Our last conversation with Dr. Rachel Bronson, came about a month after the April 2005 summit meeting between King Abdullah, then Crown Prince, and President Bush in Crawford, Texas. She noted the relationship was undergoing repairs but it remained troubled, drawing on her conversations at the 2005 Jeddah Economic Forum (JEF) and the research she had completed for a book on US-Saudi relations. Dr. Bronson, Senior Fellow and Director for Middle East and Gulf Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, recently talked with SUSRIS and provided insights from the 2006 JEF and views on the state of reforms in the Kingdom, developments in the region and the state of the relationship between America and Saudi Arabia.

Today, in part one of our interview, we discuss the Jeddah Economic Forum and developments in the Kingdom of continuing interest to SUSRIS readers, including economic, political and social reforms.  Tomorrow, in part two, we will look at international developments, including: US foreign policy and defense issues in the region; expansion of trade and political relationships between Saudi Arabia and China; and doing business as the Kingdom experiences a new economic boom. We are sure you will find these discussions frank, thought provoking and enlightening. 

We will also provide a Book Note with information on Dr. Bronson's newly released book, "Thicker Than Oil: America's Uneasy Partnership with Saudi Arabia."

Patrick W. Ryan

The Time is Now in Saudi Arabia: 
A Conversation with Rachel Bronson
Part 1

SUSRIS: Thank you for taking time to talk with us today. Let's start with your recent trip to Saudi Arabia and participation in the Jeddah Economic Forum. What is the headline you would report from the event?

Dr. Rachel Bronson:  Jeddah in particular and Saudi Arabia in general are in a race against time and the time that they are racing against is King Abdullah's biological clock. This was starkly obvious in a number of ways at the Forum. For instance, a lot of proposals had overly ambitious deadlines of being completed by 2010. That's because many realize that there is an opportunity for creativity and momentum that may not be there ten years from now. The best example of this is King Abdullah Economic City. I don�t believe ground is yet broken on the project but the plans are for people to begin moving in in 24-36 months. This is a massive $30 billion dollar project to create a -- a Dubai on the Red Sea -- if you will. King Abdullah has given investors and developers the go ahead for this as one way to motivate further economic growth, address Saudi Arabia�s deep education problems, spur employment, and so forth. It�s ambitious. It�s questionable whether it will work. And it�s expected to all happen within just a few years. For most developers the notion that you can do this in a few years is somewhat absurd but I think in Saudi Arabia at the moment everything is on a very quick timetable. The question, for many, is who knows if King Abdullah�s successor will be as interested in supporting such a project. 

SUSRIS: Is your assessment that Saudis are on a timetable based on political, economic or social considerations?

Bronson: I think it�s a combination of all of them. Politically, economically and socially many things are in flux. But the leading driver, in my mind, is the opportunities presented by King Abdullah that will not necessarily continue after his reign. I think reformers, or pragmatists, or whatever you want to call them, hope that if they can establish facts on the ground, a future king, even one who is not as supportive as King Abdullah, will realize it's in his interest to continue in the current direction. It�s a risky bet, but a bet many are taking.

SUSRIS: What are your impressions of the changes in leadership and the direction of the government since Abdullah ascended to the throne in August?

Bronson: I think King Abdullah has broad appeal. Even in the Eastern Province among the Shia, they realize he is about as good as they are going to get. He has had Shia sitting down with Sunni in the National Dialogue. People in the Eastern Province are mindful of the fact that there hasn�t been a lot of follow-up but he will talk to Shia. He isn�t seen as being anti Shia as are some, Prince Nayef in particular, and so he has broad appeal among many. He is pious. He is viewed as a man of the people even though he is a member of the royal family. Even though he has been in politics his whole life he is accessible. He was the one who a number of years ago showed up in a poor section of Riyadh and pointed out there is poverty in the kingdom. That played really well at home, although there�s been very little follow up as one human rights activist pointed out to me. He has tried to clean up some of the corruption and tried to reign in some of the benefits of the royal family. Across the board there is a sense that things are better under him and that he understands a lot of the challenges Saudi Arabia faces. However, he is 82 years old and won�t live forever. People understand that, and that was the sense I got. The Shia activists still have real concerns. They pointed out to me that some of the more awful statements about Christians and Jews were removed from textbooks because Americans were looking but none of the slanderous anti-Shi�a commentary has been removed. Nobody seems to care about that. So there are still real problems -- it's not like everything is perfect but there is a sense that this is about a good as it gets. 

SUSRIS: Tell us more about the National Dialogue. What's your understanding of how it works and its impact? 

