Our last conversation with Dr. Rachel Bronson, came about a month after the April 2005 summit meeting between King Abdullah, then Crown Prince, and President Bush in Crawford, Texas. She noted the relationship was undergoing repairs but it remained troubled, drawing on her conversations at the 2005 Jeddah Economic Forum (JEF) and the research she had completed for a book on US-Saudi relations. Dr. Bronson, Senior Fellow and Director for Middle East and Gulf Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, recently talked with SUSRIS and provided insights from the 2006 JEF and views on the state of reforms in the Kingdom, developments in the region and the state of the relationship between America and Saudi Arabia.

Patrick W. Ryan

The Time is Now in Saudi Arabia: 
A Conversation with Rachel Bronson

SUSRIS: Thank you for taking time to talk with us today. Let's start with your recent trip to Saudi Arabia and participation in the Jeddah Economic Forum. What is the headline you would report from the event?

Dr. Rachel Bronson:  Jeddah in particular and Saudi Arabia in general are in a race against time and the time that they are racing against is King Abdullah's biological clock. This was starkly obvious in a number of ways at the Forum. For instance, a lot of proposals had overly ambitious deadlines of being completed by 2010. That's because many realize that there is an opportunity for creativity and momentum that may not be there ten years from now. The best example of this is King Abdullah Economic City. I don�t believe ground is yet broken on the project but the plans are for people to begin moving in in 24-36 months. This is a massive $30 billion dollar project to create a -- a Dubai on the Red Sea -- if you will. King Abdullah has given investors and developers the go ahead for this as one way to motivate further economic growth, address Saudi Arabia�s deep education problems, spur employment, and so forth. It�s ambitious. It�s questionable whether it will work. And it�s expected to all happen within just a few years. For most developers the notion that you can do this in a few years is somewhat absurd but I think in Saudi Arabia at the moment everything is on a very quick timetable. The question, for many, is who knows if King Abdullah�s successor will be as interested in supporting such a project. 

SUSRIS: Is your assessment that Saudis are on a timetable based on political, economic or social considerations?

Bronson: I think it�s a combination of all of them. Politically, economically and socially many things are in flux. But the leading driver, in my mind, is the opportunities presented by King Abdullah that will not necessarily continue after his reign. I think reformers, or pragmatists, or whatever you want to call them, hope that if they can establish facts on the ground, a future king, even one who is not as supportive as King Abdullah, will realize it's in his interest to continue in the current direction. It�s a risky bet, but a bet many are taking.

SUSRIS: What are your impressions of the changes in leadership and the direction of the government since Abdullah ascended to the throne in August?

Bronson: I think King Abdullah has broad appeal. Even in the Eastern Province among the Shia, they realize he is about as good as they are going to get. He has had Shia sitting down with Sunni in the National Dialogue. People in the Eastern Province are mindful of the fact that there hasn�t been a lot of follow-up but he will talk to Shia. He isn�t seen as being anti Shia as are some, Prince Nayef in particular, and so he has broad appeal among many. He is pious. He is viewed as a man of the people even though he is a member of the royal family. Even though he has been in politics his whole life he is accessible. He was the one who a number of years ago showed up in a poor section of Riyadh and pointed out there is poverty in the kingdom. That played really well at home, although there�s been very little follow up as one human rights activist pointed out to me. He has tried to clean up some of the corruption and tried to reign in some of the benefits of the royal family. Across the board there is a sense that things are better under him and that he understands a lot of the challenges Saudi Arabia faces. However, he is 82 years old and won�t live forever. People understand that, and that was the sense I got. The Shia activists still have real concerns. They pointed out to me that some of the more awful statements about Christians and Jews were removed from textbooks because Americans were looking but none of the slanderous anti-Shi�a commentary has been removed. Nobody seems to care about that. So there are still real problems -- it's not like everything is perfect but there is a sense that this is about a good as it gets. 

SUSRIS: Tell us more about the National Dialogue. What's your understanding of how it works and its impact? 

Bronson: Saudi Arabia just had the fifth National Dialogue in December. It�s a series initiated by then Crown Prince Abdullah in June of 2003 that brings together different members of society to discuss different issues. They are very useful because Saudis are usually not brought together in anything but business and religion. They are now being brought together in the National Dialogue. The obvious problem with it is that nothing concrete seems to happen after the sessions. Also every National Dialogue session has different people attending it so there is no momentum reaching out across the Saudi population. That being said, being invited to the National Dialogue does empower people for a number of years after they attend. It gives them standing in society. In Saudi Arabia the rule, well there�s never any rule and people have to figure out what to do. So if King Abdullah allows Sunni and Shia to sit down and talk that becomes an issue for discussion among the Saudis. If he brings youth together the problems of youth then become an issue for society to grapple with. Nothing concrete happens, it's true, but it does allow for a lot of smaller things at local level that might not happen if you hadn�t convened that National Dialogue. 

