Gulf Security Cooperation - Anthony Cordesman

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November 22, 2008

Security Cooperation in the Gulf: Actions -- Rather than Words and Good Intentions
Anthony Cordesman

Security Cooperation in the Gulf: Actions -- Rather than Words and Good Intentions
Anthony Cordesman

The Southern Gulf states and the U.S. must make major changes in their national security posture over the next few years. U.S. withdrawals from Iraq, the rising potential threat from Iran, and the need to meet new security challenges all require substantial changes in the security posture and forces of each Gulf country and in the size, structure, and deployment of U.S. forces in the Gulf.

Cooperation between the Gulf states is only one aspect of these force shifts but it is a critical one. The Burke Chair at CSIS has developed a new briefing on such cooperation that strongly challenges the idea that Iran is an emerging hegemon in the region. It draws on a briefing prepared for the 17th annual policymakers conference of the National Council on US-Arab Relations.

The brief shows that the Southern Gulf - or Gulf Cooperation Council - states have consistently spent more than seven times as much on military forces as Iran and more than 15 times as much on arms imports. This lead in resources is match by a lead in quality. The Southern Gulf states have nearly free access to the world's most advanced military technology and Iran does not.

The brief does show that Iran can pose significant conventional threats, but that its one real advantage is in total manpower - an advantage it cannot use in most scenarios. The Southern Gulf states not only have the support of U.S., British, and French forces, but a qualitative and quantitative advantage in key land weapons, aircraft and air systems, and ships.

They also have the resources to deal with asymmetric threats and to develop defenses against Iran's missiles and ability to deliver weapons of mass destruction. If they cooperate in these areas, and in seeking extended deterrence from the U.S., they can both deter and defend against a nuclear Iran and check its ability to use asymmetric warfare.

The brief outlines specific areas for such cooperation in dealing with any current to mid-term threat. At the same time, it suggests that the main real world threat to the Southern Gulf states is not Iran, but the lack of cooperation, interoperability, and integrated military and procurement planning by individual Gulf states. The real challenge is not to prepare for war but to prevent it. It is to overcome local rivalries and tensions and work together to act - rather than simply talk and issue communiqu�s.

This briefing is entitled "Security Cooperation in the Gulf: Actions -- Rather than Words and Good Intentions," and is available on the CSIS web site at: Click here for complete report

About Anthony Cordesman

Dr. Anthony H. Cordesman holds the Arleigh Burke Chair in Strategy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and is Co-Director of the Center's Middle East Program. He is also a military analyst for ABC and a Professor of National Security Studies at Georgetown. He directs the assessment of global military balance, strategic energy developments, and CSIS' Dynamic Net Assessment of the Middle East. He is the author of books on the military lessons of the Iran-Iraq war as well as the Arab-Israeli military balance and the peace process, a six-volume net assessment of the Gulf, transnational threats, and military developments in Iran and Iraq. He analyzes U.S. strategy and force plans, counter-proliferation issues, arms transfers, Middle Eastern security, economic, and energy issues. [Click here for more]

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