Author's Note:
This
analysis addresses the short-term stability of Saudi Arabia in 2004 and the
steps the Kingdom must take in the mid and long-term to ensure its stability
and development. The resulting risk assessment sees little immediate threat to
the Kingdom's stability, notes it has taken substantial steps to deal with
terrorism, projects a good economic forecast for 2004, and describes a
continuing process of economic reform.
At the same time, it makes it clear that Saudi Arabia has only begun a process
of counterterrorism and reform that must continue for years to come and that
it must sustain such reform to remain stable and meet the needs of its people.
A detailed list of near and long term issues and problems is provided with
special attention to economic and demographic issues.
Anthony H. Cordesman
Editor's Note:
We wish to thank Dr. Cordesman for
sharing this report with readers of the Saudi-US Relations Information
Service.
This
analysis will be distributed in three parts.
- Part
II - The Saudi Economy in 2003 and 2004
- Part
III - The
Issue of Political, Economic, and Social Reform
|
The
Prospects for Stability in Saudi Arabia in 2004 [Part I]
By Anthony H. Cordesman
One must be careful about overreacting to
current events in Saudi Arabia, both in terms of terrorism and economics. The
Kingdom has both short and long-term problems it must come to grips with. It
must do more to fight terrorism, and it will not have another boom year like
2003 or experience any sustained reduction in its need for economic and social
reforms. The regime, however, is scarcely at risk and short-term economic
prospects remain good.
This has several major impacts for U.S. and
Western policy:
--
Supporting
evolutionary reform in Saudi Arabia is still an effective policy and one
that offers a far better chance of stability in the Kingdom, the Gulf and
world energy exports.
--
There
is enough momentum behind Saudi reform so that the United States can
accomplish far more by encouraging internal reform and reformers than by
attempting to impose its own solutions.
--
Saudi
Arabia still has much to do in fighting terrorism � as does the United
States � but is making progress and encouraging the Saudi process of
reform, again, is the best approach to dealing with the need for added Saudi
action.
--
Saudi
Arabia does face mid to long-term demographic, social and economic
pressures that make economic diversification and reform critical to its
stability and its people. This not only requires active U.S. and Western
support of the Saudi reform process but major flows of foreign direct
investment that can only come from the private sector. If Saudi Arabia
does not get such encouragement and investment, the destabilization of
Saudi Arabia will become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
|
Reducing the Threat of Terrorism
In terms of terrorism, Saudi Arabia has
steadily improved its efforts and its cooperation with the United States since
September 11, 2001. It has greatly accelerated its counterterrorism efforts
and cooperation since it started to become a major target of terrorism in May
2003. This increase in Saudi activity is shown in the following chronology of
events that took place during 2003:
--
In
February 2003, the Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency (SAMA) began to implement
a major technical program to train judges and investigators on terror
financing and money laundering. The program educates judges and
investigators on legal matters including terror financing and
money-laundering methods, international requirements for financial
secrecy, and the methods followed by criminals to exchange information.
--
On
May 12, 2003, a series of tragic bombings took place in Riyadh. Saudi
Arabia reacted with a series of new efforts to combat terrorism, and more
than 200 suspects were arrested in connection with the Riyadh bombings
between May and September 2003. Since September 11, Saudi Arabia has
questioned thousands of suspects and arrested more than 600 individuals
with suspected ties to terrorism.
- In
May 2003, three clerics, Ali Fahd Al-Khudair, Ahmed Hamoud Mufreh Al-Khaledi
and Nasir Ahmed Al-Fuhaid, were arrested after calling for support of
the terrorists who carried out the Riyadh attacks.
In November 2003, Ali Fahd Al-Khudair recanted his religions
opinions on Saudi TV. Shortly after, a second cleric, Nasir Ahmed Al-Fuhaid,
recanted and withdrew his religious opinions describing them as a
�grave mistake.� On
December 16, 2003, Ahmed Hamoud Mufreh Al-Khaledi became the third
cleric to recant on national television.
- Eleven
suspects were taken into custody on May 27 and May 28 in the city of
Madinah. Weapons, false identity cards and bomb-making materials were
confiscated. In addition, Saudi national Abdulmonim Ali Mahfouz Al-Ghamdi
was arrested, following a car chase. Three non-Saudi women without
identity cards, who were in the car he was driving, were detained.
