Gulf Defense Cooperation - Christopher Blanchard - Congress

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Mr. Christopher Blanchard at the Arab-US Policymakers Conference. (Photo: NCUSAR.org)

Regional Defense Challenges:
A New Administration, A New Congress
Christopher Blanchard
(AUSPC 2008)

Editor's Note:

Each fall the National Council on US-Arab Relations brings together a distinguished group of diplomats, government officials, business people, military officials, scholars and others to tackle the thorny issues surrounding US-Arab relations. SUSRIS has provided AUSPC speakers' remarks, which touch on the Saudi-US relationship, to you for over the last five years. In keeping with that practice we again provide for your consideration a collection of AUSPC presentations.�

Today we present the remarks of Christopher Blanchard a Middle East Policy Analyst at the Congressional Research Service (CRS), the public policy research arm of the United States Congress. Mr. Blanchard provided an overview of the issues and challenges facing the new Administration and the new Congress. He was joined on the Security Cooperation panel by Doctor Anthony Cordesman, Mr. Jeffrey C. McCray, and Ambassador Barbara Bodine. Their remarks will be provided separately. The panel was chaired by Rear Admiral Harold J. Bernsen.

Additional AUSPC sessions which address U.S. and Saudi issues will be provided by SUSRIS in the coming days.

17th ANNUAL ARAB-U.S. POLICYMAKERS CONFERENCE
�Transitioning the White House: Challenges and Opportunities for Arab-U.S. Relations�
October 30-31, 2008 | Washington, DC

The Arab-US Policymakers Conference Defense Cooperation panel inluding (L-R) John Duke Anthony, Anthony Cordesman, Christopher Blanchard, Jeffrey McCray and Barbara Bodine. (Photo: Patrick Ryan) [RADM HAROLD J. BERNSEN] Our next presenter is Mr. Christopher Blanchard. He�s a Middle East policy analyst at the Congressional Research Service. And he�s come to our attention here at the Council through his very excellent work in authoring or co-authoring 13 Congressional Research Service Reports covering various aspects of Gulf security and we look forward to hearing from him. Chris.

[CHRISTOPHER BLANCHARD] Good morning. I�d like to thank Dr. Anthony and the Council first and foremost for the opportunity to address you this morning, and also to do so alongside such a distinguished panel.

My task as outlined by our hosts is to offer you some focused remarks on the U.S.-Arab security cooperation agenda for policymakers as we look forward to a new administration and to the beginning of the 111th Congress. I�ll start by underscoring that my remarks this morning are made in my personal capacity and do not reflect the views or opinions of the Congressional Research Service. Now in theory that allows me to actually say something stimulating to you so I�ll try to do that.

First, I�ll review the menu of security cooperation programs and initiatives that the new Administration and the new Congress will inherit in January 2009. Iraq notwithstanding, what will U.S.-Arab defense cooperation look like on day one? That includes initiatives in the Gulf but it also includes important initiatives beyond the Gulf that have to be taken into consideration when looking at the overall dynamic of defense cooperation. What commitments and constraints are already existing and what will the new Administration and Congress have to contend with?

Secondly, I�ll describe what I see as the most important unresolved issues and potential challenges related to those programs. In doing so I�ll try to identify some tangible policy questions and options for U.S. policymakers and their regional counterparts in the months and years ahead.

Now you heard a lot yesterday and earlier from Doctor Cordesman about the various pitfalls of the strategic environment upcoming in January but also pitfalls related to existing programs. Rather than add to that sobering list I�ll emphasize the elements I think are most relevant to U.S. security assistance programs.

Namely, first and foremost the continuing terrorist threat to governments� critical infrastructure across the region. The need to respond to an assertive, if not capable, or maybe as threatening as we�ve been led to believe, Iranian regional policy and the need to address the weakness of state security institutions primarily in Iraq, Lebanon, the Palestinian territories and increasingly in Yemen.

