Saudi Arabia United States Iran Jon Alterman CSIS

Home > Articles > 2009 > Interviews >

EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW
June 25, 2009

Quiet in the Kingdom, Reacting
to Turmoil in Iran
A Conversation with Jon Alterman

Editor's Note:

As the post-presidential election strife and government crackdown in Iran continue through a second week we took a look at the reaction to and impact of the turmoil on Saudi and American interests in the Gulf. We turned to Dr. Jon Alterman, Director of the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C. for his perspectives. Here for your consideration is the SUSRIS exclusive interview conducted by phone with Dr. Alterman on June 23, 2009. We invite your attention to the comprehensive bank of links covering US-Saudi-Iranian issues that follows the interview.

Quiet in the Kingdom, Reacting to Turmoil in Iran
A Conversation with Jon Alterman

Dr. Jon Alterman, Director, Middle East Program, CSIS SUSRIS: Thank you for taking time to share your thoughts on how the post-election developments in Iran might be seen through the lenses of Saudis and Americans who are focused on regional security challenges.

Let�s start with the Saudi and American approaches to Iran in recent years. Both have been nervous over Iranian expansion of influence, probably best characterized by Jordan�s King Adullah in 2004 as a �Shia crescent� over the region and bolstered during the summer of 2006 conflict between Israel and Hizballah in Lebanon. In the latter example the Kingdom labeled Hizballah�s backers � among them Iran � as embarking on �miscalculated adventures.�

Since then we have seen the Iranian nuclear program take center stage among the issues of concern to American and Saudi policymakers. At first Saudis expressed unease about the United States threats to use military means to inhibit development of an Iranian nuclear capability with potential consequences for America�s Gulf allies. Since Barack Obama was elected president � having campaigned on the promise to engage in dialogue with America�s adversaries � there have been reports that Gulf Arab leaders worried Washington would reach a deal with Tehran without regard to their interests.

How do you see this background shaping reactions to the current developments in Iran?

ALTERMAN: There�s an underlying difference in how Iran is perceived by Saudis and Americans. The Saudis, and many of their Arab allies in the Gulf, see Iran as a long-term threat, regardless of who�s in power in Tehran. This isn�t about the Islamic Republic. It�s about traditional Persian ambitions, as they see it, on the southern shores of the Gulf.

By contrast the United States continues to try to fix its relationship with Iran. The Americans have the sense that this is a solvable problem if the United States and its allies are only able to do the right thing. But many of Iran�s neighbors don�t see this as solvable -- it�s a problem that needs to be managed. So between the Gulf Arab desire to manage the problem and the American impatience to solve it, there are sometimes tensions between the two sides.

SUSRIS: Are Saudis and others in the Arab Gulf thinking strategically and the Americans are not?

ALTERMAN: Well, Americans are thinking strategically too, but there�s an optimism that problems can be solved and put behind our country. I think a Gulf Arab conclusion is that the problems, the threats they face from Iran, aren�t about the Shah, they�re not about Ayatollah Khomenei, they�re not about Mohammad Khatami or Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. They�re about the traditional imperial ambition emanating from Tehran.

The view of many in the Gulf is that the United States may play a more prominent role in the Gulf or a less prominent role in the Gulf, but whatever happens, the Iranians will still be there.

SUSRIS: In the period since the Iranian presidential election on June 15 what are the issues you think have to be on the minds of the leadership in Riyadh as they look across the Gulf and see the situation unfolding?

ALTERMAN: Well as I said, there�s not a sense that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is the core of Gulf insecurity so the demise of Ahmadinejad wouldn�t resolve Saudi fears about Iranian ambitions. Certainly the prospect of instability in Iran is worrying. I don�t think there�s the concern about a contagion in Iranian politics, that people taking to the streets in Iran is going to create political instability in Saudi Arabia. The politics have been so different, are so different, and will be so different. It�s an apples and oranges comparison.

SUSRIS: Setting aside Iranian personalities what would be the view from Riyadh in terms of the instability as a plus or minus � questions about the stability of the regime in Tehran, divisions among the leadership?

ALTERMAN: It is more likely that you�ll see divisions in the Iranian clerical establishment rather than its collapse. I would imagine the situation will make the Saudis especially cautious to ensure that the establishment, the Saudi religious establishment, stays on the same page. But I think the Saudis are generally cautious about that anyway.

SUSRIS: Will it be more difficult from the Saudi perspective to be able to resolve some of the pressing issues, especially the nuclear issue, and to deal with Iran, to deal with a regime that now may not be as unified or one that is not speaking with one certain voice or has difficulties charting the path ahead?

ALTERMAN: I think at the end of the day, Iran will have a more unified leadership, and that end of the day is not going to be a year from now, it�s going to be several months from now. And I don�t see the nuclear issue coming to a head before that.

