|
EDITOR'S NOTE:
This article originally appeared in the Terrorism
Monitor, Volume 2, Issue 13, on July 1, 2004. The Terrorism
Monitor is published by the Jamestown
Foundation.
Blackening the Face of Terrorism in Saudi Arabia
By Eric Watkins |
|
 Saudi
Arabia appears to have scored something of a propaganda coup in its war
against terrorism with the surrender of Othman al-Amri, an Islamist militant
hunted by security forces for more than a year and reported to be number 21
among 26 most-wanted men named by the Saudi interior ministry last December.
Amri's surrender came less than a week after Crown Prince Abdullah announced a
month-long amnesty aimed at ending a wave of Islamist attacks that have shaken
the Kingdom over the past year. Hardly had Amri turned himself in, than Saudi
authorities, attempting to build on their apparent success, announced a second
amnesty for ordinary citizens who possess unlicensed weapons.
The amnesties declared by the Saudi government clearly underscore an aspect of
the war on terrorism that has yet to be fully reported and understood. That
aspect is the psychological battle now being waged by both sides in an effort
to sway the hearts and minds of bystanders both at home and around the world
in one direction or the other.
| For their part, members of
the al-Qaeda terrorist network have been attempting to reach two main
audiences with their message. The terrorists clearly want to spread a
sense of apprehension amongst Westerners living in the Kingdom, and
frighten them into leaving. Underlying that strategy is the belief
that the departure of foreign experts will weaken the Saudi economy,
particularly its oil sector, which in turn could adversely affect the
world economy. For example, on May 1, al-Qaeda terrorists entered the
offices of oil contractor ABB Lummus Global Inc. in the Red Sea port
city of Yanbu,
killing six Westerners and a Saudi. Again, on May 29, more
terrorists went on a spree at an oil company and a residential
compound in Khobar,
killing another 22 people, 19 of them foreigners. |
"The
terrorists clearly want to spread a sense of apprehension amongst
Westerners living in the Kingdom, and frighten them into
leaving.." |
There is
little wonder that terrorists would target the Saudi oil industry, with oil
export revenues making up around 90-95% of total Saudi export earnings,
70%-80% of state revenues, and around 40% of the country's gross domestic
product (GDP). Internationally, according to the U.S. Department of Energy,
Saudi Arabia is a key oil supplier to the United States, and Europe, while
Asia especially China, Japan, and South Korea now takes more than 40% of Saudi
Arabia's crude oil exports, as well as the majority of its refined petroleum
product exports.
The recent terrorist attacks have indeed shaken confidence on the world's oil
markets. "The cornerstone of oil worries is supply disruption, and there
has been cause for alarm after the recent attacks in Saudi Arabia and
Iraq," said Peter Gignoux, senior oil advisor at New York-based GDP
Associates Inc. "Oil traders have vivid imaginations, and they will read
the worst possible into this," he said.
That view was underscored by the remarks of another industry expert about the
Yanbu attack. "I'm concerned that this is going to happen on a far bigger
scale," said a Saudi business consultant. The nightmare scenario is a
large attack at the main oil facilities across the country at the export
terminal of Ras Tanura, which can load as much as six million barrels per day
of oil for export, or at Abqaiq, which handles roughly two thirds of the
country's oil output. "Hitting Abqaiq would be catastrophic. It would
bring the kingdom to its knees," the consultant said. [1]
The effect of such attacks on oil prices is well documented. On June 1, the
UK's Press Association (PA) reported that "jittery world oil markets
opened today with strong price increases in the first significant trading
since a terror attack targeting Western oil workers left 22 people dead in the
Saudi oil hub." The PA went on to detail the effect on market prices.
"Brent crude oil prices for July delivery were up $1.82 a barrel, at
$38.40 and rising, in today's trading on the International Petroleum Exchange
in London," it said. The PA also reported that "light crude, in
after-hours electronic trading in New York, was also up more than $1, to
$41.07 per barrel over Friday's close."
The PA also noted the timing of the terrorist attack in Saudi Arabia, saying
it "came ahead of an Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries
meeting in Beirut "when ministers will debate a possible production
increase to try to bring already high-flying prices down." At their
meeting, OPEC members prompted by Saudi Arabia agreed to increase the group's
production ceiling by two million barrels a day in July and a further 500,000
barrels a day in August, if necessary, in an effort to bring down high prices.
Saudi authorities are working to counteract the effects of the terrorists'
propaganda campaign on the oil industry. To avoid an exodus of Western oil
expertise, Saudi authorities have been attempting to assure expatriate workers
of their safety in the Kingdom. At the same time, eyeing jittery world
markets, the Saudis have also insisted that their oil-based economy can be run
just as efficiently with or without Western petroleum expertise.
