Why
Reforge the U.S. and Saudi Relationship?
An Interview with Anthony Cordesman |
|
SUSRIS:
Earlier this year you wrote an essay called,
"Ten
Reasons for Reforging the US and Saudi
Relationship," that appeared in the
Saudi-American Forum. It is an excellent starting
point for a discussion of where US-Saudi relations
are today and where they are going.
Your
first point addressed the global war on terrorism.
You said, "Both the U.S. and Saudi Arabia now
face a common threat from terrorism, both in terms
of internal and regional threats. Saudi Arabia may
have been slow to recognize how serious this
threat is, but since the terrorist attacks in
Saudi Arabia in May 2003, it has become clear that
it is as real for Saudis as it is for
Americans." The cooperation between the two
has improved as a result. There are some who still
say that the cooperation isn't as good as it
should be. How would you see that aspect of the
U.S.-Saudi relationship?
Dr.
Anthony Cordesman: Well, first I think you
need to understand that when you talk about
counterterrorism, you're also talking about
intelligence and operations and internal security,
which are some of the most sensitive issues any
two governments can deal with. We have problems
with virtually all of our European allies and with
virtually every Asian country. It's a fact that
you don't always get perfect sharing of
intelligence, and you don't always regard the same
people as terrorists. And, to pick on Saudi Arabia
as being unique in this category is unrealistic.
It's
also true that from the Saudi viewpoint,
we have often given sanctuary or asylum
to people that they regard as a serious
threat in terms of extremism and
terrorism just as we have often been
critical of the Saudis' tendency to not
crack down on given individuals. But,
all that aside, when it comes down to
areas like financing and the control of
the transfer of money, it's never going
to be perfect, but the relationship has
improved tremendously. |
Saudi
Arabia has done a great many things to
halt the financing of extremist
movements.. ..There's much better
exchange of intelligence now. There's
far better cooperation..
|
Saudi
Arabia has done a great many things to halt the
financing of extremist movements or that can move
into charities that have ties to terrorist groups.
There's much better exchange of intelligence now.
There's far better cooperation in providing
techniques and training in terms of terrorism
equipment, which the Saudis need. In the past,
their security forces have simply not faced this
kind of threat. There's cooperation on
intelligence activity outside Saudi Arabia. And,
this has helped in areas like Yemen, and it's
helped in the Gulf as well as in Central Asia.
Saudi Arabia has been much more careful about
which religious movements it finances outside
Saudi Arabia and whether these have ties to
Islamic extremists.
Now,
as you go down this list of actions, are there
areas where both sides could improve the
cooperation? The answer is of course. But, all of
this has to be kept in perspective. We have
differences even with nations like Britain over
exactly how to deal with the IRA and with various
forms of Irish extremists. We need to keep that in
perspective whenever we discuss the issue of
terrorism.
SUSRIS:
The second point you made was that the U.S.
and the world need Saudi and Gulf oil, and Saudi
Arabia and its neighbors need to export it.
There's been a lot of commentary and criticism in
recent months about the Saudi ability to affect
world oil prices and provide stability. There have
been claims that Saudi Arabia has manipulated the
world market, and there are some who say that
Saudi Arabia has promised the Bush Administration
that they were going to increase production to
enhance President Bush's re-election prospects.
So, Saudi Arabia's role in the world energy market
is now a political topic in the United States and
again a source of criticism.
Cordesman:
Well, it's a little ironic that Saudi Arabia,
simply because it is the largest exporter of oil,
perhaps Russia might argue that, becomes a natural
target for virtually every conspiracy theory
imaginable. Right now in the United States, you
have one group saying that it's manipulating world
supply to raise prices, and on the other hand,
that it's lowering prices to re-elect George Bush.
Now, if it can do both at the same time, it's
performed something of an economic miracle.
The
reality is that the problems in oil prices have
almost nothing to do with Saudi Arabia, which has
actually attempted to keep production relatively
high. Chinese demand has been extraordinarily
high. The growth of Asian demand has been higher
than predicted. The economy on a global basis has
recovered more quickly than people predicted.
We've had major problems in terms of oil supply
with the former Soviet Union, particularly with
Russia's treatment of Yukos. We've had problems in
Venezuela. We've had problems in Iraq.
