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ITEM OF INTEREST
June 26, 2009

The Events in Iran: Arab Reactions
Entering a New Era

Editor's Note:

The post-election turmoil that erupted in Iran this month stands to reshape not only the domestic landscape, but also Tehran's behavior in the region and its relations with the West. This is the argument made by Gamal A. G. Soltan, a senior research fellow at Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies in Cairo and a visiting professor of political science at The American University in Cairo, in this weeks issue of Bitterlemons. Soltan calls for new approaches by the United States in its relationship with Iran as he sees the Tehran regime's loss of legitimacy resulting in increased regional adventurism. We thank Bitterlemons for permission to share this article with you today.

The Bitterlemons.org Web site is an excellent source for essays, interviews and articles on the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and related regional developments. You can find more at Bitterlemons-International.org including this week's edition with the other articles on the topic, "The events in Iran: Arab reactions." 

We also suggest that you check out this week's SUSRIS exclusive interview with Jon Alterman, Director of the CSIS Middle East program, that addressed Saudi and American reactions to the strife in Iran.

Iran is in crisis; so is the Middle East
Gamal A. G. Soltan

For months, major regional and international actors were waiting for the conclusion of Iran's presidential elections. The prevalent feeling was that a new beginning in Middle East politics should follow those elections. US President Barack Obama's overture toward Iran was thought to be effective in bringing about changes in Iranian foreign policy. Even many of those who had doubts about the usefulness of Obama's initiative thought it should at least be tested before being discarded. Thus both believers and skeptics were looking forward to the conclusion of Iran's presidential election campaign so that Obama's Iran and Middle East policy could be assessed. 

While interested parties were getting ready to deal with either a radical Iran under the renewed leadership of Mahmoud Ahmadinezhad or a moderate Iran under the leadership of one of the reformist candidates, it seems that now we have to deal with an unstable Iran, a scenario that was never seriously contemplated. While attempts to reconcile the Iranian political factions have not yet been abandoned, developments indicate that a break between the two main factions is the likely outcome of the current crisis. Coexistence between conservatives and reformists in Iran's politics is finally coming to an end. The Iranian regime that is likely to take shape in the aftermath of the current crisis will be a narrow-based conservative regime. Reformists are likely to be turned into a permanent opposition in Iranian politics that seeks the transformation rather than the reform of the regime of the Islamic Republic. 

The image of the Iranian regime has been badly hurt as a result of the events that have unfolded since the beginning of the electoral campaign. In particular, the ten days that followed election day have deeply undermined Iran's stature and reputation. The portrayal of Iran as the country that was able to reconcile the prolonged conflict between Islam and democracy was among the most effective assets employed by Iranian elites to mobilize support for the Islamic Republic among Muslims all over the world. The current crisis in Iran indicates that the time for a divorce between the Islamic and the republican elements of the Iranian model has arrived. 


Electoral fraud and brutal suppression of protesters are undermining Iran's image among Muslims in the Middle East and beyond. The Iranian regime can no longer claim the legitimacy and integrity it professed for decades. Erosion of the legitimacy of Iran's model of Islamic republic will now definitely affect the balance of power between moderates and radicals in the Middle East--and not in favor of the latter. 

The balance of power among the Muslim countries of the Middle East is more about soft than hard power. "Balance of legitimacy" might be a more useful term to explain Middle East politics. Undermining the legitimacy of the Iranian regime denies Iran a significant part of the mobilizing force it used to enjoy all over the Middle East. It limits Iran's ability to inspire and manipulate masses in the Middle East and beyond. 

Iranian politics is entering a new era characterized by a shattered national consensus, a limited regime support base and full control by extreme religious conservative forces. Dealing with Iran in this new era is like walking uncharted terrain. During the months, maybe years to come, the Iranian ruling elite will be more concerned than ever about self legitimization and regime consolidation. The irony of the current situation is that a shaky Iranian regime could be a destabilizing force in the Middle East. Foreign adventures could be the strategy of Iran's ruling elite to reestablish its grip on power at home. It could be useful in the uncertainty of the current days to revisit the 30 year-old tragedy of the American hostages in Tehran for lessons learned. 

Click here for alrger map.Hitherto, the combination of an Islamic Republic at home and a defiant power abroad has proved to be extremely effective in the consolidation of Iran's regional influence. Losing a significant part of legitimacy at home is likely to reorient the attention of Iran's ruling elite outward. Emphasizing Iran's image as the leading defiant power in the Middle East is likely to be Iran's strategy in response to the current crisis. Operationalizing such a strategy could entail an escalation of violence and instability in the region. Proxy conflicts in Lebanon and Gaza during the past three years proved instrumental for the consolidation of Iran's regional influence. Escalation on either or both fronts is likely in the aftermath of Iran's presidential elections. 

The current crisis in Iran has brought to an end a short-lived relaxation in Iranian-western relations. The recent tension between Iran and the western powers, including the US, renders the long-awaited rapprochement between the two sides unlikely, at least in the short run. Dialogue with Iran has become a costly option for President Obama as well as for other western leaders. The US now needs to come up with new alternatives to Obama's policy of engaging Iran.

- Published 25/6/2009 � bitterlemons-international.org

Gamal A. G. Soltan is a senior research fellow in Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies in Cairo and a visiting professor of political science at The American University in Cairo.

Published Jun 26, 2009 � bitterlemons-international.org

[Reprinted with permission of "bitterlemons"]

Edition 24 Volume 7 - June 25, 2009
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