Bronson: Saudi Arabia just had the fifth National Dialogue in December. It�s a series initiated by then Crown Prince Abdullah in June of 2003 that brings together different members of society to discuss different issues. They are very useful because Saudis are usually not brought together in anything but business and religion. They are now being brought together in the National Dialogue. The obvious problem with it is that nothing concrete seems to happen after the sessions. Also every National Dialogue session has different people attending it so there is no momentum reaching out across the Saudi population. That being said, being invited to the National Dialogue does empower people for a number of years after they attend. It gives them standing in society. In Saudi Arabia the rule, well there�s never any rule and people have to figure out what to do. So if King Abdullah allows Sunni and Shia to sit down and talk that becomes an issue for discussion among the Saudis. If he brings youth together the problems of youth then become an issue for society to grapple with. Nothing concrete happens, it's true, but it does allow for a lot of smaller things at local level that might not happen if you hadn�t convened that National Dialogue. 

SUSRIS: So these are building blocks of civil society?

Bronson: It's more of a signal for what people can talk about -- which in Saudi Arabia is important. I was a real skeptic about it. I really believed it was just window dressing -- a showpiece for the West until Saudis told me repeatedly that this is how things are done in their society and it is actually very important to be invited. It mattered to them and it allowed them to do things at home that they might not have otherwise done. And when enough people tell you that you start to believe it. 

SUSRIS: Let's talk about highlights from the Jeddah Economic Forum. What was noteworthy among the presentations? What were people talking about?

Bronson: The presentation that seemed to capture everybody�s attention was the President of Ireland Mary McAleese who spoke about Ireland�s impressive economic experience. She stressed education and the development of human capital, something that many Saudis believe is the key to unlocking their own successful economic future. 

SUSRIS: You know she was criticized in the press in Ireland for going to the forum given the attention to women in society in Saudi Arabia. How was she received considering she is a female head of state? What was the reaction to her presence, her presentation?

Bronson: First of all a man asked her a question, not a question but a comment about how the role of the women is to be at home and devote themselves to family and how they shouldn�t have an outside role. He went on and on. She listened very politely and then said from her understanding the Prophet Mohammed's wife was a businesswomen in her own right. And the applause just erupted on the women�s side, they were so delighted by that answer. Here was someone who had sat through that rant by a man, the kind of rants they have to listen to all the time, and she politely listened to it and responded with a reference from the Koran on their behalf. It was enormously inspiring to the women in the audience. And they were really appreciative of it. 

Another big event was the speech of the Minister of Information and Culture [Madani] who argued that there was no law in the kingdom stating that women couldn�t drive. It created a buzz, one that had reached the Eastern Province by the time I got there a few days later. Now, in many ways his speech was disingenuous. True there�s no law, but there�s a fatwa signed by none other than the late Grand Mufti bin Baz that has been around since 1991. In many ways it is much more binding on women than a law. But everyone recognized it as a trial balloon, and perhaps an effort to begin conditioning people that such a change is coming.

SUSRIS: How did the women you talked to judge the pace of social reform?

Bronson: Here's something else that comes back to the race against time. Last year when I was in the kingdom no one wanted to talk about women driving. "You Americans, all you want to talk about is women driving.� �Driving is not an issue.� �We lost that issue in 1991.� �We want to talk about education and job opportunities.� �Driving will come at some point." Over the course of the last year that has changed 180 degrees. Driving was what all the women were talking about.

SUSRIS: Was that the result of Minister Madani's speech?

Bronson: Yes, that set them off but I even heard it in the Eastern Province. The reason I think is because it is on the table again, both from his speech but also from the King�s daughter who has made comments. Saudis who have met the King said he believes driving will happen in their lifetimes. The animation of the debate was so interesting to me only because I had been roundly chastised that this was not the key issue for Saudi women. I bought it hook, line and sinker last year, and this year in the west and east, it seemed to be a major point of conversation. 

SUSRIS: Do you think people were concealing their real concerns last year or do you think things actually changed?

Bronson: I think that the accession of the king has made a real difference. I think they are enthusiastic about the moment and just don�t know how long it will last. I sensed that there was concern that it won�t last beyond King Abdullah.

SUSRIS: What were the attitudes in the Eastern Province on the reform issues you discussed with Saudis at the JEF? 

Bronson: Same in the Eastern Province. When I was in Damman they were going into their own chamber of commerce elections. I met with several of the women candidates. None won. But they were so enthusiastic and so excited. Again it's a small cross section. It's a small group that I met with and I don�t want to suggest that this is representative of the entire country. This is the elite and they are excited. They were optimistic that even if they didn�t win they would be better organized next time. We will see whether or not women get appointed -- there is now the hope that someone will get appointed. 

SUSRIS: What were people saying at the Jeddah Economic Forum about economic reform?

Bronson: Diversification of the economy was a big topic, along with pride in the fact that Saudi Arabia�s private sector is growing so quickly. The other economic issue was that Asia, particularly China, is becoming increasingly invested in the Saudi economy while Asian interest is not being matched with U.S. enthusiasm.

