SUSRIS - Dr. Rachel Bronson Interview - The Time is Now in Saudi Arabia

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Item of Interest
April 27, 2006

A session in progress at the Jeddah Economic Forum 2006. (Photo: Rachel Bronson)

The Time is Now in Saudi Arabia:
A Conversation with Rachel Bronson
Part 2

Editor's Note

Today we present part two of our interview with Dr. Rachel Bronson. In part one she talked about developments inside the Kingdom including social, political and economic reforms as well as discussions at the recent Jeddah Economic Forum and the National Dialogue. Part two addresses international issues confronting the relationship between Saudi Arabia and the United States.

Patrick W. Ryan

The Time is Now in Saudi Arabia:
A Conversation with Rachel Bronson
Part 2

SUSRIS: King Abdullah's first trip abroad as head of state was to China and other Asian stops. What�s your impression about Saudi-Chinese relations specifically, and in general the attention being given to Asia?

Dr. Rachel Bronson: I think they are following their market. Their market is with Asia, and Asia is booming. They would be silly not to be exploring opportunities there. I do believe it is partially a response to the eroding US-Saudi special relationship. Economic realities are trumping the political relationship.

SUSRIS: How are these new realities playing out in the relationship? Can Saudi Arabia forsake the US for China?

Bronson: I don�t think they are forsaking the US for China. I think that they are absolutely correct when they say economically this is the rational thing to do. However, 20 years ago, even ten years ago, economic rationality wasn�t their key concern -- political rationality was, and that led them to the US. Interest in China does suggest in part a continued frustration with the state of US-Saudi relations, and when the President in the State of the Union address talked about our addiction to oil and cutting reliance on Mideast supplies it didn�t help things.

SUSRIS: Was there any fallout from that comment?

Bronson: Yes, it wasn�t lost on the Saudis -- this was another jab. It came up in conversation as a recent example of just one more thing. The [Danish] cartoons issue came up a lot. I would say that that was a topic that came up repeatedly. People interpreted the cartoons issue as freedom run amok. I think the Saudi government helped bolster this interpretation and citizens bought it.

SUSRIS: What was your impression about the level of US business presence in Saudi Arabia?

Bronson: I did get the sense that there is concern that while Saudi Arabia is booming economically the US isn�t playing. I think that was a concern among the Saudi business community and the traditionally pro-American crowd. There were concerns that the US isn�t interested in the boom and if we are so worried about Asia why aren�t we competing with Asia. This is all over the Gulf and Saudi Arabia The American response was by and large that the kingdom still makes it very difficult to get visas, is hard to get spouses over, is still bureaucratically difficult and there are easier places for businesses to operate. There was a concern that the US was not engaging the Saudis with as much interest as China.

SUSRIS: What is the state of play for Saudi Arabia vis a vis the United States and Iraq?

Bronson: I think the Saudis have written off the American effort in Iraq. I think they believe that it has failed and it is just a matter of time before Iraq deteriorates into civil war, if it�s not already in one. And they are trying to figure out what to do if and when that situation occurs. That is not from JEF but from other conversations.

SUSRIS: Do you see a more active Saudi role in dealing with the situation in Iraq?

Bronson: I think they are going to take a more active role in the sense that from the beginning they had a very hands off approach. They had only something to lose by getting involved. Their closest ties are with the Sunnis and if they were seen interacting with the Sunnis they would be blamed for stoking sectarian conflict. You know that in the last couple of months the US has asked them to reach out -- from my understanding -- to the Sunnis. They started doing that, reaching out and using their tribal connections in Iraq to see what is going on and so they are much more involved.

I think the Saudis are trying to figure out -- and it is their belief that it will only get worse -- how they should play it when all of this goes south. I think the attack in the Eastern Province [Abqaiq oil facility] plays into the situation. The timing of that will very much worry the Saudis as to whether or not it is tied to events in Iraq. I may play into the fear that the chaos in Iraq will spill over into the kingdom. They feel that this may be the first clear example that it could happen. I am sure that they are devoting a lot of attention to figuring out who was behind it -- what organizations were behind this and the timing will make them nervous.

SUSRIS: That leads us to another serious defense issue on the minds of American and Saudi strategists -- Iran. Where do you see Saudi Arabia's interests in the current Iranian situation?