Trying
to blame these on Saudi Arabia seems
rather strange, particularly when there
is a global market and Saudi Arabia has
actually been remarkably forthcoming in
increasing production and using its
surplus capacity to try to stabilize
prices. What we have to understand is
that over time, as local demand
increases, it's almost inevitable that
you're going to see serious rises in
real oil prices. They will always be
cyclical and erratic. But at this point
in time, as the International Energy
Agency points out, most oil producers
and exporters have simply not invested
enough in oil production to meet all of
the growing world demand without some
rise in price. This is a fact which not
only Americans but everyone in the world
is going to have to get used to. |
The
reality is that
the problems in oil
prices have almost
nothing to do with
Saudi Arabia, which
has actually attempted
to keep production
relatively high.
|
SUSRIS:
Among the reasons you cited for reforging the
U.S. and Saudi Arabia relationship was that,
"The U.S. and Saudi Arabia have a common
interest in the long-term internal stability of
Saudi Arabia." You cited population growth
figures for Saudi Arabia, talked about
unemployment and reform in the economy, the impact
of government debt, the inability of the
government to provide social services, modernizing
the infrastructure, and diversifying the economy
without major economic reform and investment. You
said it was important for the United States to be
supportive of Saudi Arabia as it moved down the
path of reform. Have you see any additional
progress or movement?
Cordesman:
I think that virtually everyone would agree
that Saudi Arabia as of yet is not moving forward
on economic reform quickly enough to deal with the
problems created by having a very young population
and a rapidly growing labor market, and providing
that services and the educational standards
necessary to make workers that are competitive.
But, it is making progress. It is reforming its
educational system. It is trying to create a
systematic pattern of Saudization. It is
attempting to liberalize and diversify its
economy.
In the
past, when Saudi Arabia has had this kind of
sudden boost in oil wealth that it's had over the
last few years, it's tended to use the money
relatively carelessly. In this case, it has done
just the opposite. It's paid off its debt. It's
put its money into job creation and into
stimulating the economy.
There
is a very serious problem -- the rate of
population growth is extremely high. The
level of education for young Saudi males
has not been good. You have a society
where it is difficult for women to work
or make full use of their talents. But
it is women who now have more secondary
school graduates and university
graduates than males. |
..there
are social issues that Saudis have to
address..
|
So, there
are social issues that Saudis have to address.
There are questions in becoming competitive, which
is one of the reasons that Saudi Arabia is seeking
entrance to the World Trade Organization. Now, all
of these factors plus the need for political
evolution are things that the Saudi government
clearly understands. Certainly Crown Prince
Abdullah has stressed the need for such reforms
again and again. But, the pace is not going to
bring stability unless it increases. The United
States has every reason to want a stable political
and economic evolution in Saudi Arabia.
The Saudi
society must create an environment where there is
good employment and good opportunities for young
men and educational standards that are competitive
on a global basis. The reasons for that are
strategic because of Saudi Arabia's location and
obviously because Saudi Arabia is so critical, not
only to today's oil production and exports and --
to any of the estimates that are being made by the
Department of Energy or the International Energy
Agency -- as to future production. If you look at
those estimates, they call for Saudi exports or at
least Saudi production capacity to more than
double between now and 2020 or 2030. That can only
happen if there is a stable, secure Saudi Arabia.
SUSRIS:
Related to economic developments, you
mentioned in your essay that, "This common
interest [between the United States and Saudi
Arabia] extends to Saudi political reform."
Saudi Arabia, as you noted, has a mix of
leaderships in the royal family among the
technocrats, businessmen, and Western-educated
intellectuals, who are a progressive elite who
understand the need to reform but that neither the
U.S. nor Saudi Arabia would benefit if the U.S.
didn't recognize that Saudi Arabia must reform at
its own pace. Since your February essay, there's
been the announcement of the three stages of
municipal elections, and there have been some
other movements on reform. The elections are now
scheduled for February through March of next year,
and some other activity in the reform movement has
occurred. How do you see that playing out?
Cordesman:
Well, first the local elections are perhaps
the first real experiment with the kind of
elections that will affect, hopefully, both the
government and the entire country. The purpose,
one has to believe, is to ultimately have an
elected Majlis, but it is also true that Saudi
Arabia is in the middle of a fight against
terrorists.