Over the short term obviously U.S. security policymakers will be constrained in their ability to respond to these challenges by the need to manage the continuing investment of resources and manpower in Iraq and Afghanistan, and also the unclear political and security endgames in both of those countries.

To date the Bush Administration working with Congress has supported a variety of longstanding and new security cooperation programs to respond to these conditions and other conventional and unconventional threats. These programs include what I call legacy programs. These are longstanding programs, for example with Saudi Arabia, such as the Saudi Arabian National Guard modernization program, the Military Training Mission � these continue to serve as the principal U.S. military liaison relationships with the Saudi National Guard and the Ministry of Defense and Aviation. They continue to operate through the mechanism of the foreign military sales program and both programs in the last 12 months, 16 months have seen potential sales notifications to Congress that will extend the programs commitment and activities well into the next Administration.

As highlighted in yesterday�s ambassador roundtable the working groups of the U.S.-Saudi Strategic Dialogue have helped strengthen U.S.-Saudi cooperation in other areas outside these long established programs. In a parallel, if unmentioned yesterday, DoD-led initiative known as the Strategic Joint Planning Committee, has charted a new course for bilateral security cooperation in the further development of Saudi defense capabilities.

Mr. Christopher Blanchard of the Congressional Research Service at the Arab-US Policymakers Conference Defense Cooperation panel. (Photo: NCUSAR) The other important legacy program to take note of is the U.S. defense cooperation program with Egypt, sort of conspicuously absent in many of our discussions. It continues to be anchored by an annual $1.3 billion dollar foreign military financing appropriation to support the acquisition of new defense systems, upgrades to existing technology and the support and maintenance of purchased equipment. There�s also continuing close coordination on the use of facilities for the transit of the Suez Canal. These are cornerstones that the new administration and Congress are going to have to take into consideration.

We�ve also seen the development of new bilateral programs outside of the Gulf. For example, U.S. security cooperation with Jordan has grown significantly. Again, through the use of foreign military financing assistance but recently last month codified in the signing of a five-year memorandum of understanding, subject to Congressional approval of course, that will provide up to $300 million a year in foreign military financing to support U.S.-Jordanian defense cooperation.

A similar new program with Lebanon, since 2006, in response to the summer conflict, Congress has appropriated over $400 million to new security assistance programs for Lebanese armed forces and internal security forces. These programs are designed to improve Lebanese government�s capability to assert control over its territory and meet security commitments under U.N. Security Council 1701. To date U.S. programs have delivered supplies, training, ammunition, communications gear, vehicles and the Bush administration has made a commitment that the new administration and Congress will have to take into account to continue quote enhancing the LAF�s capabilities. That�s likely to include new Congressional notifications and consideration of deliveries.

A third bilateral program that the new administration and Congress have to take into consideration is our security cooperation with the Palestinian Authority. This is a longer running program than many realize. It was derailed with the Hamas election in 2006 but was restarted in 2007 and has been supported through a $160 million appropriation, again, to improve the capabilities of these internal security forces.

To address some of the security cooperation challenges relative to the Gulf, the core program, there�s a multilateral initiative known as the Gulf Security Dialogue. Now there is a pitfall here, or potential for this to fall into the empty sloganeering that Doctor Cordesman warned us about. But what it represents is actually a fairly tangible and significant initiative by the administration to actually engage with the GCC in a comprehensive and repeated manner on subjects such as the improvement of their defense capabilities and interoperability, coordination on regional security issues, counter proliferation, counter terrorism, critical infrastructure protection. It represents a sustained, and really for the first time, interagency approach to the GCC partners to try and meet some of the challenges that Doctor Cordesman outlined.

Turning towards what I see as the unresolved issues and challenges for these programs and what are the new Administration and Congress and our regional partners likely to face?