Abdallah Jum'ah, president and chief executive officer of the Saudi
Arabian Oil Co., said he could keep the country's oil flowing,
saying that the departure of some foreign workers couldn't be described as an
exodus and that security was good. "Has our production been affected by
the departure of some of our employees? The answer is no." And to
underscore his point, Jum'ah said Saudis make up some 86% of the total work
force of the company, which employs about 7,000 foreign workers, of whom 19%
are Americans. [2]
Such efforts by the Saudi government appear to be working. Indeed, within days
of the attack on Yanbu, Sumitomo Chemical Co. of Japan and state-owned Saudi
Arabian Oil Co. signed a Memorandum of Understanding for a 50-50 joint venture
to build a $4.3 billion refining-petrochemical complex at Rabigh. In launching
the project, SCC Pres. Hiromasa Yonekura, conceded that "the biggest
concern was country risk," but he said that SCC had concluded the risk
was "manageable." In addition to impacting world oil markets,
however, the terrorists also are eager to convince fellow Muslims not only of
the justness of their cause but also of their willingness to undertake direct
action in support of it. The most obvious way in which they have undertaken
this aspect of their propaganda offensive is through the kidnapping and
killing of expatriates along with widespread dissemination of these killings
in pictures over the Internet or on satellite television.
 To
a certain degree such public "executions" have found a sympathetic
audience. Shortly before U.S. engineer Paul
Johnson was beheaded by an al-Qaeda cell on June 19, some Saudis
spoke highly of his captors. "These (kidnappers) are holy warriors,
heroes, who never waver, even if they will fail," said Mizahen al-Etbi,
who added that "All Saudis hate Americans, not only these heroes."
Another Saudi said, "the Americans deserve what they're getting for
shedding Arab and Muslim blood all over the world. Plain and simple, they are
our enemies." [3]
But the terrorists seem to have overplayed their hand by their very public and
gruesome documentation of Johnson's beheading. Indeed, just prior to the
beheading of Johnson, political analyst Jasser Abdullah al-Jasser said the
terrorists "have less support and they are losing more and more every
day." He went on to predict that "they will have no sympathy
whatever if they kill this man" and that "even those who used to
support them are not ready now to back the killing of foreigners." [4]
| The murder of foreigners
has certainly become an issue in the world press, including much of
the Muslim world, and it has decidedly worked against the interests of
the terrorists. Perhaps the most incisive view in that regard was
issued by the Iranian newspaper, Tehran Sharq: "The way these
incidents are tainting the image and credibility of every Muslim and
Muslim state of the world is incomparable to any other subversive
action that could be taken against Islam. Perhaps no intentional plan
could demonstrate such a violent, cruel, and bloodthirsty image of the
people of the Middle East and the Muslims of the world with such low
costs." [5] |
"The
murder of foreigners .. has decidedly worked against the interests of
the terrorists.." |
Some
papers in the Muslim world such as al-Akhbar (Cairo) have taken that argument
one step farther, and suggested that al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden remains
in the pay of the Central Intelligence Agency. [6] While such arguments may
seem fanciful to readers in the West, they none the less carry great
significance in the Arab and Islamic world, where they suggest that the tide
of public opinion is beginning to turn against the al-Qaeda terrorist network.
Very clearly, a new battle in the war on terrorism, a psychological battle, has
now been joined in the Arab and Islamic world. That battle has been
underscored by the leading Saudi paper al-Sharq al-Awsat, which not only
predicts the demise of al-Qaeda, but also refers to the group's activities as
"black terrorism". [7]
Notes:
-
Watkins,
Eric. "ABB Lummus vacates Yanbu; Saudis vow to crush
terrorists." Oil & Gas Journal. 10 May 04.
-
"Saudi
Aramco: Departure Of Foreign Workers Not An Exodus." Dow Jones
Newswires. 28 Jun 04.
-
"Saudi
Campaign Against Extremism Having Little Effect." Dow Jones
Newswires. 19 Jun 04.
-
Ibid
-
Rustayi,
Farzaneh. "Separating From Fundamentalists." Tehran Sharq. 23
Jun 04.
-
Qandil,
Muhammad Wajdi. "Bin Laden and U.S. Intelligence!" Cairo al-Akhbar.
23 Jun 04. "Al-Qaeda operations raise a great deal of doubts about
the leadership of this organization and its activities: For whom does it
work? And in whose interest does it carry out these attacks against
civilian targets in Arab countries, particularly in Saudi Arabia?"
-
Al-Rab'i,
Ahmad. "Terrorism and its Environment in the Kingdom". al-Sharq
al-Awsat. 21 Jun 04.
Eric
Watkins is the first Western person ever allowed to reside in Yemen as a
foreign correspondent. He lived in the country from 1989 to 1994, witnessing
the unification of the country as well as its near dis-unification in the 1994
civil war. Watkins, a US journalist based in Cyprus, holds a PhD in
Comparative Literature from the University of California, San Diego.
Source:
The
Jamestown Foundation
|
PRINT
OUT