One of
the problems that develops very quickly is that if
you begin to hold elections in a society, which
does not have a history of them, is to find ways
of doing it where you get stable, political
parties being created, where you don't end up with
demagogues, who are local political figures who
simply have a historical heritage of taking
office. Saudi Arabia is a very conservative
society, and one whose history is still
essentially that of family and tribe, has to go
very, very cautiously.
I
think that certainly it would be desirable to move
forward on the local elections that at least are
scheduled and that Saudi Arabia now proposes.
Saudi Arabia also needs to look very hard at how
to create an elected Majlis. Now, with the steady
expansion of the Majlis' size and responsibility,
you have to believe that although it's never been
announced, that the people of the royal family do
understand that this has to go from a selected
Majlis and one which is picked by local leaders to
an elected Majlis at some point in the relatively
near future.
Again,
there is a great deal of effort that needs to go
on to allow more open political debate. And, here
it is disappointing that reformers who did little
more than petition for reform have been treated as
if they were somehow a political threat. This kind
of debate, this kind of political action, which is
peaceful and progressive, is simply not something
that deserves having trials and arrests.
The same
has to be said about the more conservative Saudis.
If Saudi Arabia is to move toward a democracy,
people who are willing to be part of the political
system, to take peaceful, political action, who
are beginning to organize around political
parties, have to become part of this system. It
can't simply be the people who are technocrats or
businessmen or educators, who are approved by
Saudi leaders or by traditional local leaders.
So, you
have to say that things are moving forward. There
are two steps forward, and in some ways, one step
backwards. And, those steps forward are really not
as of yet moving quickly enough.
SUSRIS:
Let's talk about social reforms. You commented
that cooperation must extend to Saudi social
reforms as well with the United States. But,
Americans needed to understand that the Saudi
system would never evolve social structures that
match those of the U.S., that there are not
universal standards in the sense of
mirror-imaging. How do you see the evolution
of social reform in Saudi Arabia? Many feel that
it is not going fast enough, and again as in the
other areas of reform, Saudi Arabians have said
that they need to move at their own pace. Indeed,
Secretary of State Powell recently reaffirmed the
United States' position that Saudi Arabia needed
to undertake reforms at their own pace. In the
area of social reform, how do you see this playing
out?
Cordesman:
I think there are a wide variety of reforms,
which need to be made. One basic reform comes with
the effort to create employment and to diversify
the economy and jobs. One key aspect of society is
to move away from paternalism and dependence to a
social structure in which young Saudi men and
young Saudi women work and compete on the basis of
earning a living just as, for that matter, their
forefathers did. That has all kinds of functional
and political implications. And, you should never
forget the linkage between social reform and
economics.
There are
other kinds of reform, which are really up to the
Saudis. Saudi Arabia is, perhaps, the most
conservative Islamic society in the world.
Outsiders may want it to open up to other
religions or to show a great deal more religious
tolerance than it has in the past, but the fact is
that those are Saudi choices, not choices to be
imposed from the outside.
It is
quiet clear that this isn't the set of choices
being made by the government. It's a set of
choices being made by the Saudi people. This is an
example of a case where you're not going to have
universal standards and certainly not within the
foreseeable future.
If
anything, the Kingdom's need for religious
tolerance, at this point in time, really consists
of having more tolerance for the spread between
Saudis who are more modern, more secular and
Saudis who are more religious without being
extremists and between the more puritanical
Sunnis, which dominate Saudi Arabia, and the
Shiites. This is a major social change in itself.
Moving forward in this area is far more important
in practical terms than trying to change the
entire character of Saudi Arabia's religious faith
-- something that certainly isn't going to happen
in the foreseeable future.
When
you look at the other sets of reforms, I
don't know if you call educational
reform social reform or not. The problem
goes far beyond what people often refer
to as Islamic versus secular education.
There is no reason why Islamic education
shouldn't be part of the Saudi
curriculum. There is a very good reason
to move away from a curriculum that has
gotten to be very outdated, rely on rote
learning, which doesn't train young
Saudi men and women in both tolerance
for other societies, and in the
practical skill they need to operate in
their own. |
..social
reform is
going to be critical
to Saudi Arabia's
future..
|
This
social reform is going to be critical to Saudi
Arabia's future. It isn't going to be possible to
meet Saudi Arabia's needs by simply getting rid of
foreign labor and compelling employers to hire
Saudis. What's critical is that young Saudis be
able to earn those jobs.