- Yousif
Salih Fahad Al-Ayeeri, a.k.a. Swift Sword, a major Al-Qaeda operational
planner and fundraiser, was killed on May 31 while fleeing from a
security patrol.
- Ali
Abdulrahman Said Alfagsi Al-Ghamdi, a.k.a. Abu Bakr Al-Azdi, surrendered
to Saudi authorities. Al-Ghamdi, considered one of the top Al-Qaeda
operatives in Saudi Arabia, is suspected of being one of the masterminds
of the May 12 bombings in Riyadh.
- Turki
Nasser Mishaal Aldandany, another top Al-Qaeda operative and mastermind
of the May 12 bombings, was killed on July 3 along with three other
suspects in a gun battle with security forces that had them surrounded.
- Saudi
security forces raided a terrorist cell on June 14, in the Alattas
building in the Khalidiya neighborhood of Makkah. Two Saudi police
officers and five suspects were killed in a shootout. Twelve suspects
were arrested, and a number of booby-trapped Qur�ans and 72 homemade
bombs, in addition to weapons, ammunition and masks were confiscated.
- On
July 21, the Ministry of Interior announced that Saudi authorities had
defused terrorist operations which were about to be carried out against
vital installations and arrested 16 members of a number of terrorist
cells after searching their hideouts in farms and houses in Riyadh
Province, Qasim Province, 220 miles north of Riyadh, and the Eastern
Province. In addition, underground storage facilities were found at
these farms and homes containing bags, weighing over 20 tons, filled
with chemicals used in the making of explosives.
- Three
men were arrested on July 25, at a checkpoint in Makkah for possessing
printed material that included a �religious edict� in support of
terrorist acts against Western targets.
- On
July 28, Saudi security forces killed six terrorist suspects and injured
one in a gunfight at a farm in Qasim Province, 220 miles north of
Riyadh. Two Saudi security officers were killed and eight suffered minor
injuries. Four people who harbored the suspects were arrested. Nine
security officers have been killed and 19 injured in counter-terrorism
activities since May 12.
--
In
May 2003, SAMA issued instructions to all Saudi financial institutions to
strictly implement 40 recommendations of the FATF regarding money
laundering and the numerous recommendations regarding terror financing.
Furthermore, SAMA issued instructions to all Saudi financial institutions
prohibiting the transfer of any funds by charitable organizations outside
the Kingdom. SAMA has also
created a committee to carry out self-assessment for compliance with the
FATF recommendations and these self-assessment questionnaires have been
submitted. The FATF conducted
a mutual evaluation on September 21 � 25, 2003.
--
In
May 2003, a Saudi-U.S. task force was organized from across law
enforcement and intelligence agencies to work side-by-side to share
�real time� intelligence and conduct joint operations in the fight
against terrorism. Saudi authorities worked closely with U.S. and British
law enforcement agents who came to the Kingdom to assist in the
investigation. The U.S. Ambassador to Saudi Arabia, Robert Jordan,
described the cooperation of Saudi investigators with the U.S. law
enforcement representatives as �superb.�
-- Saudi Arabia redeployed Special Forces to
enhance security and counter-terrorism efforts.
--
In
May 2003, SAMA distributed �Rules Governing Anti-Monetary
Laundering and Combating Terrorist Financing� to all banks and financial
institutions in Saudi Arabia requiring the full and immediate
implementation of nine new policies and procedures. The new regulations
include the following:
- All
bank accounts of charitable or welfare societies must be consolidated
into a single account for each such society. SAMA may give permission
for a subsidiary account if necessary, but such an account can only be
used to receive, not to withdraw or transfer, funds.
- Deposits
in these accounts will be acceptable only after the depositor provides
the bank with identification and all other required information for
verification.
- No
ATM or credit cards can be issued for these accounts. No checks and
drafts are permitted from the charitable institution�s account, and
all checks and drafts are to be in favor of legitimate beneficiaries and
for deposits in a bank account only.
- No
charitable or welfare society can open or operate these bank accounts
without first presenting a valid copy of the required license.
- No
overseas fund transfers are allowed from these bank accounts.
- SAMA�s
approval is required to open a bank account.
- Only
two individuals who are authorized by the board of a charitable
institution shall be allowed to operate the main account.