SUSRIS: So these are building blocks of civil society?

Bronson: It's more of a signal for what people can talk about -- which in Saudi Arabia is important. I was a real skeptic about it. I really believed it was just window dressing -- a showpiece for the West until Saudis told me repeatedly that this is how things are done in their society and it is actually very important to be invited. It mattered to them and it allowed them to do things at home that they might not have otherwise done. And when enough people tell you that you start to believe it. 

SUSRIS: Let's talk about highlights from the Jeddah Economic Forum. What was noteworthy among the presentations? What were people talking about?

Bronson: The presentation that seemed to capture everybody�s attention was the President of Ireland Mary McAleese who spoke about Ireland�s impressive economic experience. She stressed education and the development of human capital, something that many Saudis believe is the key to unlocking their own successful economic future. 

SUSRIS: You know she was criticized in the press in Ireland for going to the forum given the attention to women in society in Saudi Arabia. How was she received considering she is a female head of state? What was the reaction to her presence, her presentation?

Bronson: First of all a man asked her a question, not a question but a comment about how the role of the women is to be at home and devote themselves to family and how they shouldn�t have an outside role. He went on and on. She listened very politely and then said from her understanding the Prophet Mohammed's wife was a businesswomen in her own right. And the applause just erupted on the women�s side, they were so delighted by that answer. Here was someone who had sat through that rant by a man, the kind of rants they have to listen to all the time, and she politely listened to it and responded with a reference from the Koran on their behalf. It was enormously inspiring to the women in the audience. And they were really appreciative of it. 

Another big event was the speech of the Minister of Information and Culture [Madani] who argued that there was no law in the kingdom stating that women couldn�t drive. It created a buzz, one that had reached the Eastern Province by the time I got there a few days later. Now, in many ways his speech was disingenuous. True there�s no law, but there�s a fatwa signed by none other than the late Grand Mufti bin Baz that has been around since 1991. In many ways it is much more binding on women than a law. But everyone recognized it as a trial balloon, and perhaps an effort to begin conditioning people that such a change is coming.

SUSRIS: How did the women you talked to judge the pace of social reform?

Bronson: Here's something else that comes back to the race against time. Last year when I was in the kingdom no one wanted to talk about women driving. "You Americans, all you want to talk about is women driving.� �Driving is not an issue.� �We lost that issue in 1991.� �We want to talk about education and job opportunities.� �Driving will come at some point." Over the course of the last year that has changed 180 degrees. Driving was what all the women were talking about.

SUSRIS: Was that the result of Minister Madani's speech?

Bronson: Yes, that set them off but I even heard it in the Eastern Province. The reason I think is because it is on the table again, both from his speech but also from the King�s daughter who has made comments. Saudis who have met the King said he believes driving will happen in their lifetimes. The animation of the debate was so interesting to me only because I had been roundly chastised that this was not the key issue for Saudi women. I bought it hook, line and sinker last year, and this year in the west and east, it seemed to be a major point of conversation. 

SUSRIS: Do you think people were concealing their real concerns last year or do you think things actually changed?

Bronson: I think that the accession of the king has made a real difference. I think they are enthusiastic about the moment and just don�t know how long it will last. I sensed that there was concern that it won�t last beyond King Abdullah.

SUSRIS: What were the attitudes in the Eastern Province on the reform issues you discussed with Saudis at the JEF? 

Bronson: Same in the Eastern Province. When I was in Damman they were going into their own chamber of commerce elections. I met with several of the women candidates. None won. But they were so enthusiastic and so excited. Again it's a small cross section. It's a small group that I met with and I don�t want to suggest that this is representative of the entire country. This is the elite and they are excited. They were optimistic that even if they didn�t win they would be better organized next time. We will see whether or not women get appointed -- there is now the hope that someone will get appointed. 

SUSRIS: What were people saying at the Jeddah Economic Forum about economic reform?