The final
dimension goes back to the changes taking place
socially. The global economy basically is
dependent on productivity among the entire labor
force, and virtually all of the developing
countries in the world, women play a critical role
in the labor force, and their productivity is one
of the most important aspects of development. In
Saudi Arabia, where again you have more women
graduating from secondary schools and
universities, and because of the very nature of
Saudi education, largely outside the Islamic
education program, you cannot move forward unless
eventually -- eventually has to be within the next
decade -- women play a much stronger and much more
openly competitive role in the economy. Now, how
Saudi Arabia does that, and the rate of which it
does it, is up to Saudi Arabia. If Saudi Arabia is
to deal with a growing population and its economic
needs, it has to make these changes.
SUSRIS:
"There is a continuing need for U.S. and
Saudi security cooperation and that the removal of
Saddam Hussein didn't reduce the security risks in
the Gulf completely." That was your sixth
reason for reforging relations. You said the U.S.
interest in Saudi Arabian security would continue,
and the coordination between our militaries would
continue. There seems to be confusion among some
observers as to the status of the US-Saudi
military-to-military relationship given the
withdrawal of U.S. forces, principally the
Operation Southern Watch forces from Prince Sultan
Air Base. Some saw that development as a political
issue rather than the end of a mission - the
enforcement of the no-fly zone over Iraq. How do
you see the current state and future of the
Saudi-U.S. military-to-military and security
relationship?
Cordesman:
Well, we do need to recognize that the U.S.
troop presence in Saudi Arabia, which was
essentially dominated by air forces, with a
limited presence of Patriot surface-to-air
missiles, was a source of serious debate and to
some extent instability within Saudi Arabia. It
was one of the cardinal arguments made by
extremists.
It
is a fact that the United States did not ever
reach an agreement to have bases in Saudi Arabia
and went into Saudi Arabia basically to defend it
and to liberate Kuwait. But, we have to bear in
mind the fact that when the Iraq War occurred,
Saudi Arabia did provide a great deal of
cooperation with the United States. It allowed
U.S. Special Forces units to operate out of Arar.
While U.S. troops and their units were no longer
operating actively in the country they still flew
other kinds of support missions extensively in
during the Iraq War. The command and control for
some of these that the U.S. created outside Riyadh
were used to a great degree. There was airborne
refueling and overflight rights. Basically, while
Saudi Arabia did not allow the U.S. to use its
bases formally, it cooperated in virtually in
every other way.
Now,
today, the United States has no combat
forces in Saudi Arabia, but it still
plays a vital advisory role. Saudi
Arabia uses U.S. military equipment. A
lot of that equipment is still in
delivery or is still being absorbed by
Saudi forces. Saudi Arabia would find
much of that equipment impossible to use
if it could not make use of U.S.
military advice. It needs the kind of
expertise that the U.S. can provide to
improve its training standards, to
improve its readiness and to move its
forces forward to become the kind of
forces that can actively defend the
Kingdom. It also has good reason to see
the U.S. presence in Bahrain, Kuwait,
Qatar, and Oman as a basic shield
between Saudi Arabia and an Iran, which
seems to be acquiring nuclear weapons
and as a way of protecting the Kingdom
if Iraq does not move forward towards a
more stable and more friendly state. |
..the
Kingdom benefits
from the U.S. role,
and the U.S. obviously
benefits from the
stability of Saudi
Arabia..
|
These are
realities where the Kingdom benefits from the U.S.
role, and the U.S. obviously benefits from the
stability of Saudi Arabia and the knowledge that
in an emergency the cooperation we saw in the Iraq
War would probably be repeated again.
But, it
doesn't mean that the United States has to have an
active military presence in Saudi Arabia in
essentially peacetime or that we need to go back
to the kind of relationships we had immediately
after the Gulf War. Saddam Hussein's Iraq was one
of the largest military powers in the developing
world. Iraqi military forces, despite all that
happened in the Gulf War, totaled hundreds of
thousands of men, and they still had very large
armored forces and a very large number of combat
aircraft. The fact that threat is gone has helped,
but for all the reasons I've outlined earlier,
it's scarcely eliminated every threat that calls
for U.S. and Saudi cooperation.