-- Another major institutional initiative is
the creation of a specialized Financial Intelligence Unit (FIU) in the
Security and Drug Control Department of the Ministry of Interior. This
unit is specially tasked with handling money-laundering cases. A
communication channel between the Ministry of Interior and SAMA on matters
involving terrorist-financing activities had also been established.
-- In
August 2003, the Council of Ministers approved new legislation, which puts
in place harsh penalties for the crime of money-laundering and terror
financing. This legislation requires jail sentences of up to 15 years and
fines up to $1.8 million for offenders. The new law:
- Bans
financial transaction with unidentified parties.
- Requires
banks to maintain records of transactions for up to 10 years.
- Establishes
intelligence units to investigate suspicious transactions.
- Sets
up international cooperation on money-laundering issues with countries
with formal agreements having been signed.
-- In
August 2003, Saudi Arabia and the United States established another joint
task force aimed at combating the financing of terrorism. The task force,
which was initiated by Crown Prince Abdullah, is further indication of the
Kingdom�s commitment to the war on terrorism and its close cooperation
with the United States in eradicating terrorists and their supporters.
- On
September 23, 2003, security forces surrounded a group of suspected
terrorists in an apartment in the city of Jizan. During a gun battle,
one security officer was killed and four officers injured.
Two suspects were arrested and one killed. The suspects were
armed with machine guns and pistols and a large quantity of ammunition.
- On
October 5, 2003, security forces arrested three suspects during a raid
in the desert to the east of Riyadh.
- On
October 8, 2003, security forces raided a farm in the northern Muleda
area of Qasim Province and were able to arrest a suspect.
Three other suspects fled the scene.
Two security officers suffered injuries.
- On
October 20, 2003, security forces raided several terrorist cells in
various parts of the country, including the city of Riyadh, the Al-Majma�a
District in Riyadh Province, Makkah Province, the Jeddah District of
Makkah Province, and Qasim Province.
Security forces confiscated items including C4 plastic
explosives, homemade bombs, gas masks, and large quantities of assault
rifles and ammunition.
- On
November 3, 2003, Saudi police arrested six suspected Al-Qaeda militants
after a shootout in the holy city of Makkah in Saudi Arabia. The raid on
an apartment triggered a shootout that left two suspected terrorists
dead, and one security officer wounded.
- On
November 6, 2003, security forces investigating a suspected terrorist
cell in the Al-Suwaidi district of the city of Riyadh came under fire
from the suspects, who attempted to flee while attacking security forces
with machine guns and bombs. In the exchange of fire, one terrorist was
killed, and eight of the security officers suffered minor injuries. On
the same day, in the Al-Shara'ei district of the city of Makkah, two
terrorist suspects, who were surrounded by security forces, used
homemade bombs to blow themselves up. Their suicide followed a firefight
during which they refused to surrender when requested by the security
officers.
- On
November 20, 2003, Abdullah bin Atiyyah bin Hudeid Al-Salami surrendered
himself to security authorities. He was wanted for suspected terrorist
activities.
- On
November 25, 2003, a car bomb plot was foiled in Riyadh. The encounter
with security forces led to the deaths of two wanted terrorist suspects:
Abdulmohsin Abdulaziz Alshabanat, who was killed in the exchange of
fire, and Mosaed Mohammad Dheedan Alsobaiee, who committed suicide by
detonating the hand grenade he was carrying. The vehicle that was seized
was loaded with explosives and camouflaged as a military vehicle.
- On
November 26, 2003, a suspected terrorist was arrested. The suspect�s
hiding place was linked to the terrorist cell involved in the November 9
car bombing at the Al-Muhaya residential complex in Riyadh.
Search of the hiding place revealed large quantities of arms and
documents. Items discovered by security forces included one SAM-7 surface
to air missile, five rocket-propelled grenade launchers, 384 kilogram of
the powerful explosive RDX, 89 detonators, 20 hand grenades, eight AK-47
assault rifles, 41 AK-47 magazines, and 16,800 rounds of ammunition. Also recovered were four wireless communication
devices, three computers, computer disks and CDs, and SR 94,395 in cash,
as well as numerous identity cards and leaflets calling for the
perpetration of acts of terror.