Bronson: Diversification of the economy was a big topic, along with pride in the fact that Saudi Arabia�s private sector is growing so quickly. The other economic issue was that Asia, particularly China, is becoming increasingly invested in the Saudi economy while Asian interest is not being matched with U.S. enthusiasm.

Education was important. There was a lot of talk about visas -- a huge issue. The King established 5,000 scholarships for students to study in the US but the visa section at the US Consulate in Jeddah is closed. So there are troubles getting visas and that�s really irritating people there. Now you talk to the Consulate and they correctly point out that the embassy [Riyadh] is processing ten times the number of visa requests compared to last year with the same staff and reduced facilities. But it is a huge problem. The King has offered these scholarships and it wasn't coordinated well with the US. Now we are having trouble processing visas and it continues to rankle and they continue to talk about it. 

SUSRIS: Did the American diplomatic personnel have a forecast about opening processing sections and getting back to normal?

Bronson: There in a bit of standoff with the Saudi government as a result of the terrorist attacks [December 2004] that targeted the Consulate in Jeddah. The Ambassador doesn�t want to open the visa section until they close the street that the Consulate is on. But it�s on a major street in Jeddah so the Saudis don�t want to close the street. I've been on the street -- it's right in the heart of Jeddah. So they want the street closed after the attack last year, but the Saudis don�t want to close the street. There�s the standoff. 

SUSRIS: Was there anything else you observed at the JEF you'd like to share?

Bronson: You know something that fascinated me was how the optimism of change was reflected in women�s abayas. Compared to last year there were far more colors -- reds and pinks -- and more detailing -- butterfly appliqu�s, and so forth. I think people are feeling that they have slightly more air to breathe.

Another thing I noticed was that I thought security was about 1/8th as tight this year of what it had been last year. People who were there for the first time were remarking about how much security there was, but it was nothing like it was last year. I was a bit concerned about that because I was concerned there might be bit of overconfidence. You know they have been very successful in rolling up cells and breaking up groups, going after the terrorists. And I was just worried that it might symbolize a decreased state of alert on these issues. But this is very impressionistic. It was disconcerting to see the metal detectors on the side, until the conference was well underway, or having the metal detectors go off and still be waved through. I am sure there was significant security behind the scenes but it was something I did notice being different from last year.

I was somewhat optimistic about the Jeddah Economic Forum. In some ways the whole point of the JEF is to break through the barriers and certainly it does. You have Americans there interacting with the Saudis in a forum to try to heal those rifts. The longstanding relations are still there and the old time proponents of American partnership are still there. They are talking about the relationship but it didn�t feel like we were making a huge impact in Saudi Arabia. 

There was a lot of "the west this" and "the west that." "There is no understanding of Muslim culture." "There is no understanding of Saudi Arabia." "There is no understanding of Arabs." "You know you guys don�t understand us, we understand you." I just thought there was a lot of work to do. 

SUSRIS: So the JEF goal of celebrating common grounds, there wasn�t much to be found?

Bronson: I saw a lot of tension. Obviously the individual conversations were wonderful and you could sit down and have lunch and talk about these things. But even the Minister of Culture and Information was talking about the west, the west, the west, in terms of them and us. This was the Minister of Culture and Information. He received much attention, rightfully so, after his comment on women driving. Maybe he had to do that to protect himself to make such a provocative statement. You know, I thought his speech was not helpful. It continued to reinforce this issue of east-west, them-us.

SUSRIS: King Abdullah's first trip abroad as head of state was to China and other Asian stops. What�s your impression about Saudi-Chinese relations specifically, and in general the attention being given to Asia?

Dr. Rachel Bronson: I think they are following their market. Their market is with Asia, and Asia is booming. They would be silly not to be exploring opportunities there. I do believe it is partially a response to the eroding US-Saudi special relationship. Economic realities are trumping the political relationship. 

SUSRIS: How are these new realities playing out in the relationship? Can Saudi Arabia forsake the US for China?

Bronson: I don�t think they are forsaking the US for China. I think that they are absolutely correct when they say economically this is the rational thing to do. However, 20 years ago, even ten years ago, economic rationality wasn�t their key concern -- political rationality was, and that led them to the US. Interest in China does suggest in part a continued frustration with the state of US-Saudi relations, and when the President in the State of the Union address talked about our addiction to oil and cutting reliance on Mideast supplies it didn�t help things. 

SUSRIS: Was there any fallout from that comment?

