Editor's Note:

A year ago the Democratic Party was enjoying the afterglow of success in the 2006 US Congressional elections, based in large measure on the question of Iraq and the prospects for limiting or ending US troop presence there. On November 29, 2006 Nawaf Obaid, Managing Director of the Saudi National Security Assessment Project (a government consultancy based in Riyadh), wrote a remarkably frank oped in the Washington Post titled, "Stepping Into Iraq - Saudi Arabia Will Protect Sunnis if the U.S. Leaves." The oped was disavowed by the Saudi government and Prince Turki al Faisal, then Saudi Ambassador to the United States, terminated Mr. Obaid's consultancy.

Two week later Helene Cooper writing in the New York Times reported, "Saudi Arabia has told the Bush administration that it might provide financial backing to Iraqi Sunnis in any war against Iraq�s Shiites if the United States pulls its troops out of Iraq, according to American and Arab diplomats.

The article cited the case of Mr. Obaid's oped and the fallout from his assertions:

With that background in mind we offer for your consideration an oped by Mr. Obaid, published on-line through Middle East Times on November 13, 2007. In the essay, Mr. Obaid outlines the strategic position enjoyed by Saudi Arabia and the influence it exerts in regional and global affairs.

Assessing Saudi Power
Nawaf Obaid

Saudi Arabia celebrated the 75th anniversary of its founding [in September], a milestone that provides an opportunity for assessing the kingdom's standing in the international arena. 

The leadership of King Abdullah, along with the windfall of vast oil revenues, has brought Saudi Arabia unprecedented influence and made it the key power broker in the region. King Abdullah's Israeli-Palestinian peace plan is still the most viable; and the successful � if ultimately short-lived � brokering of the Hamas-Fatah unity government shows that the kingdom has the ability to do what no other power can. Saudi Arabia has invested billions into the rebuilding of Lebanon and remains a key supporter of the Siniora government. Also, it has taken the lead in organizing an Arab and Muslim response to help end fighting in the Sudan and Somalia. Finally, the kingdom quietly diffused a potentially explosive situation in Pakistan [September 10] by arranging for the return of former Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif to Jeddah. 

These signs all point to the fact that the kingdom has become the de facto leader of the Muslim world, and not only because it is the birthplace of Islam and home of its two holiest cities. Saudi Arabia has by far the largest economy in the Middle East and North Africa region - some $347 billion at the end of 2006. The kingdom's economy is substantially larger than Iran's, the region's penultimate economic power. In fact, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the kingdom's GDP dwarfs Iran's $242 billion. (The Central Bank of Iran estimates the Iranian GDP at 20 percent less than the IMF.) 

Initial estimates for 2007 by the IMF show the Saudi GDP surpassing that of Turkey by several billion dollars, claiming the top spot as the largest economy in the Muslim world. Furthermore, the kingdom is by far the largest exporter and holder of the largest trade and account balance surpluses in the Muslim world. Finally, SAMA, the Saudi central bank, is the second largest net foreign asset holder of all Muslim countries, behind only the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA), with an estimated position of $320 billion. (The kingdom also holds additional reserves that are not made public for national security reasons.) If current foreign assets keep increasing at their recent pace, SAMA's foreign position will surpass ADIA's by 2012. 

The Saudi kingdom is the world's largest producer, exporter and holder of oil reserves, and finds itself in the unique position of having about 90 percent of the world's spare capacity, which makes its influence in today's international economic system difficult to overstate. Saudi Aramco has a sustained production capacity of between 10.9 to 11.1 million barrels per day (mb/d). In contrast, Russia, holder of the world's second largest sustained production capacity, has a potential of between 9.4 to 9.6 mb/d. Within OPEC, Saudi Arabia's dominance is complete. The kingdom pumps two and a half times more oil than OPEC's second largest producer, Iran, which has had great difficulty keeping its sustained production capacity at 3.9 mb/d. Saudi Arabia's strength becomes even clearer when taking into consideration the fact that the kingdom exports four times more oil than Iran. Translated into cash, Saudi Arabia's revenue from petroleum exports averaged about $185 billion in 2006, while Iran collected an estimated $51 billion, a bit less than Abu Dhabi, and even Kuwait. 

The Saudi king's official title is Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques, and considering the pre-eminent role religion plays in the region, this fact adds enormously to the clout of the kingdom. In fact, its religious centrality among the world's 1.35 billion Muslims (85 percent to 90 percent Sunni versus 10 percent to 15 percent Shia) is unmatched. The legitimacy that being the guardian of Islam's two holiest cities provides to the Saudi leadership is invaluable in today's conflict ridden region, and gives Saudi Arabia leverage in its goal of defusing the numerous crises engulfing the Muslim world. From Lebanon and Palestine, Pakistan, Iraq, Yemen, Sudan and now Somalia, the kingdom's influence is clear. 

Saudi Arabia's new role comes with expanded responsibilities, especially in terms of economic aid and development. The kingdom has emerged as the leading single donor to all Muslim countries (excluding Iraq). The kingdom committed an initial $1.55 billion in financial aid to Lebanon - a $550 million grant to help rebuild damaged infrastructure and another $1 billion to boost currency reserves - with an additional $1.1 billion promised at the latest Paris III conference. In addition, $500 million for economic aid to Palestine is in the custody of the Islamic Development Bank, and an estimated $1 billion in additional funds has been earmarked for Palestine and will be disbursed when the political situation allows. Yemen has been granted $1 billion to help boost its economy and Pakistan $500 million (with a potential $1 billion more in the pipeline). Finally, an economic aid package of oil and loans worth several billion dollars for Jordan is under consideration. 

In addition to these expenditures, Saudi Arabia is heavily investing in its own defense (an essential step, considering the botched US invasion of Iraq has made the region significantly less stable). On top of the estimated annual $25 billion military budget, approximately $60 billion is being spent over the next several years as part of the new Saudi Defense Doctrine. This program will expand, upgrade and maintain the various armed services of the Ministry of Defense, Ministry of Interior, and National Guard. This includes the recently inaugurated Phase 1 of the Salaam defense deal between Saudi Arabia and the United Kingdom, worth $8.9 billion (a portion of a package worth approximately $20 billion). An upcoming military deal with the United States will be even larger. 

Thus, on the kingdom's 75th anniversary, it has become clear that Saudi Arabia's will to power is real, and stems from the kingdom's deep historical roots and ideology as professed by its founder, King Abdulaziz. King Abdullah and Crown Prince Sultan have earned Saudi Arabia a leadership role in the region and have ensured that it is the preeminent Sunni Muslim power. By providing much needed aid and backing of various Muslim and Arab causes, the Saudi leadership has earned wide Muslim and Arab support. The mandate for King Abdullah now is to consolidate Saudi Arabia's regional standing on the world stage. 

Nawaf Obaid is a Saudi Strategic Affairs Adviser, based in Riyadh. 

Mr. Obaid's op-ed appeared at Middle East Times on-line on November 13, 2007