- On
December 6, 2003, the Ministry of Interior published the names and
photos of 26 suspects wanted by security forces in connection with the
terrorist incidents that have taken place in the Kingdom in the past few
months, urging them to surrender to the authorities. The Ministry called
on all citizens and residents to report information they may have about
any of the wanted suspects. Immediate financial rewards of up to $1.9
million are being offered for information leading to the arrest of any
wanted suspect, or any other terrorist elements and cells.
- On
December 8, 2003, the Ministry of Interior announced that Ibrahim
Mohammad Abdullah Alrayis, whose name was on the December 6 list, had
been killed by security forces. The Ministry statement praised
citizens� cooperation with the security forces, who are pursuing those
wanted and those who are trying to undermine the country�s security
and safety.
- On
December 30, 2003, Mansoor Mohammad Ahmad Faqeeh, whose name had been
published in a December 6 list of 26 wanted terrorist suspects,
surrendered himself to security authorities.
-- By
December 2003, Saudi security forces had conducted over 158 raids on
various terrorist elements and groups.
--
In
December 2003, Saudi Arabia and the United States took steps to designate
two organizations as financiers of terrorism under United Nations Security
Council Resolution 1267 (1999). These
organizations are the Bosnia-based Vazir and the Liechtenstein-based
Hochburg AG. On January 22, 2004, in a joint press conference, U.S.
Treasury Secretary Snow and Adel Al-Jubeir, Foreign Affairs Advisor to
Crown Prince Abdullah, called upon the United Nations Sanctions Committee
to designate four branch offices of the Al-Haramain Islamic Foundation as
financial supporters of terrorism. This
was the fourth joint action taken against terrorist financing by the
United States Treasury Department and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. |
It should be stressed that this chronology is
drawn from Saudi government sources, although the broad factual nature of each
event has been confirmed with U.S. experts. It does put the best face on many
measures and exaggerates the degree to which they have been implemented to
some extent. The Saudi government has also understated the level of arms and
explosives flowing into the country in many of its official statements,
although Saudi officials are much more frank on a private level.
Reports of a security fence to block smuggling
from Yemen and large-scale security raids and crackdowns indicate the
government is much more active than it wants to make public. It would also
seem that the government has been able to roll up some of the best terrorist
cadres and training facilities � although scarcely to have eliminated the threat.
The Kingdom will take at least several years
to come fully to grips with current terrorist threats. Its short-term
successes have not removed cadres that are well equipped with arms and
explosives, and past experience indicates that extremists and terrorists will
soon change tactics, acquire better intelligence and become far more
sophisticated in concealing their existence and affiliations. Like the broader
war on terrorism, Saudi Arabia faces at least a low-level threat that will be
generational in character and which will probably exist in some form for the
next decade.
Saudi Arabia can only move so quickly. It must
maintain popular support, and many of the necessary social and educational
reforms to address the problems that created these threats will take a half a
decade to address. In the
interim, there are bound to be more successful terrorist attacks. Almost
inevitably, the Kingdom�s pace of change � an emphasis on cooption versus
direct action � will also prolong tensions with the United States.
As of yet, however, there seems to be little
broad social support for violent extremism anywhere in the Kingdom. To the
extent there are relevant public opinion surveys, they show that young Saudis
are far more interested in education, jobs and a career than any form of
radicalism and that the most polarizing political issue is the Arab-Israeli
conflict and not religion.
The situation seems far closer to the early
phases of the low-level AIG threat to Egypt than to the kind of threat that
could overthrow the regime. It is a major warning that both better security
methods and reforms are needed, but not that the regime is at risk or that
investments in Saudi Arabia should be assigned a much higher level of risk.
There are, however, five key problems that the
United States and Kingdom need to face:
--
Counterterrorism
cooperation must steadily improve at every level. The Kingdom is not
making enough internal or external progress for the United States to not maintain steady, quiet pressure on Saudi Arabia to make good on
its promised reforms, fully implement the measures underway, and pay more
attention to the need to reshape its approach to Islamic causes outside
Saudi Arabia in ways that support reform, moderation and tolerance.
