since
9-11," GulfWire's Interview With
Dr. Anthony Cordesman In Saudi Arabia,
GulfWire Perspectives October 10, 2002
- "Escalating
To Nowhere: The Israeli And Palestinian
Strategic Failure," By Anthony H.
Cordesman, GulfWire Perspectives, April 8,
2002
- "Reforging
The U.S. And Saudi Strategic
Partnership," by Dr. Anthony H.
Cordesman, GulfWire Perspectives, January
28, 2002
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