SUSRIS:
The next you made in justifying the rationale for
reforging the relationship between the U.S. and
Saudi Arabia was that both nations need to
cooperate to counter the forces of Islamic
extremism. Saudi Arabia is still the custodian of
Islam's two most important holy places. It is
still a symbol of Islam, as well as Arab rule, to
many people outside as well as inside Saudi
Arabia. How is it in the interest of the United
States, the role that Saudi Arabia plays in the
Islamic world? How is that important in the
relationship?
Cordesman:
Unfortunately, the easiest way to illustrate
just how important it is to imagine what would
happen if Saudi Arabia actually came under control
of someone like Bin Laden or any Islamist
extremist movement that was really committed to
some kind of struggle along religious lines with
the West.
In
that case, being the custodian of the
most important Islamic holy places would
give such a movement immense leverage,
and its influence would be far more
destabilizing. At the same time, if you
could imagine how a combination of that
ideology and the income Saudi Arabia
draws from oil exports could be used to
support the causes of extremism,
terrorism and for that matter,
asymmetric war. But, when you look at
today's climate, it is very important
that we understand that it isn't simply
a matter of having secular governments
in the Arab world to fight extremism.
This is in many ways a struggle for the
hearts and minds of the Islamic world.
It is a struggle for the future of
Islam. |
Nations
like Saudi Arabia,
which are deeply Islamic,
which speak to the
conservatives in Islam..
..have an influence which
goes far beyond its borders.
|
Nations
like Saudi Arabia, which are deeply Islamic, which
speak to the conservatives in Islam, to the more
puritanical groups that have no interest in
violence or in extremism or in terrorism, have an
influence which goes far beyond its borders.
Even
the way it manages the Pilgrimage plays an
important role in how people in Islam view Islam.
These are the kinds of forces that we need to
think about because we are not simply dealing with
Bin Laden or Al Qaeda. We're dealing with the kind
of debate over the future of Islam in not only the
Arab world or the Middle East but the entire
Islamic world that is going to go on not simply
for a few years, but probably for well over a
decade. The role nations like Saudi Arabia play in
that debate, and the role they play in ensuring
that whatever the outcome is, it is not extremist,
it is not intolerant, and it does not lead to some
kind of clash of civilizations, is absolutely
critical.
SUSRIS:
In that regard, you said cooperation was
needed to develop "information
campaigns" to build understanding rather than
anger and fear. Constructive criticism could play
some role in the bilateral dialogue but the
Saudi-bashing by some in the Congress and U.S.
media was largely destructive. Can you talk a
little bit more about that aspect of the
relationship, and where it has evolved since wrote
your essay?
Cordesman:
Well, I think frankly that we still are at the
start of the level of dialogue that we need. The
history of the U.S.-Saudi relationship is often
the history of distance, a tolerance based on
ignorance or really based on the ability to
cooperate remotely without any direct involvement
between the peoples.
In
the middle of the current debate and
struggle over the future of the Islamic
world, and certainly after 9/11 and
after May 2003, that approach is
inadequate. It is going to take a really
determined effort to build dialogue and
to build tolerance on both sides. There
is in the United States, not only
Saudi-bashing, but a lot of careless
rhetoric about Islam and about the Arab
world and an indifference to the
problems of the Palestinians. This
combines to feed extremism and
terrorism.
At
the same time in Saudi Arabia and in the
Arab world, there is an almost endless
series of conspiracy theories with
little effort to check the facts. Many
of them are so far out of mind that they
come close to the assumption or to the
kind of fear of alien abductions rather
than rational, political action. There
is still in Saudi Arabia a level of
religious intolerance, which people in
Saudi Arabia need to address. There is a
state of denial over the depth of some
of the Kingdom's social and economic
problems and of what actually happened
in leading up to the events in
Afghanistan and in 9/11.
|
There
is in the United
States, not only
Saudi-bashing, but a
lot of careless rhetoric
about Islam and about
the Arab world.. ..in Saudi Arabia and
in the Arab
world, there is an almost
endless series of
conspiracy theories
with little effort to
check the facts.