-- The
level of popular tension between the United States and Saudi Arabia has
reached the point where it actively encourages Saudi hostility to the
United States in ways that aid extremists and terrorists. This has been
compounded by a failure to create immigration and visa procedures that
combine protection against terrorists with rapid and effective procedures
for encouraging legitimate cultural, business, medical, and student
entrants to the United States. The United States badly needs to reshape
its focus on counterterrorism to strengthen the ties between the U.S. and
Saudi and Arab moderates throughout the world and ensure that students
continue to be educated in the United States and that the United States
preserves its ties to the most progressive and moderate forces in
countries like Saudi Arabia and to ensure that legitimate medical cases
are screened and expedited on a humanitarian basis.
--
The
Arab-Israeli conflict -- and Israeli-Palestinian War in particular �
have created serious tensions between the United States and Saudi Arabia
that are unlikely to be resolved for the next 5-10 years. Both Saudi
Arabia and the United States are going to have to live with this fact, and
inevitably, most Saudis will see movements like Hamas and the Hezbollah
more as �liberators� or �freedom fighters� than as terrorists.
Whatever the U.S. and Saudi governments say in public about this aspect of
the war on terrorism, there will be inevitable limits to their
cooperation. This will, inevitably, lead to Israeli and pro-Israel demands
for Saudi action in dealing with such groups. Saudi Arabia will not
comply with them, triggering more political and media attacks.
Equal hostility will exist in Saudi Arabia over U.S. ties to Israel. No
amount of pressure can resolve this situation. Strong parallel efforts to
revitalize the Arab-Israeli peace process can � to some extent �
ameliorate it.
--
The
mid- and long-term key to U.S. efforts to help Saudi Arabia fight terrorism
is not government-to-government cooperation but rather cooperation between
the Saudi and U.S. private sectors. It is investment and trade that create
jobs in Saudi Arabia and reduces the social and economic pressures that
help encourage extremism and terrorism. Saudi Arabia needs to be more
realistic about the ROI, risk premiums, contract structures and security
necessary to create suitable incentive for U.S. and foreign investment at
the level and speed required. The United States, however, must do more to
assist U.S. industry and may have to provide some form of guarantees. A
�business as usual� approach will not do enough business at the rate
required.
--
The
fall of Saddam�s regime and the rise of active terrorism within Saudi
Arabia are both key factors that illustrate the need to recast Saudi
security in the broadest sense. The IISS estimates that Saudi Arabia is
still spending some $18 to $24 billion on defense. Declassified estimates
of Saudi arms buys indicate that the Kingdom bought $6.6 billion worth of
new arms during 1995-1998 ($4.9 billion from the
United States) and signed $4.1 billion worth of new arms agreements during
1999-2002 ($2.8 billion with the United States). If these figures are even
approximately accurate, they are far too high levels of spending. They indicate
that Saudi security efforts cost so much that they are a serious threat to
Saudi security. They also indicate that the United States needs to
actively help Saudi Arabia to refocus its security efforts on internal
security � which is generally an order of magnitude cheaper than a
conventional military build-up � and shift resources to economic growth
and social programs.
|
Read other parts of
this report:
- Part
II - The Saudi Economy in 2003 and 2004
- Part
III - The
Issue of Political, Economic, and Social Reform
Dr.
Anthony H. Cordesman holds the Arleigh Burke Chair in Strategy at the
Center for Strategic and International Studies and is Co-Director of the
Center's Middle East Program. He is also a military analyst for ABC and a
Professor of National Security Studies at Georgetown. He directs the
assessment of global military balance, strategic energy developments, and CSIS'
Dynamic Net Assessment of the Middle East. He is the author of books on the
military lessons of the Iran-Iraq war as well as the Arab-Israeli military
balance and the peace process, a six-volume net assessment of the Gulf,
transnational threats, and military developments in Iran and Iraq. He analyzes
U.S. strategy and force plans, counter-proliferation issues, arms transfers,
Middle Eastern security, economic, and energy issues.
Dr. Cordesman served as a national
security analyst for ABC News for the 1990-91 Gulf War, Bosnia, Somalia,
Operation Desert Fox, and Kosovo. He was the Assistant for National Security
to Senator John McCain and a Wilson Fellow at the Woodrow Wilson Center for
Scholars at the Smithsonian. He has served in senior positions in the Office
of the Secretary of Defense, the Department of State, the Department of
Energy, and the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency. His posts include
acting as the Civilian Assistant to the Deputy Secretary of Defense, Director
of Defense Intelligence Assessment, Director of Policy, Programming, and
Analysis in the Department of Energy, Director of Project ISMILAID, and as the
Secretary of Defense's representative on the Middle East Working Group.