Bronson: Yes, it wasn�t lost on the Saudis -- this was another jab. It came up in conversation as a recent example of just one more thing. The [Danish] cartoons issue came up a lot. I would say that that was a topic that came up repeatedly. People interpreted the cartoons issue as freedom run amok. I think the Saudi government helped bolster this interpretation and citizens bought it. 

SUSRIS: What was your impression about the level of US business presence in Saudi Arabia?

Bronson:  I did get the sense that there is concern that while Saudi Arabia is booming economically the US isn�t playing. I think that was a concern among the Saudi business community and the traditionally pro-American crowd. There were concerns that the US isn�t interested in the boom and if we are so worried about Asia why aren�t we competing with Asia. This is all over the Gulf and Saudi Arabia The American response was by and large that the kingdom still makes it very difficult to get visas, is hard to get spouses over, is still bureaucratically difficult and there are easier places for businesses to operate. There was a concern that the US was not engaging the Saudis with as much interest as China.

SUSRIS: What is the state of play for Saudi Arabia vis a vis the United States and Iraq?

Bronson: I think the Saudis have written off the American effort in Iraq. I think they believe that it has failed and it is just a matter of time before Iraq deteriorates into civil war, if it�s not already in one. And they are trying to figure out what to do if and when that situation occurs. That is not from JEF but from other conversations. 

SUSRIS: Do you see a more active Saudi role in dealing with the situation in Iraq?

Bronson: I think they are going to take a more active role in the sense that from the beginning they had a very hands off approach. They had only something to lose by getting involved. Their closest ties are with the Sunnis and if they were seen interacting with the Sunnis they would be blamed for stoking sectarian conflict. You know that in the last couple of months the US has asked them to reach out -- from my understanding -- to the Sunnis. They started doing that, reaching out and using their tribal connections in Iraq to see what is going on and so they are much more involved. 

I think the Saudis are trying to figure out -- and it is their belief that it will only get worse -- how they should play it when all of this goes south. I think the attack in the Eastern Province [Abqaiq oil facility] plays into the situation. The timing of that will very much worry the Saudis as to whether or not it is tied to events in Iraq. I may play into the fear that the chaos in Iraq will spill over into the kingdom. They feel that this may be the first clear example that it could happen. I am sure that they are devoting a lot of attention to figuring out who was behind it -- what organizations were behind this and the timing will make them nervous. 

SUSRIS: That leads us to another serious defense issue on the minds of American and Saudi strategists -- Iran. Where do you see Saudi Arabia's interests in the current Iranian situation?

Bronson: I think the Saudis are extremely worried about the Iranians on a whole host of topics. It's one of the few issues still pushing the US and Saudi Arabia closer together. Even leaving aside WMD, the Saudis look around their region and they see Iran's growing presence in Iraq and Afghanistan, continued presence in Lebanon and now clear opportunities in Palestine. A lot of the debates about whether Saudi Arabia will or will not fund Hamas has as much to do for the Saudis about Iranian presence there as it does other issues. In terms of nuclear weapons they are very worried about a nuclear Iran and have made statements about a nuclear free Arabian or Persian Gulf. They�ve narrowed their diplomatic rhetoric from a focus on a nuclear free Middle East to a nuclear free Gulf, for obvious reasons having everything to do with Iran.

SUSRIS: Let's talk about the relationship between the United States and Saudi Arabia. Tell us your assessment of the current state of play on both sides. Are people less understanding of each other or more understanding? Has the relationship transitioned from the post-9/11 period to some new phase?

Bronson:  When Saudis look around the region they see it as a mess and they see the US as a contributor to that. They see Lebanon as a mess. They see Iraq as a mess. They see Iran on the move. Nothing looks good. Outside the booming economy based on high oil prices, the region seems on fire and the US has been a participant in that. 

Still some things are changing: the new visas, the new scholarships -- you have huge turnouts to take up those scholarships to study in the US and I think that is a good thing. I do think we have to give attention to individual grants that going to universities and partnering with American schools on education � where we continue to have a brand name that is golden. But in terms of the regional politics the US is blamed for everything that is going wrong, and a lot is going wrong in the region.

SUSRIS: So it�s a mixed record but the attitudes toward American foreign policy continue to be negative?

Bronson: Yes it's continuing in the negative and the Saudis are very mindful of that. They continue to see Saudi bashing in the American media. There are a lot of complaints about the media and President Bush�s State of the Union statement on oil just fed into it.

SUSRIS: What other issues did people want to talk about?