|
Both
sides have made some very serious mistakes. Both
sides are still ignorant of each other. Both sides
have within their societies people who are doing a
great deal to make things worse rather than
better. Now, you have seen people like President
Bush, and it's very important to note this,
repeatedly make the statement that Islam is not to
blame for Bin Laden -- that he is an aberration,
that he is an extremist. You have seen U.S.
officials reach out to Saudi Arabia to counter the
various theories or charges of the U.S. that are
Saudi-bashing. You have seen similar steps taken
in Saudi Arabia to attack extremism and
terrorists, but it is clear that this is as of yet
not doing enough.
We need a
lot more dialogue. We need a lot more mutual
understanding. We need a lot more governmental
efforts to improve the level of education and to
really train and to help people deal with the
problems that we both face in the threat of
terrorism and extremism.
SUSRIS:
The penultimate point you made in reasons for
reforging the relationship was that cooperation
between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia was important in
the Arab-Israeli peace process. Both sides have
taken positions and try to move initiatives
forward towards resolving that problem. Can you
give us your view on where that fits in to the
U.S. and Saudi Arabian relationship?
Cordesman:
It is certainly true that many Saudis as many
Arabs blame the United States for lack of progress
in ending the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, in
reaching the kind of peace that they believe is
needed. Just as many Americans blame the Saudis
and Arabs for not pushing the Palestinians into
reform and in bringing extremism and terrorism
under control.
The
problem we face, and it is an extraordinarily
difficult problem, is that at this point in time,
you do not have either a Palestinian government
that seems capable of making the necessary reforms
and moves towards peace or an Israeli government
that is committed to putting an end to the
settlements and which is willing to make positive
steps towards peace in the middle of what is a
very real ongoing struggle between both sides.
It's very
easy to blame either the United States or Arab
nations outside this struggle for the mistakes
being made by Israelis and Palestinians. At the
same time, the reality is that it is very, very
difficult to move forward whether you're in Saudi
Arabia or the United States when you have two
governments, and to some extent two peoples, at
this point so committed to conflict or at least
finding it so difficult to understand the other
side's goals and objectives.
About all
I can say is that this is an area where both
governments need to be seen to go on trying very
visibly and very actively. In the case of the
United States, it would be desirable if the United
States would put more pressure on Israel to put an
end to settlements, to ensure that any fences or
security barriers do not divide up the West Bank
and truly are needed for security purposes --
security that could help the Palestinians as well
as the Israelis.
If Gaza
is to move forward, it is to move forward in the
ways where the Gazans and the Palestinians really
end up with what is the beginning of a true
Palestinian state, and not simply some kind of
glorified refugee camp.
It would
be equally desirable for Saudi Arabia to take
every step to move its peace proposal forward and
to do so on the understanding that whatever we
come up with, it's got to look a great deal like
the Clinton proposal at Camp David or the best
proposals that both sides put forward at Taba.
We can't
go back to 1949. We can't go back to 1967. We
can't recreate a Palestine, which is a rural
state. We can't ignore demographics that say most
Palestinian refuges outside the country aren't
going to find jobs or an economy inside Gaza or
the West Bank with its current population growth
rate.
At the
same time when we look even further into the
future, we have to understand that Saudi Arabia,
the United States and the other Western and Arab
powers are going to have to provide the kind of
aid and support if we do get a peace that will not
only allow Israel to remain stable but to give the
people of Palestine the kind of economic
opportunities and growth so that they see real
peace benefits -- something were seriously lacking
in the period following the Oslo accords. That is
a very difficult set of issues to deal with.
None of
what I have said provides easier good answers.
But, the fact that you sometimes need to spend
time to deal with complex problems and focus on
the best option available rather than the option
you want is just a fact of life.
SUSRIS:
The last point you made in your essay was that
both nations -- the United States and Saudi Arabia
-- need to work together to avoid a 'clash of
civilizations.' You touched on that today in
talking about Islamic extremism and Saudi Arabia's
role in the Islamic world and the U.S. interest in
developing understanding. You mentioned in your
essay that, "Extremism and terrorism cannot
by themselves either defeat the U.S. or bring down
moderate Arab regimes. They can only succeed,
however, if they can provoke hatred and bigotry on
both sides, and create a 'clash of civilizations'
that makes effective cooperation impossible."