Bronson: I think the Saudis are extremely worried about the Iranians on a whole host of topics. It's one of the few issues still pushing the US and Saudi Arabia closer together. Even leaving aside WMD, the Saudis look around their region and they see Iran's growing presence in Iraq and Afghanistan, continued presence in Lebanon and now clear opportunities in Palestine. A lot of the debates about whether Saudi Arabia will or will not fund Hamas has as much to do for the Saudis about Iranian presence there as it does other issues. In terms of nuclear weapons they are very worried about a nuclear Iran and have made statements about a nuclear free Arabian or Persian Gulf. They�ve narrowed their diplomatic rhetoric from a focus on a nuclear free Middle East to a nuclear free Gulf, for obvious reasons having everything to do with Iran.

SUSRIS: Let's talk about the relationship between the United States and Saudi Arabia. Tell us your assessment of the current state of play on both sides. Are people less understanding of each other or more understanding? Has the relationship transitioned from the post-9/11 period to some new phase?

Bronson: When Saudis look around the region they see it as a mess and they see the US as a contributor to that. They see Lebanon as a mess. They see Iraq as a mess. They see Iran on the move. Nothing looks good. Outside the booming economy based on high oil prices, the region seems on fire and the US has been a participant in that.

Still some things are changing: the new visas, the new scholarships -- you have huge turnouts to take up those scholarships to study in the US and I think that is a good thing. I do think we have to give attention to individual grants that going to universities and partnering with American schools on education � where we continue to have a brand name that is golden. But in terms of the regional politics the US is blamed for everything that is going wrong, and a lot is going wrong in the region.

SUSRIS: So it�s a mixed record but the attitudes toward American foreign policy continue to be negative?

Bronson: Yes it's continuing in the negative and the Saudis are very mindful of that. They continue to see Saudi bashing in the American media. There are a lot of complaints about the media and President Bush�s State of the Union statement on oil just fed into it.

SUSRIS: What other issues did people want to talk about?

Bronson: To me, we really started with it. It is really the headline to me. I think Saudis feel they are in a race against time and you really feel it when you are there. I think a lot of interesting things are happening at local levels but I think they face enormous challenges. And I don�t know if they will be able to overcome it all. Domestically, they�ve got huge challenges that they know about and are trying to address piecemeal.

One of the things we didn�t talk about and it is sort of an answer to the question, what are people talking about now. It�s the stock market, that�s what people are talking about now. There is a huge oil boom going on in Saudi Arabia and they are investing in the region and the region is booming in many ways. That�s what people are talking about. They are investing in the stock market. They are getting rich off the stock market. That is a huge focus of people's time and energy. It is exciting fun. Now that was a huge conversation. [The Saudi bourse, the Tadawul All-Share Index, experienced several sharp declines subsequent to SUSRIS talking with Dr. Bronson.]

Compared to where the Saudis were ten years ago it is a good moment. That�s the sense that I got from them. Certainly when they look around the region that seems so abysmal maybe they are on the right track. The US revolutionary rhetoric is not the speed or direction that they want to pursue. They are going to go at their own speed and in their own way whether or not that is fast enough, Americans don�t think it is but we haven�t gotten a lot right in the region lately.

SUSRIS: What do you think the United State should be doing to assist? What do Saudis think the US should be doing?

Bronson: You can focus on education. You can focus on trading. But my sense was this was very much a Saudi story right now. They have the money to do it. They have the political opportunity to do it. And I think, more than I did last year the, they are focused on doing what needs to be done. It is very much a Saudi story and they will do it at their own pace in their own way.

SUSRIS: You sound optimistic.

Bronson: Yeah, I am because they are. I think they have a lot of challenges to face but this is an optimistic moment and people are enthusiastic. It is going to be interesting to see how it plays out in the next couple of years.

SUSRIS: Tell us about your new book.

Bronson: The book is called "Thicker than Oil, Americas Uneasy Partnership with Saudi Arabia." It covers the history of US-Saudi relations from 1945 to present,. It looks at how important oil was to the relationship but also how important shared strategic interests were. Both the Americans and Saudis had overlapping strategic interests until the Cold War ended. And then in the 1990�s the relationship deteriorated obviously bottoming out in 2001. That leads to the challenges we face in the future.

SUSRIS: We look forward to reading it. Thank you again for taking time to talk today about your impressions of developments in the kingdom and the state of US-Saudi relations.

Bronson: You are welcome.

Bio: Dr. Rachel Bronson

The Time is Now in Saudi Arabia: A Conversation with Rachel Bronson - Part 1

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