The first important unresolved issue and really the most important is the definition of some organizing principle. Since the September 11th attacks, ushered in a moment when both dual containment and the Oslo Peace process were falling apart. Counter terrorism has really served as the overarching theme of U.S. security engagement with the region. However, the need to marshal regional support for U.S. efforts in Iraq and contain the effects of that security situation have prevented a real sort of clarification of what U.S. strategic objectives are in the region and the prioritization of those objectives and the clear communication of those ideas to our GCC partners and potential adversaries.

Post 2006 the Administration has taken new efforts to strengthen the capabilities of partner governments as I have laid out but also to respond to some of the more asymmetric threats posed by terrorist groups and by Iran to give a new direction to U.S. security cooperation policy in the region. However, a clear definition is still lacking. A post-9/11 or stable post-Iraq -- even if we dare talk about that -- paradigm, this is really the main issue the new Administration and Congress are going to have to identify through working with our regional partners, or in consultation with regional partners.

What that will lead to ideally is a review of what the U.S. defense posture in the region is and our core security cooperation programs. Obviously strategy dictates operations and tactics. So which facilities do we need to maintain? What partner capabilities do we need to encourage and develop? What sort of cooperation programs are required to complement what is likely to be a more residual U.S. presence in the region?

Dr. Tony Cordesman and Mr. Christopher Blanchard at the Arab-US Policymakers Conference. (Photo: Patrick Ryan) In reviewing the programs I described earlier the new administration and Congress and our regional partners should think carefully about how to match and reshape these programs to meet current and projected needs not just to continue to meet the status quo and continue decades-long programs designed to meet conventional threats that may or may not materialize.

It�s a question of means and ends. Is defense cooperation a means to an end or has defense cooperation in some instances, in some forms, become the end in and of itself? Again, we heard yesterday about some efforts to do that with the Saudi cooperation programs. However, I would echo Doctor Cordesman in emphasizing that Saudi Arabia�s more immediate security needs are critical infrastructure protection, border security and maritime defense and new opportunities exist to meet those.

To sum up, I would like to encourage both our U.S. policymakers in the audience and our regional partners to focus a little bit more on process. Last year on this panel, General Martin Dempsey stated that stovepipe authorities, a lack of clear vision, frustration with the pace of the foreign military sales program � these were things that were really limiting the effectiveness of U.S.-Arab military cooperation.

He suggested that those programs and procedures and objectives be revisited and streamlined. I would suggest that looking forward to the opening of the new administration that policymakers on both sides seriously consider General Dempsey�s recommendations and work together to chart a new course and really revitalize security cooperation programs to meet the serious threats that this conference has helped outline.

Thank you.

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Read more from this panel, including the Q&A, in the transcript posted at: Click Here

Source: Arab-US Policymakers Conference Web Site (AUSPC 2008)
http://www.auspc.org

Transcription Services by Ryan & Associates

About Mr. Christopher Blanchard

Mr. Christopher Blanchard of the Congressional Research Service at the Arab-US Policymakers Conference Defense Cooperation panel. (Photo: NCUSAR) Christopher Blanchard is a Middle East Policy Analyst at the Congressional Research Service (CRS), the public policy research arm of the United States Congress. As a CRS analyst, Mr. Blanchard provides objective nonpartisan policy analysis and research support to the Members, committees, and staff of the U.S. Congress on a range of political, economic, and security issues in the Middle East. He has authored or co-authored 13 CRS reports for the Congress, including products on the Gulf Security Dialogue and related U.S. arms sales, U.S. relations with Saudi Arabia and Qatar, and regional perspectives on the Iraq conflict. His work has been included in national security syllabi at top U.S. universities and has been cited in a number of leading national and international publications. As a Presidential Management Fellow, Mr. Blanchard served as a policy advisor on the Middle East with the Office of Terrorist Financing and Financial Crime at the U.S. Department of the Treasury. He holds a Masters degree in International Affairs from Columbia University's School of International and Public Affairs and completed his undergraduate studies at Boston College and the London School of Economics and Political Science.

For more information: www.loc.gov/crsinfo/

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