How do Americans see the roles the United States
and Saudi Arabia and the relationship plays in
ensuring there is not a "clash of
civilizations"?
Cordesman:
I think frankly that Americans, when they do
think of these issues, they think about them in
terms of 9/11 and in terms of terrorism, not in
terms of the broader problems of creating and
trying to understand and ties between Judaism,
Christianity and Islam, which is ultimately the
only way to counter extremism.
We
have not yet, as a country, anymore that
any other country, looked beyond the
immediate risks and problems of
terrorism and extremism. What we need to
do in counterterrorism is to create the
kind of partnerships and understanding
of efforts between governments to
educate people and to deal with the
ideological, philosophical and religious
issues.
If
this were just one small sect of
scattered movements in one or two
countries, what we are doing would be
enough. The fact is, however, that we
are talking about a world which is
involved in massive change. The problems
which affect the Middle East and the
Arab world affect Islam in Central Asia,
South Asia and Southeast Asia as well.
They are problems, which are
generational.
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We
are going to have
to think beyond
counterterrorism, to
think strategically, to
see this struggle on
an ideological level
just as we saw the
same struggle occur
during the Cold War.
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We are
going to have to think beyond counterterrorism, to
think strategically, to see this struggle on an
ideological level just as we saw the same struggle
occur during the Cold War. Now there, over time,
it was mutual understanding, a rational approach
to economics and social behavior, a focus on
progressive reform, which ultimately put an end to
the kind of extremism of arrogant communism.
We are
dealing with a much more difficult set of issues
today. A lot of what happens is going to be
determined if not most of it by the struggle not
between civilizations but the struggle for
civilization and for the future of Islam within
Islam.
I think
that's a struggle that is going to be won by
moderates. It's going to be won by the core values
of Islam which have existed since the time of
Mohammed, but it is also a struggle in which the
West on the outside plays a part.
If you
ask me have we really understood it in the United
States, or for that matter in Europe or the West,
and particularly the kind of positive role we can
play rather than simply focusing on
counterterrorism, the answer has to be not yet.
SUSRIS:
We should be encouraged by your optimism that
the moderates will win out. Thank you Tony
Cordesman for sharing insights into these
important issues that shape the U.S.-Saudi
relationship.
Also
see:
Dr.
Anthony H. Cordesman holds the Arleigh Burke
Chair in Strategy at the Center
for Strategic and International Studies
and is Co-Director of the Center's Middle East
Program. He is also a military analyst for ABC and
a Professor of National Security Studies at
Georgetown. He directs the assessment of global
military balance, strategic energy developments,
and CSIS' Dynamic Net Assessment of the Middle
East. He is the author of books on the military
lessons of the Iran-Iraq war as well as the
Arab-Israeli military balance and the peace
process, a six-volume net assessment of the Gulf,
transnational threats, and military developments
in Iran and Iraq. He analyzes U.S. strategy and
force plans, counter-proliferation issues, arms
transfers, Middle Eastern security, economic, and
energy issues.
Dr.
Cordesman served as a national security analyst
for ABC News for the 1990-91 Gulf War, Bosnia,
Somalia, Operation Desert Fox, and Kosovo. He was
the Assistant for National Security to Senator
John McCain and a Wilson Fellow at the Woodrow
Wilson Center for Scholars at the Smithsonian. He
has served in senior positions in the Office of
the Secretary of Defense, the Department of State,
the Department of Energy, and the Defense Advanced
Research Projects Agency. His posts include acting
as the Civilian Assistant to the Deputy Secretary
of Defense, Director of Defense Intelligence
Assessment, Director of Policy, Programming, and
Analysis in the Department of Energy, Director of
Project ISMILAID, and as the Secretary of
Defense's representative on the Middle East
Working Group.
Dr.
Cordesman has also served in numerous overseas
posts. He was a member of the U.S. Delegation to
NATO and a Director on the NATO International
Staff, working on Middle Eastern security issues.
He served in Egypt, Iran, Lebanon, Turkey, the UK,
and West Germany. He has been an advisor to the
Commander-in-Chief of U.S. Forces in Europe, and
has traveled extensively in the Gulf and North
Africa.