SUSRIS: How might Saudi Arabia see the internal disruptions in Iran influencing their domestic situation?

ALTERMAN: Iranian politics are just really different from Saudi politics, and they have been and will be. The way Iranians talk about politics is entirely different from the way the Saudis do. So I don�t think there�s any sort of imminent contagion effect or domino effect or anything else. Saudi Arabia has a distinctive culture. Iran has a distinctive culture. And they�re extraordinarily different.

SUSRIS: Why do you think there hasn�t been very much discussion of the events in Iran in Saudi media and elsewhere?

ALTERMAN: The Saudi press has often been cautious about things with very uncertain outcomes. I don�t think this is out of fear. Saudi Arabia�s capacity to shape the threats around it is less than Saudi Arabia often likes. And until they know which way things are going, on a whole range of questions, you�ll see the Saudi press will be extraordinarily quiet.

SUSRIS: What other consequences might there be, especially regarding the Sunni-Shia issue within the Kingdom?

ALTERMAN: It really depends on where the dust settles both in terms of the political leadership and the clerical leadership. The response to Ahmadinejad has often been to fear him, but try to draw him in. Whether Ahmadinejad would pursue the same strategy towards the Gulf and whether the Gulf States would pursue the same strategy towards him when all the dust settles is unclear.

Mousavi ran on a platform of reducing Iran�s tensions with the world. In the event you see a different leadership, Mousavi or somebody else � someone who�s determined to improve the relationship with its neighbors � it could mean a reduction in tensions, a reduction in the sort of threat of instability that many of the Gulf States feel. It requires a shift in the Iranian strategy. That is one potential outcome of what�s happening, but it�s not a certainty at all. And it doesn�t require a change in the Iranian leadership.

SUSRIS: Can you comment on some of the other regional challenges for Saudi Arabia and the United States posed by Iran, such as support to Hezbollah and Hamas?

ALTERMAN: It�s not clear whether the conflict will leave Ahmadinejad more isolated and determined, or whether he will feel more self-confident. All these things are still playing out. The key issue, it seems to me, is not what�s happening on the streets, but what�s happening in places like the Assembly of Experts � places where we have almost no insight. That�s the real threat. Not that there�s going to be, at least I don�t think, that there will be a revolution in Iran, but the clerical leadership could split in a significant way, which could result in changes to Iranian strategy.

SUSRIS: Any final thoughts on the implications of the situation in Iran on U.S. and Saudi relationships, and the regional challenges?

ALTERMAN: The Saudis must feel reassured that the United States has been more measured, has been more cautious, and has been more modest about its capacity to shape what�s happening on the ground. That�s often the way Saudis feel about global affairs, and I think that they feel they now have a U.S. government that thinks more in line with them.

They don�t want the United States to be impulsive, but they also don�t want the United States to be passive. In my conversations with Arabs in the Gulf I�ve found that they are happy with the tone of the Obama Administration, they just want to make sure that there�s some muscle behind it.

My sense is that for the most part, the Obama Administration, to them, has been playing this well, but there may come a time when they hope that the Administration will be more active.

SUSRIS: Thank you for sharing your perspective on these important events.

About Jon Alterman

Jon Alterman is director and senior fellow of the CSIS Middle East Program. Prior to joining CSIS, he served as a member of the Policy Planning Staff at the U.S. Department of State and as a special assistant to the assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern affairs. He served as an expert adviser to the Iraq Study Group (also known as the Baker-Hamilton Commission) and is a professorial lecturer at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.

Before entering government, he was a scholar at the U.S. Institute of Peace and at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. From 1993 to 1997, Alterman was an award-winning teacher at Harvard University, where he received his Ph.D. in history. He also worked as a legislative aide to Senator Daniel P. Moynihan (D-NY), responsible for foreign policy and defense. Alterman has lectured in more than 20 countries on subjects related to the Middle East and U.S. policy toward the region.

He is the author or coauthor of three books on the Middle East and the editor of a fourth. In addition to his academic work, he is a frequent commentator in print, on radio, and on television. His opinion pieces have appeared in the Washington Post, Los Angeles Times, Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, Asharq al-Awsat, and other major publications. He is a member of the editorial boards of the Middle East Journal and Transnational Broadcasting Studies and is a former International Affairs Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.

CSIS Profile - Jon B. Alterman

Related Items - On Topic

Related Items - Jon Alterman

Saudi-US Relations Information Service
eMail: [email protected]
Web: http://www.Saudi-US-Relations.org
� 2009
Users of the The Saudi-US Relations Information Service are assumed to have read and agreed to our terms and conditions and legal disclaimer contained on the SUSRIS.org Web site.