Dr. Cordesman has also served in
numerous overseas posts. He was a member of the U.S. Delegation to NATO and a
Director on the NATO International Staff, working on Middle Eastern security
issues. He served in Egypt, Iran, Lebanon, Turkey, the UK, and West Germany.
He has been an advisor to the Commander-in-Chief of U.S. Forces in Europe, and
has traveled extensively in the Gulf and North Africa.
Other Essays by Dr. Cordesman
- "Developments
in Iraq at the End of 2003: Adapting U.S. Policy to Stay the
Course," by Anthony H. Cordesman, GulfWire Perspectives, January
7, 2004
- "Four
Wars and Counting: Rethinking the Strategic Meaning of the Iraq War,"
by Anthony H. Cordesman, GulfWire Perspectives, December 5, 2003
- "Iraq:
Too Uncertain to Call," by Anthony H. Cordesman, GulfWire
Perspectives, November 18, 2003
- "Saudi
Redeployment of the F-15 to Tabuk," by Anthony H. Cordesman,
Saudi-US Relations Information Service Item of Interest, November 1, 2003
- "Iranian
Security Threats and US Policy: Finding the Proper
Response," by Anthony H. Cordesman, GulfWire Perspectives,
October 28, 2003
- "What
is Next in Iraq? Military Developments, Military Requirements and
Armed Nation Building," by
Anthony H. Cordesman, GulfWire Perspectives, August 22, 2003
- "Saudi
Government Counterterrorism - Counter Extremism Actions," by
Anthony H. Cordesman, Saudi-US Relations Information Service Item of
Interest, August 4, 2003
- "Saudi
Arabia: Don't Let Bin Laden Win!", by Anthony H. Cordesman,
Saudi-American Forum Item of Interest, May 16, 2003
- "Postwar
Iraq: The New Old Middle East," by Anthony H. Cordesman, GulfWire
Perspectives, April 16, 2003
- "Iraq's
Warfighting Strategy," by Anthony H. Cordesman, GulfWire
Perspectives, March 11, 2003
- "Reforming
the Middle East: President Bush's Neo-Con Logic Versus Regional
Reality," by Anthony H. Cordesman, GulfWire Perspectives,
February 27, 2003
- "The
Great Iraq Missile Mystery," by Anthony H. Cordesman, GulfWire
Perspectives, February 26, 2003
- "Iraq
Security Roundtable at CSFS: A Discussion With Dr. Anthony
Cordesman," Center for Strategic and Future Studies, GulfWire
Perspectives, January 28, 2003
- "A
Coalition of the Unwilling: Arms Control as an Extension of War By
Other Means," By Anthony H. Cordesman, GulfWire Perspectives,
January 25, 2003
- "Is
Iraq In Material Breach? What Hans Blix, Colin Powell, And Jack Straw
Actually Said," By Anthony H. Cordesman, GulfWire Perspectives,
December 20, 2002
- "Saudi
Arabia: Opposition, Islamic Extremism And Terrorism," by Anthony
H. Cordesman, GulfWire Perspectives, December 1, 2002
- "Planning
For A Self-Inflicted Wound: U.S. Policy To Reshape A Post-Saddam
Iraq," by Anthony H. Cordesman, GulfWire Perspectives, November
24, 2002
- "The
West And The Arab World - Partnership Or A 'Clash Of Civilizations?'"
By Anthony H. Cordesman, GulfWire Perspectives, November 12, 2002
- "Strategy
In The Middle East: The Gap Between Strategic Theory And Operational
Reality," by Dr. Anthony H. Cordesman, GulfWire Perspectives,
October 22, 2002
- "A
Firsthand Look At Saudi Arabia Since 9-11," GulfWire's Interview
With Dr. Anthony Cordesman In Saudi Arabia, GulfWire Perspectives October
10, 2002
- "Escalating
To Nowhere: The Israeli And Palestinian Strategic Failure,"
By Anthony H. Cordesman, GulfWire Perspectives, April 8, 2002
- "Reforging
The U.S. And Saudi Strategic Partnership," by Dr. Anthony H.
Cordesman, GulfWire Perspectives, January 28, 2002
|