Essays by Dr.
Cordesman
- "The
Prospects for Stability in 2004 -- The Issue
of Political, Economic and Social
Reform," by Anthony H. Cordesman, Saudi
US Relations Information Service Item of
Interest, Feb. 23, 2004
- The
9/11 Commission Report: Strengths and
Weaknesses," by Anthony H. Cordesman,
Saudi US Relations Information Service Item of
Interest, Jul. 29, 2004
- Developments
in Iraq at the End of 2003: Adapting
U.S. Policy to Stay the Course," by
Anthony H. Cordesman, GulfWire Perspectives,
January 7, 2004
- "Four
Wars and Counting: Rethinking the Strategic
Meaning of the Iraq War," by Anthony
H. Cordesman, GulfWire Perspectives, December
5, 2003
- "Iraq:
Too Uncertain to Call," by Anthony H.
Cordesman, GulfWire Perspectives, November 18,
2003
- "Saudi
Redeployment of the F-15 to Tabuk,"
by Anthony H. Cordesman, Saudi-US Relations
Information Service Item of Interest, November
1, 2003
- "Iranian
Security Threats and US Policy: Finding
the Proper Response," by Anthony H.
Cordesman, GulfWire Perspectives, October 28,
2003
- "What
is Next in Iraq? Military Developments, Military
Requirements and Armed Nation Building," by
Anthony H. Cordesman, GulfWire Perspectives,
August 22, 2003
- "Saudi
Government Counterterrorism - Counter
Extremism Actions," by Anthony H.
Cordesman, Saudi-US Relations Information
Service Item of Interest, August 4, 2003
- "Saudi
Arabia: Don't Let Bin Laden Win!", by
Anthony H. Cordesman, Saudi-American Forum
Item of Interest, May 16, 2003
- "Postwar
Iraq: The New Old Middle East," by
Anthony H. Cordesman, GulfWire Perspectives,
April 16, 2003
- "Iraq's
Warfighting Strategy," by Anthony H.
Cordesman, GulfWire Perspectives, March 11,
2003
- "Reforming
the Middle East: President Bush's
Neo-Con Logic Versus Regional Reality,"
by Anthony H. Cordesman, GulfWire
Perspectives, February 27, 2003
- "The
Great Iraq Missile Mystery," by
Anthony H. Cordesman, GulfWire Perspectives,
February 26, 2003
- "Iraq
Security Roundtable at CSFS: A
Discussion With Dr. Anthony Cordesman,"
Center for Strategic and Future Studies,
GulfWire Perspectives, January 28, 2003
- "A
Coalition of the Unwilling: Arms Control
as an Extension of War By Other Means,"
By Anthony H. Cordesman, GulfWire
Perspectives, January 25, 2003
- "Is
Iraq In Material Breach? What Hans Blix, Colin
Powell, And Jack Straw Actually
Said," By Anthony H. Cordesman,
GulfWire Perspectives, December 20, 2002
- "Saudi
Arabia: Opposition, Islamic Extremism And
Terrorism," by Anthony H. Cordesman,
GulfWire Perspectives, December 1, 2002
- "Planning
For A Self-Inflicted Wound: U.S. Policy
To Reshape A Post-Saddam Iraq," by
Anthony H. Cordesman, GulfWire Perspectives,
November 24, 2002
- "The
West And The Arab World - Partnership Or A
'Clash Of Civilizations?'" By Anthony
H. Cordesman, GulfWire Perspectives, November
12, 2002
- "Strategy
In The Middle East: The Gap Between Strategic
Theory And Operational Reality," by
Dr. Anthony H. Cordesman, GulfWire
Perspectives, October 22, 2002
- "A
Firsthand Look At Saudi Arabia Since
9-11," GulfWire's Interview With Dr.
Anthony Cordesman In Saudi Arabia, GulfWire
Perspectives October 10, 2002
- "Escalating
To Nowhere: The Israeli And Palestinian
Strategic Failure," By Anthony H.
Cordesman, GulfWire Perspectives, April 8,
2002
- "Reforging
The U.S. And Saudi Strategic
Partnership," by Dr. Anthony H.
Cordesman, GulfWire Perspectives, January 28,
2002
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