Bronson:  To me, we really started with it. It is really the headline to me. I think Saudis feel they are in a race against time and you really feel it when you are there. I think a lot of interesting things are happening at local levels but I think they face enormous challenges. And I don�t know if they will be able to overcome it all. Domestically, they�ve got huge challenges that they know about and are trying to address piecemeal. 

One of the things we didn�t talk about and it is sort of an answer to the question, what are people talking about now. It�s the stock market, that�s what people are talking about now. There is a huge oil boom going on in Saudi Arabia and they are investing in the region and the region is booming in many ways. That�s what people are talking about. They are investing in the stock market. They are getting rich off the stock market. That is a huge focus of people's time and energy. It is exciting fun. Now that was a huge conversation. [The Saudi bourse, the Tadawul All-Share Index, experienced several sharp declines subsequent to SUSRIS talking with Dr. Bronson.]

Compared to where the Saudis were ten years ago it is a good moment. That�s the sense that I got from them. Certainly when they look around the region that seems so abysmal maybe they are on the right track. The US revolutionary rhetoric is not the speed or direction that they want to pursue. They are going to go at their own speed and in their own way whether or not that is fast enough, Americans don�t think it is but we haven�t gotten a lot right in the region lately.

SUSRIS: What do you think the United State should be doing to assist? What do Saudis think the US should be doing? 

Bronson: You can focus on education. You can focus on trading. But my sense was this was very much a Saudi story right now. They have the money to do it. They have the political opportunity to do it. And I think, more than I did last year the, they are focused on doing what needs to be done. It is very much a Saudi story and they will do it at their own pace in their own way.

SUSRIS: You sound optimistic.

Bronson: Yeah, I am because they are. I think they have a lot of challenges to face but this is an optimistic moment and people are enthusiastic. It is going to be interesting to see how it plays out in the next couple of years. 

SUSRIS: Tell us about your new book. 

Bronson: The book is called "Thicker than Oil, Americas Uneasy Partnership with Saudi Arabia." It covers the history of US-Saudi relations from 1945 to present,. It looks at how important oil was to the relationship but also how important shared strategic interests were. Both the Americans and Saudis had overlapping strategic interests until the Cold War ended. And then in the 1990�s the relationship deteriorated obviously bottoming out in 2001. That leads to the challenges we face in the future.

SUSRIS: We look forward to reading it. Thank you again for taking time to talk today about your impressions of developments in the kingdom and the state of US-Saudi relations.

Bronson: You are welcome.

Bio: Dr. Rachel Bronson

The Time is Now in Saudi Arabia: A Conversation with Rachel Bronson - Part 1

• Book Info - Thicker Than Oil: America's Uneasy Partnership with Saudi Arabia - Rachel Bronson

• Bronson: Saudis �Deeply Concerned� Over Iran�s Nuclear Program - CFR Interview - Apr. 3, 2006

• Transcript - On-line discussion - Rachel Bronson discusses her book "Thicker Than Oil" - WashingtonPost On-line - Apr 24, 2006

More on SUSRIS:

• Jeddah Economic Forum 2006 - Press Summary - SUSRIS NID - Feb. 14, 2006

• Jeddah Economic Forum 2006 - SUSRIS IOI - Feb. 10, 2006

• Jeddah Economic Forum 2005 Update - SUSRIS NID - Feb. 20, 2005

• Jeddah Economic Forum 2005 - SUSRIS NID - Feb 18, 2005

• Top World Leaders to Address Jeddah Economic Forum - SUSRIS IOI - Jan. 29, 2005

• On Relations and Reforms: A Conversation with Rachel Bronson - SUSRIS Interview - May 31, 2005

• The Need for Education Reform - "Saudi System is the Problem" - by Rachel Bronson and Isobel Coleman - SUSRIS IOI - May 31, 2005

• President Roosevelt and King Abdulaziz - The Meeting at Great Bitter Lake: A Conversation with Rachel Bronson - SUSRIS Interview - Mar. 17, 2005

• How Does the Saudi Relationship With the Bush Family Affect U.S. Foreign Policy? - An E-mail Debate between Craig Unger and Rachel Bronson - SUSRIS IOI - Aug. 4, 2004

• U.S.-Saudi Relations: Online Discussion with Rachel Bronson - SUSRIS IOI - Jul. 13, 2004

• Saudi Arabia in the Balance - Political Economy, Society, Foreign Affairs - SUSRIS Book Note - Nov. 27, 2005

[for more SUSRIS items visit www.SUSRIS.org and use the site search engine to look for "relationship" ]