Education was important. There was a lot of talk about visas -- a huge issue. The King established 5,000 scholarships for students to study in the US but the visa section at the US Consulate in Jeddah is closed. So there are troubles getting visas and that�s really irritating people there. Now you talk to the Consulate and they correctly point out that the embassy [Riyadh] is processing ten times the number of visa requests compared to last year with the same staff and reduced facilities. But it is a huge problem. The King has offered these scholarships and it wasn't coordinated well with the US. Now we are having trouble processing visas and it continues to rankle and they continue to talk about it. 

SUSRIS: Did the American diplomatic personnel have a forecast about opening processing sections and getting back to normal?

Bronson: There in a bit of standoff with the Saudi government as a result of the terrorist attacks [December 2004] that targeted the Consulate in Jeddah. The Ambassador doesn�t want to open the visa section until they close the street that the Consulate is on. But it�s on a major street in Jeddah so the Saudis don�t want to close the street. I've been on the street -- it's right in the heart of Jeddah. So they want the street closed after the attack last year, but the Saudis don�t want to close the street. There�s the standoff. 

SUSRIS: Was there anything else you observed at the JEF you'd like to share?

Bronson: You know something that fascinated me was how the optimism of change was reflected in women�s abayas. Compared to last year there were far more colors -- reds and pinks -- and more detailing -- butterfly appliqu�s, and so forth. I think people are feeling that they have slightly more air to breathe.

Another thing I noticed was that I thought security was about 1/8th as tight this year of what it had been last year. People who were there for the first time were remarking about how much security there was, but it was nothing like it was last year. I was a bit concerned about that because I was concerned there might be bit of overconfidence. You know they have been very successful in rolling up cells and breaking up groups, going after the terrorists. And I was just worried that it might symbolize a decreased state of alert on these issues. But this is very impressionistic. It was disconcerting to see the metal detectors on the side, until the conference was well underway, or having the metal detectors go off and still be waved through. I am sure there was significant security behind the scenes but it was something I did notice being different from last year.

I was somewhat optimistic about the Jeddah Economic Forum. In some ways the whole point of the JEF is to break through the barriers and certainly it does. You have Americans there interacting with the Saudis in a forum to try to heal those rifts. The longstanding relations are still there and the old time proponents of American partnership are still there. They are talking about the relationship but it didn�t feel like we were making a huge impact in Saudi Arabia. 

There was a lot of "the west this" and "the west that." "There is no understanding of Muslim culture." "There is no understanding of Saudi Arabia." "There is no understanding of Arabs." "You know you guys don�t understand us, we understand you." I just thought there was a lot of work to do. 

SUSRIS: So the JEF goal of celebrating common grounds, there wasn�t much to be found?

Bronson: I saw a lot of tension. Obviously the individual conversations were wonderful and you could sit down and have lunch and talk about these things. But even the Minister of Culture and Information was talking about the west, the west, the west, in terms of them and us. This was the Minister of Culture and Information. He received much attention, rightfully so, after his comment on women driving. Maybe he had to do that to protect himself to make such a provocative statement. You know, I thought his speech was not helpful. It continued to reinforce this issue of east-west, them-us.

TOMORROW: International affairs, regional relationships and defense issues, Saudi-China ties expanding.

Bio: Dr. Rachel Bronson

• Book Info - Thicker Than Oil: America's Uneasy Partnership with Saudi Arabia - Rachel Bronson

• Bronson: Saudis �Deeply Concerned� Over Iran�s Nuclear Program - CFR Interview - Apr. 3, 2006

More on SUSRIS:

• Jeddah Economic Forum 2006 - Press Summary - SUSRIS NID - Feb. 14, 2006

• Jeddah Economic Forum 2006 - SUSRIS IOI - Feb. 10, 2006

• Jeddah Economic Forum 2005 Update - SUSRIS NID - Feb. 20, 2005

• Jeddah Economic Forum 2005 - SUSRIS IOI - Feb 18, 2005

• Top World Leaders to Address Jeddah Economic Forum - SUSRIS IOI - Jan. 29, 2005

• On Relations and Reforms: A Conversation with Rachel Bronson - SUSRIS Interview - May 31, 2005

• The Need for Education Reform - "Saudi System is the Problem" - by Rachel Bronson and Isobel Coleman - SUSRIS IOI - May 31, 2005

• President Roosevelt and King Abdulaziz - The Meeting at Great Bitter Lake: A Conversation with Rachel Bronson - SUSRIS Interview - Mar. 17, 2005

• How Does the Saudi Relationship With the Bush Family Affect U.S. Foreign Policy? - An E-mail Debate between Craig Unger and Rachel Bronson - SUSRIS IOI - Aug. 4, 2004

• U.S.-Saudi Relations: Online Discussion with Rachel Bronson - SUSRIS IOI - Jul. 13, 2004

• Saudi Arabia in the Balance - Political Economy, Society, Foreign Affairs - SUSRIS Book Note - Nov. 27, 2005

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